NFL Week 5 Game Preview: Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

Written By Derek Wagner on October 7, 2022
lions patriots odds

The Detroit Lions (1-3) visit the New England Patriots (1-3) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 9. The Patriots are spread favorites and on the moneyline. Lions Patriots odds feature a point total set at .

In this article we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, weather, and the best available odds. Click on Lions Patriots odds anywhere in this post to bet now.

LIONS AT PATRIOTS ODDS: SPREAD, MONEYLINE, OVER/UNDER

When using the odds table above, click the dropdown menu and select the type of bet you wish to make. 

Betting on the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Patriots would need at least a four-point win if you bet on New England to cover the point spread (-3). A spread bet on the Lions would win if Detroit wins the game outright or loses by two points or fewer.

Betting the moneyline is simply betting on which particular team will win a game.

The total is the number of combined points the two teams will score. Bettors can choose to bet the over or under on how many total points will be scored in the game.

LIONS AT PATRIOTS PLAYER PROPS

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. 

LIONS AT PATRIOTS BETTING NEWS & ANGLES

As of Wednesday, the Lions Patriots odds have shifted to Patriots -3 favorites at all Sportsbooks. The look ahead line for this game was Patriots -1 but this has been on the move since Sunday. Additional updates can be found below.

LIONS VS. PATRIOTS WEATHER REPORT

The forecast shows that the conditions shouldn’t have an impact, as the temperature should settle in at 60 degrees by kickoff — with low wind speeds. Be wary of allowing the potential weather to impact your handicap of games unless there are extreme conditions expected.

Patriots Vs. Lions Injury Report

New England Injuries

Player Pos. Injury Status
Brian Hoyer QB Head Questionable
Lawrence Guy FB Shoulder Questionable
Jalen Mills CB Hamstring Questionable
Jonnu Smith TE Ankle Questionable
Jakobi Meyers WR Knee Questionable
Joshuah Bledsoe FB Groin Questionable
Mac Jones QB Ankle Questionable

Detroit Injuries

Player Pos. Injury Status
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Ankle Questionable
John Cominsky FB Wrist Questionable
Austin Seibert K Right groin Questionable
Quintez Cephus WR Foot Questionable
D’Andre Swift RB Ankle Questionable
Jonah Jackson OG Finger Questionable
D.J. Chark WR Ankle Questionable

Lions offense vs Patriots defense

Lions OStats (Rank)Patriots D
35.0 (1)Points/Game24.5 (22)
436.8 (1)Yards/Game346.8 (19)
0.520 (1)Points/Play0.397 (23)
6.5 (1)Yards/Play5.6 (18)
37.74% (19)3D Conversion %46.30 (28)
66.67% (6)4D Conversion %100% (29)
88.24% (2)RZ Scoring % (TD)69.23% (22)
4.5 (1)TDs/Game2.8 (18)

Patriots offense vs Lions defense

Patriots OStats (Rank)Lions D
18.5 (23)Points/Gm35.3 (32)
341.3 (18)Yards/Game444.8 (32)
0.307 (21)Points/Play0.515 (32)
5.7 (11)Yards/Play6.5 (31)
39.13% (15)3D Conversion %52.83% (32)
33.33% (25)4D Conversion %57.14 (18)
54.55 (21)RZ Scoring % (TD)86.67% (32)
2.3 (14)TDs/Game4.8 (32)

LIONS VS PATRIOTS BETTING INSIGHTS

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots were able to gash the Packers on the ground last week. They finished third in rushing EPA in Week 4. If Bill Belichick does one thing well, it is attack a team’s weakness. The Lions themselves are also terrible against the run, yielding the highest rushing EPA in the NFL to opposing teams.

Look for Belichick to keep the ball on the ground Sunday and sustain long drives to keep the Lions offense off the field. If the Patriots are able to succeed in this regard, they could limit Detroit’s offensive possessions and find in position to cover.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Patriots defense has yielded the fourth-highest rushing EPA through four weeks. The Packers found great success in the run game in Week 4, and the Lions should not have any issue finding success on the ground either. Detroit has the second-highest rushing EPA on the season after a fantastic Week 4 on the ground against Seattle that saw Jamaal Williams go for 108 yards on 19 carries. If the Lions can keep the ball on ground and limit Jared Goff’s mistakes, they could find success in Foxborough.

Although it is never advisable to bet a team based on a trend, it is worth noting that the Lions have covered the spread every game they have been underdogs this season. Another trend worth noting is that the Lions have scored a touchdown in every quarter except for one this season. To say they have an explosive offense might not be doing them justice.

Reasons to bet the over

The Lions have the highest scoring offense in the league and have yielded the most points per game defensively through four weeks. Even with Bailey Zappe at quarterback against the Packers, the Patriots were able to put up 24 points with the rookie quarterback from Western Kentucky. Belichick stuck with the ground game and attacked the weakness of the Green Bay Packers. If he is able to stick to that plan and attack the Lions weakness, we could see the Patriots pop off big chunk plays.

The Patriots defense has been average through four weeks of play and face a tough challenge ahead in the Lions. The Lions offense is operating at the second-highest tempo in neutral situations (via Football Outsiders), and they currently lead the NFL in yards per play with 6.5. The Lions are coming off a robust 7.9 yards per play in their Week 4 game against the Seahawks.

Regression could be on its way for the Lions offense, but even if it does come, their defense has been horrendous. Through four weeks the Lions defense has allowed the highest EPA per play in the NFL, and have yielded the second-most yards per play in the NFL with 6.5.

Reasons to bet the under

The Patriots will look to slow down the Lions offense by running the football as much as possible and keeping the Lions offense off the field. In Week 4 the Patriots ran the ball 33 times for 167 yards. If Mac Jones is unable to go, we can expect a similar game approach from Belichick and the Patriots. The Patriots offense is currently operating as the ninth-slowest tempo in neutral situations (via Football Outsiders).

Although it was Week 1, the Patriots were able to limit the Dolphins offense to only 5.2 yards per play and 20 points. The Dolphins for comparison are top 10 in points per game and rank second in yards per play with 6.4. The Patriots have slowed down a high powered offense once before and are more than capable of doing it again.

LIONS AT PATRIOTS MATCHUPS TO WATCH FOR

Patriots WRs Vs. Lions CBs

The Lions corners have been torched so far this year, although they have faced a difficult slate of offenses through four weeks. This will probably be the easiest task they have faced so far this season in the Patriots receivers. That being said, if the Patriots find success on the ground, they can force the Lions into man coverage and target this weak Lions secondary. The 2020 third overall pick Jeffrey Okudah has been a major disappointment for this Lions team. Through four games he has been targeted 23 times and allowed 17 receptions for 230 yards.

Patriots Vs. Lions Pass Rush

This is strength against weakness here. The Lions have brought the most blitzes in the NFL this season (64) and are middle of the pack when it comes to pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks. They are not getting home and are paying the price for it. Conversely, the Patriots have allowed the lowest amount of pressures in the NFL this season on their quarterbacks with only 21.

With the Patriots’ QB uncertainty and key Lions’ offensive weapons questionable earlier in the week, prop markets have been slow to come out. Use the Prop Finder Tool above to search the latest odds.

FINAL THOUGHTS

If the Lions get ahead early in this game, I may look to live bet this game. I’m expecting a Patriots win at home, but I was unable to grab anything under a field goal on Sunday evening. Live betting is an extremely valuable tool that not enough bettors take advantage of. If the number appears, I will take Patriots -2.5 or better live on Sunday. Best of luck betting Lions Patriots odds.

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