NFL Week 5 Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

Written By Justin Russo on October 7, 2022
steelers bills odds

The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) visit the Buffalo Bills (3-1) at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 9. Steelers Bills odds sits at Buffalo spread favorites, with Pittsburgh underdogs on the moneyline. The point total is set at .

This article breaks down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

STEELERS BILLS ODDS: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the table above, you can use the dropdown menu to switch the type of bet from the Steelers-Bills spread to the type that you want to view.

The table shows some different types of bets that you can make on the game. One is the point spread. This means you will bet on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign next to the number indicates that a team is an underdog, while a “minus” sign indicates that a team is the favorite. For example, the Bills are -14 this weekend. If you bet on Buffalo, they would need to win by 15 points or more for you to win your bet. If you bet on Pittsburgh, they would need to lose by 13 points or fewer, or win the game outright for you to win your bet. A push comes into play if Buffalo wins by exactly 14 points.

Another type of bet is a moneyline bet. This is simply a bet on which team wins the game.

Then there’s the point total. Bettors can choose whether the total number of points scored in the game will be over or under the number listed.


In addition to betting on traditional Steelers Bills odds, you can use the props tool on our site to search for proposition bets for any team or player. You’ll get results for which bets are available across multiple sportsbooks and at which price. This is a great tool for comparing different numbers and prices to ensure that you make the best bet when the time comes.


Below you’ll find additional betting angles and updates leading up to Sunday’s game.


Before betting Steelers Bills odds, it’s always important to check the Buffalo weather. As of Thursday afternoon, the weather forecast calls for 58 degrees and 17 mph winds at kickoff. Weather shouldn’t be a large factor on Sunday but beware of the potentially high winds affecting the passing game.


Pittsburgh Injuries

Diontae JohnsonWRHipQuestionable
Cameron SuttonCBGroin/HamstringQuestionable
Akhello WitherspoonCBHamstringQuestionable
Levi WallaceCBFootQuestionable
Terrell EdmundsSConcussionQuestionable
Minkah FitzpatrickSKneeQuestionable
Mason ColeCFootQuestionable
Chris WormleyDEAnkleQuestionable
Cameron HeywardDTAnkle/ElbowQuestionable

Buffalo Injuries

Christian BenfordCBHandQuestionable
Jamison CrowderWRAnkleQuestionable
Gabe DavisWRAnkleProbable
Tremaine EdmundsMLBHamstringQuestionable
Dawson KnoxTEFoot/HamstringQuestionable
Jake KumerowWRAnkleQuestionable
Cam LewisCBForearm/KneeProbable
Isaiah McKenzieWRConcussionQuestionable
Mitch MorseCElbowQuestionable
Justin MurrayOTFootQuestionable
Ed OliverDTAnkleQuestionable
Jordan PhillipsDTHamstringQuestionable
Jordan PoyerFSRibsQuestionable


Steelers OStats (Rank)Bills D
18.5 (24th)Points/Gm14.5 (2nd)
0.316 (17th)Points/Play0.261 (4th)
278.8 (30th)Yards/Gm234.5 (T-1st)
181.5 (28th)Pass Yards/Gm150.8 (1st)
97.3 (23rd)Rush Yards/Gm83.8 (3rd)
4.8 (30th)Yards/Play4.2 (2nd)
6.0 (30th)Yards/Pass5.3 (4th)
4.0 (23rd)Yards/Rush3.5 (4th)
37.25% (20th)3rd Down %41.30 (19th)
66.67% (6th)Red Zone TD %70.0% (24th)
1.8 (T-22nd)Turnovers2.3 (T-3rd)
2.0 (T-15th)Sacks3.3 (5th)


Bills OStats (Rank)Steelers D
28.5 (5th)Points/Gm22.5 (15th)
0.415 (8th)Points/Play0.302 (9th)
412.5 (3rd)Yards/Gm383.0 (24th)
297.0 (2nd)Pass Yards/Gm251.5 (21st)
115.5 (12th)Rush Yards/Gm131.5 (24th)
6.0 (6th)Yards/Play5.1 (12th)
7.2 (16th)Yards/Pass6.4 (12th)
4.8 (11th)Yards/Rush4.0 (10th)
55.77% (1st)3rd Down %45.31 (26th)
64.29% (10th)Red Zone TD %60.0% (18th)
1.8 (T-22nd)Turnovers2.0 (6th)
2.0 (T-15th)Sacks2.5 (12th)


Why The Steelers Can Cover The Spread

Kenny Pickett did just what head coach Mike Tomlin wanted last week and provided a spark for Pittsburgh’s offense. The three interceptions look bad on paper but one was on a hail mary and the other two both hit the hands of the pass catcher. Pickett can open up this offense and take the necessary chances to keep the game close.

