NFL Week 4 Teaser Legs: Which Short Underdogs Will Keep Games Close?

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on September 29, 2022
NFL Week 4 teasers

Teaser bets remain a popular option with many NFL bettors. But, you must use caution when selecting which teams you’ll tease, as you can’t win long term without a sound strategy. At TheLines, we’ll go over each week’s NFL slate to see which teams fit best in teasers. Today, we look at options for NFL Week 4 teasers.

Week 3 was a banner one for the strongest teaser plays. They went 4-0, although the rub is that three of them did not need the purchased points with the short home underdogs all winning outright. In any case, the borderline spots went 1-1, continuing the theme so far this year that we should stay picky.

Be sure to go over our primer on teaser bets hereIt’s imperative that you understand what to look for, from the numbers to the sportsbook juice being paid. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now.

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The Best NFL Week 4 Teasers

Yet again, underdogs dominate the board for NFL Week 4 teasers. We just haven’t seen many big favorites in 2022 thus far.

Cardinals (+1.5) At Panthers

How in the world are the Panthers running away from the Cardinals barring an incredible defensive performance for a near-shutout?

The Panthers have a terrible offense and Baker Mayfield isn’t doing anything to move the ball. They got shut down by the Saints last week and basically rode situational football and one big second-half play to a win. The defense played fine, but Mayfield ranks 32nd of 32 qualified QBs in completion percentage over expectation. He hasn’t found a rhythm with a solid receiving group.

Kyler Murray hasn’t exactly played well, but he certainly looks better than Mayfield. It’s hard to envision the Panthers winning by double digits, especially when Murray has already shown he can lead some fourth-quarter rallies to at least get within a teaser number.

Rams (+1.5) At 49ers

Now, we should start by noting the Rams have been a bit erratic on offense. Matt Stafford has not looked sharp early, with a league-leading five INTs (tied with two others) and the third-worst INT% in the league. Cam Akers’ fumbling problems reared their head again last week.

So, some variance definitely exists here against a 49ers defense that completely shut down everyone it has faced so far.

At the same time, this is still a divisional underdog in a game with a total of .

Jalen Ramsey should match up well here against Deebo Samuel’s short stuff, which should limit a lot of what the 49ers do with their stud multi-purpose player. While Ramsey’s coverage skills looked off in the opener, his tackling has mostly been on point so far, a key skill when Samuel gets so much mileage out of his power.

The 49ers will also be down probably their best player in LT Trent Williams unless he makes a miracle recovery from an ankle sprain.

Broncos (+2.5) At Raiders

Another divisional underdog, and while the total doesn’t sit quite as low, it still lands well within teaser range.

Now, we should note the Broncos have gotten off to a pretty concerning start on offense. Russell Wilson seems way out of synch on his shorter stuff, repeatedly missing easy first downs against the 49ers when he was under pressure. Overall, between Wilson’s poor play and iffy coaching, the Broncos have left a ton of points on the field.

If Wilson plays better, the Broncos should stay within striking distance. The Raiders defense has not provided much resistance so far, ranking 26th in EPA/play allowed. If he doesn’t play better, that would be pretty damning.

Certainly, Denver has the secondary to slow down Davante Adams. That’s key since Hunter Renfrow remains iffy with a concussion and Darren Waller has played poorly so far. Watch for the Denver pass rush — rated third thus far by PFF — to dominate a weak Raiders offensive line.

Other Potential NFL Week 4 Teasers

Falcons (+1.5) Vs. Browns

Unlike the others on this list, this one sits right on the border in terms of the total. Once you get past 48, things start to get dicier on teasers. That this is even close counts as a major surprise, as this number would have closed considerably lower in a Week 1 matchup.

But, these teams have been addicted to shootouts so far, a shocking development in the Browns‘ case. The only time these teams haven’t hit the 50-point mark was the Browns’ recent win over the Steelers that landed 46.

While we like playing home underdogs, rush defense looks like a major concern here. While many teams would expect to kill the clock late if they’re up a couple of scores, and eventually punt the ball back to the Falcons, the Browns might be able to score while doing so. Things could get out of hand pounding Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt against the bottom-rated run defense in the league by EPA/play.

At the same time, superstar Browns EDGE Myles Garrett looks highly questionable after getting in a car accident. With Jadeveon Clowney also logging an early DNP, the Falcons offense should have an easier time than expected.

Buccaneers (+1) Vs. Chiefs

Another week, another poor performance from the Buccaneers offense. This time, Tom Brady had an absolute skeleton crew to work with at wide receiver, and it showed as he tallied just 5.6 yards per dropback. Even that number was boosted by a late drive against a prevent defense.

The Chiefs have been very solid on defense thus far, but the difficulty of this matchup could ramp up quite a bit if Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are able to go. Neither has appeared on the field since Week 1, so they’ve had some time to heal up. But, the team seems likely to remain cautious with Godwin in particular after he proved unable to hold up in a fairly early return from an ACL tear.

Uncertainty around the Bucs’ offense, along with the always present potential for an explosive game by the Chiefs offense, prevents this from landing in the strong plays. The latter unit didn’t have the best day in Week 3, but special teams miscues and lackluster coaching (not to mention a TD drop by Travis Kelce) caused them to leave a ton of points on the board. That seems fairly easy to clean up, and Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 ranking in EPA+CPOE composite says he remains quite dangerous.

Finally, with most of the market at +1 at the time of writing, you aren’t getting the hook that maximizes teaser value.

Saints (+2.5) Vs. Vikings

This game also features too much injury murkiness to land it among the strong plays. Saints starting QB Jameis Winston has yet to practice, leaving Andy Dalton running with the starters so far. Who knows what weapons will be available as well, with WRs Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry battling short-term ailments.

Add in the built-in variance and uncertainty of dealing with a London game, and you have a spot where buying points doesn’t look all that attractive despite a pretty low total.

Furthermore, any bad injury news as Sunday draws closer would surely push this line to a consensus +3, and that’s the number to look for if you want to back the Saints.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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