NFL Week 5 Best Bets, Picks, & Odds: Favorites, Underdogs, and Value Spots
Written By Blaise Bourgeois | Last Updated at October 5, 2025
The second quarter of the NFL season has arrived, and it's time to share our NFL Week 5 best bets. Including the Thursday Night Football matchup, which saw the 49ers upset the Rams, we've seen a total of 65 games played so far this season. Bettors and oddsmakers have a lot of data and storylines to lean on as teams go into this critical week of the season.
In spite of that knowledge, lines have been tightening up across the board, making finding value from NFL Week 5 odds a real challenge. Though we've seen our fair share of surprise hot starts and long-term injuries to franchise players, there's still plenty of value edges to uncover before the season fully settles in.
Without further ado, let's dive deep into our NFL Week 5 picks.
Houston Texans (-1.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-115)
After opening as 6.5-point favorites, the Baltimore Ravens now find themselves as 1.5-point underdogs on FanDuel. The swing comes after Lamar Jackson was ruled out with a hamstring injury that could cost him 2-3 weeks.
Naturally, with Ravens backup quarterback Cooper Rush filling in (yes, the former Dallas Cowboys backup), this game features the largest movement this week, as far as Week 5 NFL spread picks go. Even if Lamar was at the helm, this game would have had upset alert written all over it.
The Texans are somehow 1-3 despite only having allowed 12.8 points per game - by far the best mark in the league. Conversely, the Ravens have allowed more points than any other team in football, having given up a league-worst 33.3 points per game. Nnamdi Madubuike is out for the season, and they may be without Kyle Hamilton, Roquan Smith, and/or Marlon Humphrey. This is a stunning reversal for a defense long considered one of the best in the league.
This game could be a total blowout. On one side of the ball, you have the league's best defense going up against a backup quarterback in a new system. On the other side, the league's worst defense goes up against a Texans offense who are gaining confidence and may have struck gold with fourth-round rookie running back Woody Marks. The USC product had 119 all-purpose yards and a touchdown last week, adding four catches for 50 yards out of the backfield.
After coming off a shutout, expect the fierce Houston defense to control the game and cover with ease.
Carolina Panthers ML vs. Miami Dolphins (+100)
Of all the Week 5 NFL moneyline picks, this may be the biggest slam dunk of all.
The Panthers are miles better at home than on the road, posting a somewhat respectable 11-16 mark at Bank of America Stadium since 2022, compared to a dismal 4-24 road record away from home.
While the Panthers come into Sunday's clash on the heels of a 42-13 battering in New England, they've done a better job holding onto the football, reducing their turnovers allowed in every game so far this season.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have not looked good at all this season and come in off a short week, with superstar Tyreek Hill being lost for the season with a knee injury that could see his time in Miami (finally) come to a close.
It looks to be a great rebound spot for Carolina, who have a winnable stretch of games on the horizon against Dallas and the Jets. Miami, meanwhile, appears to have already given up on 2024. Carolina's +100 ML value is just too good to pass up.
New York Giants ML @ New Orleans Saints (+106)
In another matchup between two teams that probably won't sniff the playoffs this season, I fully expect the upstart New York Giants to pull through in their game with the winless Saints.
Sure, Malik Nabers is now gone for the season after becoming the latest victim of the MetLife Stadium turf. That's a huge deal. But there's still a lot for Giants fans to get excited about, having come off a fantastic upset of the Chargers in Jaxson Dart's first start, while rookie RB Cam Skattebo has looked extremely impressive.
It's also time for their talented group of receivers to shine in Nabers' absence. Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Jalin Hyatt all have something to prove and may find themselves a little more open with a mobile quarterback behind center.
Bet $1, Double your Winnings on your Next 20 Wagers. Up to $25 Max Bet Per Boost The Saints, meanwhile, are going to be a contender for the number one overall pick. Though Spencer Rattler has put in a number of respectable starts, it's simply not enough, only achieving 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Only Cam Ward and Joe Flacco have done worse and now they find themselves 0-4. They're losing by an average of 14 points per game, Alvin Kamara trade rumors are hot, and it's probably only going to get worse.
If the Giants can improve on their league-worst 80 penalty yards per game, they have every opportunity to send the Saints to 0-5. At +106, this price is too good to pass up.
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