NFL Week 5 Implied Team Totals: Bucs Expected To Return To High-Scoring Form

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 5, 2022
week 5 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 5 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 5 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Oct. 4, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 5 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under

Highest NFL Week 5 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

Buffalo Bills

The Bills experienced a second straight down offensive week, somewhat surprisingly in a spot where the market expected plenty of points. However, bad weather affected them, and keep in mind they knelt and killed the clock for a field goal rather than scoring a winning TD. So, their 23 points is a bit misleading.

One concern remains: the health of Gabe Davis. He had another very unproductive outing, and the offense has been too heavy on shorter stuff in his absence/ineffective period. To wit: Josh Allen’s 6.8 average depth of target ranks behind every other top-20 QB (by EPA/play) aside from Aaron Rodgers. Davis returning to 100% would greatly boost this offense’s explosiveness.

They have an interesting matchup this week against a solid Steelers group that ambushed them in Week 1 last year. One thing pointing to a potentially high score for Buffalo here is their tendency to soar past 30 in their blowout wins last year. In their 11 double-digit wins in 2021, the Bills surpassed 30 points all but three times. In two of the three in which they fell short, the games were close most of the way until the Bills pulled away late, too.

Under a new offensive coordinator, will that change in 2022? So far, the answer is no, with 72 combined points in their two blowouts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last year, the Buccaneers were a weekly staple of this article. This year, not so much, as the offense has gotten off to a very slow start. Before a 41-31 loss to the Chiefs (that included a meaningless late TD), the Bucs averaged 17 points in their first three games.

However, things may have meaningfully turned starting on Sunday Night Football. Mike Evans returned from suspension and Chris Godwin from injury. The offensive line did well protecting Tom Brady from a Chiefs pass rush that demolished the Colts line the week prior.

The Bucs scored 48 and 30 in two meetings with the Falcons last year, albeit with the aid of two defensive TDs in the former game. The Falcons do have a solid pair of corners, the Bucs would do well to get their running game going against this bottom-tier rush defense.

Lowest NFL Week 5 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers offense has struggled to a degree that even Panthers skeptics probably didn’t see coming. Sure, expectations weren’t terribly high for the Baker Mayfield/Matt Rhule pairing. But ranking dead last in offensive EPA/play with Mayfield playing arguably worse than any other starter in the league?

Playing the 49ers does not offer a great opportunity to right the ship. They just dominated the Rams to a stunning degree, holding the defending Super Bowl champs to a pathetic 3.6 YPA passing. Most of that came due to a ferocious pass rush, with plenty of well-timed blitzes thrown in.

The ray of hope for Mayfield is the team’s pass blocking has been decent thus far, with PFF rating the unit 11th.

The bad news is the 49ers have the linebacking speed to contain Christian McCaffrey’s receiving contributions, and S Talanoa Hufanga has been a ball-hawking demon so far this year. Mayfield will have his work cut out for him.

New York Giants

It’s a bit surprising that DraftKings even posted team total derivative markets here considering the uncertainty around the Giants QB situation. Daniel Jones exited last game with an ankle injury. Backup QB Tyrod Taylor left concussed. That left the Giants running a last-ditch wildcat offense headed by Saquon Barkley.

Not ideal. It worked against the Bears because of being the Bears.

While the Packers stink against the run, one would think they can simply play some heavier boxes and dare the Giants to beat them passing here. That’s a concerning situation when the best-case scenario involves a hobbled Jones throwing to David Sills V and Richie James.

Luckily for the Giants, early reports have Jones “moving well” in practice. The team didn’t sign any of the off-the-couch options who worked out, which also counts as a positive for Jones playing. However, he has gotten a lot of mileage out of his legs — he ran for 2 TDs against Chicago — and that seems unlikely to continue if he plays.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

New England Patriots

Other teams may rate lower in efficiency metrics, but no team has allowed opposing offenses to light up the scoreboard quite like the Detroit Lions. They are allowing a monstrous and basically unthinkable 35.3 PPG. That figure is so outrageous that the difference between the Lions and the 31st-ranked Seahawks is about the same as the difference between the Seahawks and 15th-ranked Steelers.

One would expect some positive regression sheerly due to that outlier status combined with a lower-scoring league environment in the early going. Could this week be the start of a positive step?

It very well could. It seems likely the Lions get to face third-string QB Bailey Zappe here. Zappe certainly didn’t embarrass himself when he entered in relief of Brian Hoyer last week. But, the offense did not ask much of him, as the running game and a pick-six did the heavy lifting.

Good news for Zappe and Co.: the Lions rank dead last in run defense DVOA.

Indianapolis Colts

Another week, another poor offensive performance from the Colts. Sure, the numbers look better on the surface as Matt Ryan posted a more than healthy 8.2 YPA dropping back.

However, much of that came with the team down big. He remains far too reliant on targeting tight ends, sending the ball their way on 11 of his 36 attempts. That would be fine we were talking about Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, but it’s Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson on the receiving end of these.

Turnovers remain a huge problem, with three more giveaways against the Titans. Unfortunately, given Ryan’s inability to read or especially escape a rush, that looks predictive.

While the Broncos offense has sputtered early, the defense has been fine aside from a bizarre inability to stop the Raiders running game. The pass rush looks solid, ranking fifth in PFF’s grades and seventh in sack rate. Jonathan Taylor pounding the rock here would potentially be a big help, but he looks unlikely to play.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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