Eli’s NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Steelers & Rams To Cover The Spread?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Week 5 Best Bets

As the odds for NFL Week 5 near kick-off, I’ll assess price discovery and handicap point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals while sifting through the best NFL promos. The 2-2 Cowboys at the 3-1 Steelers matchup stands out compared to my betting model and projections. Below is my analysis of my best bets for NFL Week 5. I’ll add more to this article when they are in my account.

Click any of the odds below to place a bet. These sportsbook prices are the best available in your state.

potential NFL Week 5 Best Bets: giants +7 (to lose by six or less, or win)

Some readers are likely unfamiliar with the aforementioned term, price discovery. This activity starts when bets are made on the opening spread or total. Early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks may follow the same script as operators considered “market makers.” They shifted their pricing because a competitor repositioned its own. Liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to reshape the odds at other sportsbooks.

The current spread hasn’t changed much from the look-ahead line after the Seahawks failed to cover as 4.5-point underdogs in Detroit. Per the table above, the best available spread on the Giants is New York Giants +7 (-112) on BetRivers.

Monitor The Injury Report

Not only is this game a terrible spot for Seattle after its back-and-forth affair with the Lions on Monday evening, but it’s also sandwiched between a massive Thursday night matchup versus the division-rival 49ers. New York (hopefully) benefited from extra prep time following the loss to Dallas on TNF in Week 4.

I’m waiting to wager on the underdog until we have more insight into how the Seahawks handle their defensive injuries. Boye Mafe, Byron Murphy II, and Leonard Williams missed Monday’s defeat, and edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu hasn’t suited up this season.

Over the first three weeks, Mike Macdonald’s unit was tied for a league-high six fumbles forced while holding opponents to a 30% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone. The Seahawks were soaked with defensive regression in Detroit. They could receive another dose if their key pieces rest up for the 49ers.

Conversely, there’s speculation that Giants wideout Malik Nabers will clear concussion protocol by Saturday’s deadline. Even though Jayden Daniels is in the driver’s seat of the odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year because of his duel-threat prowess, Nabers is still a viable candidate.

If Nabers is in the lineup, there’s a more likely chance that the oft-maligned Daniel Jones will thwart the Seahawks’ overrated pass coverage. Remember that before Jared Goff torched their secondary on MNF, they took advantage of playing Bo Nix (in his debut), Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson.

Team injuries

Last Updated on 10.05.2024
Player Pos Position Injury Status Snaps/g Snaps Per Game Comment
New York Giants
There Aren’t Any Injured Players for This Team Currently
Seattle Seahawks
There Aren’t Any Injured Players for This Team Currently

Final Thoughts: NFL Week 5 Best Bets

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Update: Given that Nabers has been ruled out and the Seahawks’ injury report appears much cleaner at the end of the week, I’m passing on this bet. Listen to Beat The Closing Number on Apple or Spotify for more reasoning.

NFL Week 5 Best Bets: steelers Moneyline (to win outright)

A Winning Formula

Despite my reluctance to buy into either team in the long run, I’m willing to wager on Pittsburgh in a favorable home spot.

Unlike the Seahawks vs. Giants, this look-ahead line favored Dallas by roughly a point. However, the market has adjusted as the Cowboys’ top edge rushers, Micah Parsons (ankle) and DeMarcus Lawrence (injured reserve), will be spectators.

With Justin Fields continuing to start under center, the Steelers’ rushing attack should excel against a group already yielding the second-most EPA per carry across the NFL. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has dealt with significant injuries lately, but it may have right guard Isaac Seumalo on the field for the first time in 2024.

On the flip side, the Cowboys showcase one of the league’s worst backfields. It puts more onus on Dak Prescott and a wide receiver core lacking an ounce of explosiveness beyond Ceedee Lamb. Prescott’s struggles shouldn’t go unnoticed, ranking No. 22 in the EPA+CPOE composite among qualified quarterbacks.

The Steelers’ defense is designed to stop the run and force opponents into strenuous passing situations. It ranks above the league average in EPA per dropback and success rate. Pittsburgh’s knack for applying pressure is also pivotal in that regard, led by stud pass-rusher T.J. Watt, who is among the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year.

Final Thoughts: NFL Week 5 Best Bets

For bettors who prefer to lay the points for SNF odds, the best number on the board is Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-113) on BetRivers as of this publishing.

Bonus NFL week 5 best bets: rams +3.5 (to lose by three or less, or win)

Can’t Buy Me Love?

What’s old is new again. The Packers’ defense has accumulated the third-worst run-stop win rate — a death sentence against the Rams’ offensive line. Surprisingly, this unit has produced a bevy of holes for scatback Kyren Williams despite suffering its fair share of injuries, including free-agent signee Jonah Jackson.

Matthew Stafford and Co. are also due for some red-zone regression versus an exploitable defense — unlike what they faced in Chicago. Los Angeles has generated seven touchdowns on 17 drives inside the 20-yard line (41.2%), which ranks No. 28 in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Jordan Love compiled the third-worst EPA per dropback under pressure in Week 4. The Rams’ secondary certainly has holes for Love to exploit, but their top-10 blitz rate (20.7%) could pose a similar issue to how the Vikings schemed for him in his return from an MCL sprain.

The Packers are overvalued in the betting market compared to my power ratings. Couple that with their extensive injury report, including wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and I will take my chances in a plus matchup for the Rams.

Photo by Associated Press/Gene J. Puskar

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