NFL Week 5 Teaser Legs: Two Teams Fit Best

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 6, 2022
NFL week 5 teasers

Teaser bets remain a popular option with many NFL bettors. But, you must use caution when selecting which teams you’ll tease, as you can’t win long term without a sound strategy. At TheLines, we’ll go over each week’s NFL slate to see which teams fit best in teasers. Today, we look at options for NFL Week 5 teasers.

Week 4 teaser legs went 3-3 overall, with the premium spots stumbling to 1-2 while the more speculative plays went 2-1. That’s never a good thing for your weekly teaser bottom line.

Be sure to go over our primer on teaser bets hereIt’s imperative that you understand what to look for, from the numbers to the sportsbook juice being paid. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now.

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The Best NFL Week 5 Teasers

At long last, a big favorite sneaks into the top teaser plays, along with another underdog option.

Packers (-8) Vs. Giants

How does fading Davis Webb and only laying -2 sound? OK, so that’s probably a farfetched scenario given that the Giants opted not to sign any of the dreck they worked out this week. But still, it can’t be ruled out, what with Daniel Jones hobbled and Tyrod Taylor likely out in concussion protocol.

With the Packers squarely in the teaser zone and the total almost as low as it gets, this looks like a dreamy spot.

Even if Jones plays, much of his value-add has come from his legs this year. He actually has just one fewer TD running (2) compared to passing (3), and he averages more YPA rushing (6.2) than passing (6). PFF also grades his rushing prowess slightly above his passing this season. That rushing threat figures to be limited.

With no good and healthy receivers left to sweat, the Packers can move away from their usual light boxes and focus on shutting down Saquon Barkley.

About the only concern here comes from the London travel. Teams could always come out sleepy and underperform.

Commanders (+2.5) Vs. Titans

Since an opening week victory, the Commanders have been a money sink. The market does not seem to have a good read on just how bad this team is, but perhaps that has changed. Home underdogs to a mediocre Titans team in a game with a low total means this belongs on the NFL Week 5 teasers radar.

One concern always looms that makes the Commanders a riskier teaser play: Carson Wentz. He displays wildly vacillating levels of play, and his lows can blow up even the dreamiest of spots. A pick-six always looms.

The worrisome aspect of this game is the fact the Titans bring a pretty strong pass rush to the table. Difficulty making decisions under pressure has vexed Wentz his whole career and been on display in recent losses to the Eagles and Cowboys.

On a brighter note, though, the Commanders defense should have some success here. They’ve been quite stout against the run, ranking fourth in EPA/play allowed. Ryan Tannehill has been solid for the Titans, but he looks severely short on weapons with Treylon Burks out of an already thin group. The Titans also run the ball at the seventh-highest rate, so they don’t figure to exploit Washington’s weak secondary.

Other Potential NFL Week 5 Teasers

Browns (+2.5) Vs. Chargers

The Browns merit a look of some kind this week, as colleague Eli Hershkovich detailed in his picks column this week. The line here moved off of the look-ahead number even though the Browns really should have won the game and probably scored close to 30 on the Falcons.

Granted, the Chargers did play better and Justin Herbert looked more like his normal self.

But, they still have a clear weakness defending the run (28th in EPA/play allowed). The Browns, with a killer offensive line and two dynamic RBs, can exploit that better than almost anyone. And Myles Garrett looks likely to return, a massive boost to the defense.

The higher total and the potential for a negative game script push this into the more speculative range. If the Browns fall behind and wind up in a must-pass situation, Jacoby Brissett doesn’t seem likely to bring them back by hurling the rock all over the field. He’s at his best in a methodical, play-action set-up.

Vikings (-7.5) Vs. Bears

It’s certainly a nice matchup for the Vikings. The Bears bring the most anemic passing game in the NFL (in modern history?) to the table. That sets up nicely for a team that just got wrecked by the likes of Andy Dalton and backup WRs.

The Vikes offense should move the rock plenty as well. Nobody on the Bears can hope to match up with Justin Jefferson, and opposing running games have done well.

Many of the scenarios where the Vikings dominate will see them cover -7.5 pretty easily because of putting a bad passing offense in a negative script. That can have a compounding effect. That’s perhaps a reason to not risk needing a second leg in a teaser.

Chiefs (-7) Vs. Raiders

Surely, many bettors will find themselves tempted to tease the Chiefs. A combination of too high a total and the Chiefs sitting on -7 makes this an unappealing teaser play in all facets. Furthermore, divisional favorites tend to be some of the iffiest plays in general as quite a bit of variance exists.

If you like the Chiefs, just lay the -7. They annihilated the Raiders by a combined 66 in two meetings last year. Buying points seems nonsensical here.

Jaguars (-7) Vs. Texans

Again, we don’t quite have the right teaser number here with the Jags no longer giving the hook after some -7.5s hung on the board early in the week.

Still, this one does have a bit more appeal than the other -7s on the board in some senses. The Jaguars are coming off their worst performance of the season, a weather-aided turnover-fest that saw Trevor Lawrence fumble four times. That doesn’t seem predictive at all.

The total also sits lower than the two prior games.

On the other hand, the Texans in a negative script on the road, where Davis Mills has been awful, also lends itself to plenty of double-digit wins.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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