Teaser bets remain a popular option with many NFL bettors. But, you must use caution when selecting which teams you’ll tease, as you can’t win long-term without a sound strategy. At TheLines, we’ll go over each week’s NFL slate to see which teams fit best in teasers. Today, we look at options for NFL Week 5 teasers.
The Best NFL Week 5 Teasers
NFL Week 5 teasers have three pretty good spots that look to check most of the boxes — a home underdog, a home favorite and a road underdog. We’ll tackle them in that order.
Football Team (+1.5) Vs. Saints
The Washington Football Team remains perhaps the biggest enigma in the league.
Expected to be a defensive juggernaut, they allowed 30 to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4, in a game we highlighted as teaser-worthy on the Falcons side. That continued their trend of struggles. They rank an incredibly disappointing 28th in DVOA on that end.
The offense has been forced to air it out with Taylor Heinicke to mixed results. He’s had some ugly turnovers in the early going.
But while that end of the matchup looks unappetizing, we have to consider how unexciting this Saints offense has been, both thus far and on paper. The receiving corps remains a wasteland, and QB Jameis Winston simply can’t do much with these weapons. It’s just very difficult to cover big numbers like -7.5 when your offense is so ground-bound and slow.
The total tells the tale. As long as Heinicke doesn’t turn the ball over repeatedly, the Saints will have a tough time running away from the Football Team.
Vikings (-7.5) Vs. Lions
After playing some competitive football for the first three weeks, the Lions seemed to regress in Week 4. They got shredded for 10.3 yards per play through the air against a Bears offense that had been comically inept throwing the ball with Justin Fields.
Perhaps losing two-deep corners Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu has caught up to this team. It was a poor pass defense on paper entering the season, so credit the Lions staff for getting them to play halfway decent football until Week 4.
And while the Lions have had a solid pass rush so far, their talent level doesn’t look very impressive. They also just lost Romeo Okwara for the season to an injury.
If you give Kirk Cousins time in the pocket, he will shred you. And everyone knows the Vikes have an elite receiver tandem in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
Teasing a home favorite down with a manageable total looks pretty good here.
Browns (+1.5) At Chargers
Teasing road favorites can get a little hairy, but how about this road underdog as Cleveland heads to LA to face the Chargers?
The Browns have played some outstanding defense thus far. Sure, the Chiefs shredded them pretty good after being held down for a bit, but this unit has been aces since. The advanced stats have begun taking notice — they’re third in defensive DVOA and eighth in defensive EPA per play.
They get a very fun matchup against excellent young Chargers QB Justin Herbert. While Herbert has had a ton of success already, a surprisingly decent Raiders defense did fine against him on Monday, holding the Chargers to 5.2 yards per play and 5.1 through the air.
That sort of grinding offense will let the Browns hang around in this one at a minimum.
The worry here: a Cleveland offense that remains inconsistent through the air. They looked good for the first couple of weeks, but they struggled against the Bears in Week 3, and Baker Mayfield missed several easy long completions to Odell Beckham Jr. last week. They got away with it because the defense played stellar, but at some point, these misses will prove costly.
Other Potential NFL Week 5 Teasers
While these three look like the best options, a few speculative NFL Week 5 teaser candidates exist, per usual. Each one has varying levels of concern attached to it, so use your own judgment on how aggressive you like to be with these.
Seahawks (+2.5) Vs. Rams
For the third week in a row, the Thursday game features a potential teaser play. Except after two straight week of the favorites coming through, we need to look at the underdog.
The Seahawks and Rams have played some close games in recent years. If you expect more of the same, then you’ll love teasing the Seahawks up to a big +8.5 number rather than hoping 2 points proves enough.
A few issues with this one. First, you’re buying the Seahawks high. They defeated the 49ers in fairly convincing fashion despite looking pretty awful in the first half — they picked up a first down for the first time with under five minutes left. That in itself should probably scare you, in fact.
Second, you’re selling the Rams low after the Cardinals trounced them in LA. QB Matt Stafford had some odd misses in this one that seem fairly easy to clean up going forward.
Finally, the total of looks prohibitively high for teaser purposes.
Broncos (+1) At Steelers
This game appears to check the teaser boxes at first glance, especially if you can get +1.5. Only one sportsbook tracked by TheLines, FanDuel Sportsbook, has this number hanging at the time of writing.
In any case, the total is also a teaser player’s dream: at , it’s one of the season’s lowest thus far.
Plus, fading the Steelers looks pretty smart right now. They’ve fallen well short of market expectations three straight games, so it seems pretty clear the numbers are off on them. Whether that has been fixed this week is anyone’s guess.
The problem here is Drew Lock. He seems likely to draw a spot start with Teddy Bridgewater dealing with concussion protocol. Not only has Lock been awful as a pro QB thus far, but his volatility — 19 INTs in 19 career appearances — makes a teaser unappetizing as he introduces a large amount of variance into the outcome.
Selling points seems superior to buying them if you like Denver here.
Cowboys (-7) Vs. Giants
The Cowboys figure to be a popular teaser side this week. You don’t have to think too hard to see why.
The offense has been awesome in the early going. The Panthers defense had dominated an admittedly easy schedule. Dallas completely obliterated them, especially on the ground, where they gained 7.2 YPA.
And the defense has performed surprisingly well, bringing a ton of youth and speed to the table. Micah Parsons has flown around the field even if he struggles at times with play action, and CB Trevon Diggs has made a ton of highlight-reel plays. The unit ranks top-10 in both EPA/play and DVOA.
Some of the issues outlined above hurt this one. The total is slightly higher than we’d like. And the -7 line isn’t quite where you want the teaser buy.
If you like Dallas, probably best to just take them there.
Ravens (-7) Vs. Colts
Like the previous game, this one just misses the teaser zone by a hair. But, if you don’t mind teasing -7 lines, this one does look pretty good. For starters, it does have a nice low total of .
Baltimore matches up pretty well against the Colts offense, particularly with the injuries that have reduced this offensive line — they missed their two best starters, Braden Smith and Quenton Nelson, against Miami. An inexperienced unit and a pressure-averse QB on the road could be a recipe for disaster against the sophisticated Ravens blitz packages.
The Colts offense managed by running the ball against Miami, but the Ravens won’t struggle to break 20 in all likelihood.
Worse spots exist for NFL Week 5 teasers than a solid favorite at home in a good matchup.