Buffalo is 18th in defensive penalties per game, and with CB Christian Benford and S Jordan Poyer questionable, we may see some of their backups struggle against the strong Pittsburgh receiving corps. If Pittsburgh can use some penalties or splash plays to get in the red zone, they can exploit one of the Buffalo defense’s weaknesses. Buffalo is ranked 24th in red zone defense, while Pittsburgh is sixth in red zone offense. The Steelers caught the Bills by surprise in Week 1 last year and they could very well do the same this weekend.

Why The Bills Can Cover The Spread

Buffalo’s offense may just be too much to handle for Pittsburgh. The Bills are the second-ranked team in pressure allowed this season, while Pittsburgh has struggled to get to the quarterback without T.J. Watt, ranking just 25th in pressure rate. When Zach Wilson got time last week he led two long touchdown drives against Pittsburgh, and Josh Allen will certainly pick the Steelers apart if he’s given time.

Then you add in the Buffalo defense. Even with potential injuries, this unit has been stellar this season. They aren’t as strong against the run but Pittsburgh has also struggled on the ground in 2022, ranking 23rd in rushing yards per game. If the Bills can jump out to a lead and force Kenny Pickett to throw the ball, they can lean on their pass defense which ranks first in pass defense DVOA, and make it a long day for the rookie quarterback.

Reasons To Bet The Over

The Bills average 28.5 points per game and can get back to scoring over 30 this week against a Steelers defense that has allowed over 250 passing yards per game. Zach Wilson escaped several sacks last week, but Josh Allen has greater mobility and can turn near sacks into huge runs or big plays down the field. With both S Minkah Fitzpatrick and DT Cam Heyward questionable, Allen and the Bills can really move the ball against this defense that is already down T.J. Watt. If Kenny Pickett can provide even a small bump in production over Mitch Trubisky, the Bills should be able to carry the majority of the load to hit the over.

Reasons To Bet The Under

For as much potential as the Bills’ offense holds they have been held under 24 points the last two weeks. A lengthy injury list including names like Dawson Knox, Isaiah McKenzie, and Jamison Crowder can further complicate things for this offense.

Defensively, Buffalo has held every team to 21 points or fewer this year, and the under is 3-1 in Bills games this season. The under is 2-2 for Pittsburgh, and in a tough road environment against one of the league’s top defenses, the deck is stacked against Kenny Pickett, who may struggle given the circumstances.


Josh Allen rushing vs the Steelers defense: Pittsburgh blitzes at the 12th highest rate in the league, yet is just 25th in pressure rate. If they blitz Allen and don’t get home, look for him to step up in the pocket and use his legs to pick up yards. He ran for 44 yards against Pittsburgh last season, but with no T.J. Watt and potentially other stars like Cam Heyward, Allen may have more green grass ahead of him this year. The Bills QB has also rushed for over 45 yards in three games this season.

  • Josh Allen rushing yards prop: O/U / ()

Gabe Davis vs Steelers cornerbacks: The Steelers are hurting at cornerback right now and the Jets took full advantage of it last weekend, picking on backup Arthur Maulet in coverage down the stretch. Akhello Witherspoon was joined by fellow corners Cam Sutton and Levi Wallace on the injury list to go along with both of Pittsburgh’s starting safeties. Stefon Diggs will get his share of targets, but on the other side, Pittsburgh might not be able to throw much at Gabe Davis, setting him up for a potentially strong day.

  • Gabe Davis receiving yards prop: O/U / ()

Najee Harris vs Bills front seven: It’s been a slow start to the year for Najee Harris, but the Bills provide an opportunity for the second-year back to get his first 100-yard game of the season. Buffalo is ranked just 16th by PFF in rush defense, and with key players like Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver, and Jordan Phillips all questionable, Harris and the Steelers offensive line may be able to take advantage.

  • Najee Harris rushing yards prop: O/U / ()


On paper, betting on Steelers Bills odds this weekend seems to favor Buffalo. They are strong on both sides of the ball and though they’ve struggled a bit the past two weeks, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers putting up that strong of a fight defensively given their injuries and recent play. It comes down to how much you believe in Kenny Pickett. He needs to play at a high level to keep Pittsburgh in this one, and that’s a tall task given it’s his first start against the Super Bowl favorites in such a hostile environment.

About 60% of the handle is on the Steelers at +14, but that’s likely due to the spread being such a high number, one that we don’t often see in the NFL. Buffalo is such a large favorite for a reason though, and a lot will have to go Pittsburgh’s way to keep things close. Best of luck betting on Steelers Bills odds and props this weekend.

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