NFL Week 5 Look-Ahead Lines: Chiefs and Bills AFC Championship Rematch

Written By FairwayJay on September 30, 2021
week 5 look-ahead lines

The Week 5 look-ahead lines can help bettors gain an edge or find value in the lines and odds without overreacting to upcoming games and results. Injuries impact line moves, and betting activity dictates adjustments with most bettors supporting favorites despite underdogs going 30-18 ATS thus far this season through Week 3.

Football betting angles and preseason betting lines on every game are another way to monitor betting lines and determine potential value in weekly match-ups.

The Week 5 lookahead lines include some key match-ups to follow and monitor as the Week 4 games play out. The Rams and Seahawks division duel kicks off the week Thursday. There are four division contests in Week 5 including the other NFC West showdown between the 49ers and Cardinals.

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NFL WEEK 5 LOOK-AHEAD LINES

The Chiefs and Bills AFC Championship rematch is the Sunday Night Football special with betting in New York driving an expected huge handle, and totals betting supporting another potential shootout in prime time action. Prime time games are 8-1 over the total this season through three weeks.

NFL Week 5FanDuel Line
Rams at SeahawksLA -1.5
Jets at FalconsATL -4
Eagles at PanthersCAR -3.5
Dolphins at BuccaneersTB -10
Saints at WFTNO -1.5
Titans at JaguarsTEN -7
Lions at VikingsMIN -7
Broncos at SteelersDEN -1.5
Packers at Bengals GB -3.5
Patriots at TexansNE -7
Bears at RaidersLV -6.5
Browns at ChargersLA -1
Giants at CowboysDAL -8
49ers at Cardinals AZ -1.5
Bills at ChiefsKC -3.5
Colts at RavensBAL -6.5

WEEK 5 PRIMETIME GAMES

Thursday Night Football Week 5 Odds

Prime time games have been high scoring affairs through three weeks and have gone over the total in 8-of-9 contests averaging 55.9 points per game. Thursday Night Football will feature the Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks in a NFC West showdown to kickoff Week 5 prime time action.

The Rams remain undefeated and have a Week 4 first place showdown with the 3-0 Arizona Cardinals. Last year, the Rams and Seahawks split their two regular season contests with each home team winning low-scoring games. The Rams beat the Seahawks 30-20 at Seattle in the wild card playoff round.

Sunday Night Football Week 5 Odds

Last week’s thrilling finish between the Packers and 49ers was the most watched Sunday Night Football game since 2015. It produced a total audience delivery of 21 million viewers. For the first time since 2016, NBC Sports has presented an NFL game averaging 20+ million viewers in each of the season’s first three weeks.

The Week 5 Sunday Night Football match-up should deliver a massive audience and betting handle again when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game won by the Chiefs, 38-24. The Chiefs started the season as favorites to win the 2022 Super Bowl, and are still slight favorites at +600 despite starting 1-2 and sitting in last place in the tough AFC West.

Monday Night Football Week 5 Odds

The Baltimore Ravens appear on Monday Night Football for the second time this season when they host the Indianapolis Colts on Oct. 11. The Colts are one of the major disappointments to start the season at 0-3. Indianapolis is an underdog in Week 4 at Miami and Week 5 at Baltimore before returning home as a favorite against division rival Houston.

POTENTIAL WEEK 4 IMPACT ON WEEK 5 LOOK-AHEAD LINES

Dolphins at Buccaneers

A home loss by the Miami Dolphins versus the Indianapolis Colts would likely send the Week 5 line higher against the Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are a 10-point home favorite, and bettors realize the potential blowout potential with Miami losing at home to Buffalo 35-0 in Week 2.

Tampa Bay has become a popular team to bet on with QB Brady, yet the Buccaneers rush offense ranks last in the NFC averaging just 56 rushing yards per game through three weeks. The Dolphins running game is averaging just 92 yards per game, and Miami will face it’s toughest test on the road against an elite Bucs defensive front that has allowed just 63 rushing yards per game this season.

Bills at Chiefs

The Bills blowout win over the WFT combined with another expected big win over Houston in Week 4 could move the line down to the key number 3 from the current lookahead line of Chiefs -3.5. Kansas City continues to generate great betting interest and support. But the difference in these two teams defenses is significant in the early season.

The Chiefs are allowing 430 yards per game at a league-worst 7.0 yards per play. The Bills are allowing just 252 yards per game at 4.3 yards per play. The Bills fourth-ranked scoring defense will likely hold their fourth straight opposing quarterback to under 250 passing yards in Week 4 at Houston, but that will be tough to do against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 5.

Note that the Bills defense has faced quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke and David Mills – all teams in the bottom third of scoring offenses. The Chiefs defense has gone against Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts in Week 4.

This game draws the highest quality and overall rating in Week 5, according to fivethirtyeight‘s prediction model and gives the Chiefs a 57% chance to win with a projected line of Kansas City -2.

Patriots at Texans

One of the most anticipated games of the season is Tampa Bay at New England. The Week 4 lookahead line at FanDuel Sportsbook had the Buccaneers a 5.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay is now a 7-point favorite at most sportsbook with Draftkings Sportsbook showing the Bucs as a 6.5-point favorite in the Sunday Night Football featured game.

The preseason betting line on every NFL game at DraftKings Sportsbook had the Buccaneers a 3-point favorite over the Patriots. It also had New England -6 at Houston, and the lookahead line is now Patriots -7. But the Patriots going from a 7-point home underdog to a 7-point road favorite at Houston on the lookahead line is an extreme adjustment.

New England could be 1-3 hitting the road against the preseason projected worst team of the Texans. The line is more likely to dip slightly that rise. Unless of course New England beats Brady and the Bucs in Week 4. Bookmakers are having a tough time getting bettors on board with Houston, and it’s not likely to change anytime soon.

OTHER WEEK 5 STORYLINES TO WATCH

Packers at Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals could be in solo first place if they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars as expected on Thursday Night Football, and the Browns and Ravens both lose on the road in tougher Week 4 matchups. The Week 5 lookahead line is Green Bay -3.5 at Cincinnati. The Bengals were picked for last in the AFC North with a season win total of 6.5.

HOW TO USE LOOK-AHEAD LINES

TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. Bookmakers begin posting these lines every Thursday — a full week before the ensuing week’s games on the schedule.

These look-ahead lines allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This information from a leading online sportsbook will help provide lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to overreact to the previous week’s scores and results. The Week 5 look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the oddsmaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines and odds once the current week’s lines are released. They not only apply that based on potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but also by using team-by-team insight.

That includes key injuries, travel and scheduling situations, and use of NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with accounting for teams’ strengths, weaknesses, against-the-spread angles and personnel matchups.

 

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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