NFL Week 5 Implied Team Totals: Chiefs, Bills Expected To Light Up Scoreboard

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 5, 2021
NFL Week 5 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 5 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 5 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Oct. 4, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 5 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Saints23Football TeamAway-1.544.5
Football Team22SaintsHome1.544.5

NFL Week 5 Projected Points Analysis

Highest Week 5 Implied Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

Fans hoping for a primetime shootout will likely get their wish. The Bills and Chiefs have one of the highest projected totals of the year, and since the market expects a close battle — — that means, by extension, both teams have high implied team totals. While the Bills just missed this list, the Chiefs top it once again.

The KC defense again looked vulnerable as the team struggled to distance itself from Philly despite the offense putting up touchdown after touchdown. The team had success shutting down the Bills last season, though. They allowed a total of 41 in two contests. Will that success carry over despite the team’s lackluster start?

Undoubtedly, the Cowboys have showcased one of the most impressive offenses in the NFL this year. Football Outsiders had them sixth in offensive DVOA entering Week 4. All they did was gash a previously dominant Panthers defense for 36 points and 7.7 YPP. Their offensive line has returned to dominating form, as they followed up a 160-yard effort against the Eagles with a monster 245-yard day on Sunday.

They do face another solid defense in the Giants this week.

Previously Football Outsiders’ No. 1 offense, the Rams finally showed some cracks on Sunday. Matt Stafford had a few head-scratching misses. A Seahawks unit that’s been beatable through the air awaits on Thursday. But the way these teams have played each other over the years, it’s anyone’s guess how that will go.

Lowest Week 5 Implied Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

The Texans “lead” this group for the second straight week. After initially looking like it might be somewhat survivable, the Davis Mills experience turned into the disaster his pre-draft detractors predicted.

Mills put up a microscopic 0.8 QBR against Buffalo. At one point, he was 1-for-7 with three sacks (another eliminated by a penalty), two INTs and one fumble. A few fans in the crowd may have been able to put together a better line.

The Patriots defense, meanwhile, looked in vintage form on Sunday night in holding the high-powered Bucs to 5.1 YPP. It’s hard to imagine how this goes well for Mills and the boys.

Speaking of the Bucs, they brought a fierce blitz to bear against Mac Jones and the Pats. Jones weathered the storm and made some plays. Can Jacoby Brissett do the same? After watching two straight weeks of agonizing dink-and-dunk play, the market appears skeptical. A Dolphins offensive line that’s bottom-10 in adjusted sack rate looks like easy pickings as well.

Teddy Bridgewater was one of the heroes of the early parts of the season. He led the Broncos to a 3-0 start and crept up on the MVP boards to a not-impossible price. That’s on ice now as he entered concussion protocol.

Should Drew Lock start, he’ll find himself against the ferocious Steelers pass rush, rejuvenated with the return of TJ Watt. Oh, and the Broncos might still miss multiple rotation receivers and offensive linemen. On the road. Best of luck to Lock. Keep an eye on this situation as Coach Vic Fangio said Bridgewater may still return to start this week.

Other Notable Team Totals

Another injury situation to keep watch in NFL Week 5 implied team totals: the Tennessee Titans receivers. We highlighted this one in the weekly injury rundown, and sure enough, the Titans struggled mightily. While they gained 430 yards, it took a whopping 93 plays to get there for a piddling 4.6 average.

Derrick Henry did what he could, but having the backup RB lead the team in targets, receptions and yards simply won’t produce sustainable offense in the NFL in 2021.

The market forecasts a fairly solid 26 points in a plus matchup against the poor Jags pass defense, but Ryan Tannehill looks toothless without his studs out wide.

The team that beat the Titans, meanwhile, has gained some market respect. The Jets had looked as inept as possible on offense in the opening weeks.

But, was that simply a product of playing an especially nasty slate of opposing defenses?

Perhaps Zach Wilson can bring some competence after all. He showed off his arm with some excellent throws, even if he did still miss a fair fairly easy ones. He could potentially keep it rolling against the Falcons, who have one of the worst defenses in the league.

Finally, keep tabs on how the 49ers offense performs this week. What adjustments will Kyle Shanahan make now that he has the ultra-mobile Trey Lance at QB?

Lance put together a fairly decent stat line — 9-for-18 for 157 yards and 2 TDs — but that was buoyed by a comical busted coverage for a completely uncovered 76-yard TD.

The offense as a whole looked stuck in mud. A Cardinals D performing above market expectations so far will bring pressure.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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