NFL Week 4 Odds: Tennessee Titans At Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

Written By Brett Gibbons on September 30, 2022 - Last Updated on October 1, 2022
Titans Colts Odds

The Tennessee Titans (1-2) visit the Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1) in an AFC South divisional matchup on Sunday, Oct. 2. Kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. EST from Lucas Oil Stadium and will be broadcast on FOX. The Colts are home favorites and the underdog Titans are on the moneyline. Titans Colts odds feature a point total currently set at .

In this article we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Titans Colts Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

To place a bet, click on the odds in the table below or on any other odds in this post. In the table, you can toggle between spread, moneyline, or point total in the dropdown menu.

Check out the full NFL Week 4 odds slate here.

Titans At Colts Player Props

Search for a player in our NFL Player Props Search tool below by typing their name into the search bar. To place a bet, click on the odds in the table.

Titans At Colts Betting News & Angles

Titans Offense Vs. Colts Defense

Titans OStats (Rank)Colts D
17.0 (22nd)Points/Gm20.3 (15th)
0.304 (17th)Points/Play0.313 (15th)
302.3 (25th)Yards/Gm315.0 (12th)
208.3 (23rd)Pass Yards/Gm238.0 (17th)
94.0 (20th)Rush Yards/Gm77.0 (3rd)
5.4 (16th)Yards/Play4.8 (9th)
7.4 (7th)Yards/Pass6.9 (21st)
3.5 (27th)Yards/Rush2.6 (1st)
36.4% (18th)3rd Down %35.0% (13th)
85.7% (2nd)Red Zone TD %71.4% (26th)
2.0 (25th)Turnovers1.0 (19th)
1.3 (t-4th)Sacks1.3 (29th)

Colts Offense Vs. Titans Defense

Colts OStats (Rank)Titans D
13.3 (31st)Points/Gm28.0 (29th)
0.193 (31st)Points/Play0.447 (30th)
331.3 (21st)Yards/Gm401.3 (26th)
227.0 (20th)Pass Yards/Gm256.3 (24th)
104.3 (17th)Rush Yards/Gm145.0 (29th)
4.8 (25th)Yards/Play6.4 (30th)
5.8 (24th)Yards/Pass7.3 (24th)
4.0 (22nd)Yards/Rush5.8 (32nd)
35.0% (22nd)3rd Down %22.9% (3rd)
40.0% (28th)Red Zone TD %50.0% (8th)
2.0 (25th)Turnovers1.0 (19th)
4.0 (29th)Sacks2.3 (t-12th)

Titans At Colts Betting Insights

Why The Titans Can Cover The Spread

There’s a lot of similarities between these two teams– namely inefficient offenses, underdelivering rushing attacks, injuries, and offensive line struggles. Both teams have had the bottom fall out from underneath them (the Titans lost 41-7 to the Bills, the Colts lost 24-0 to the Jaguars). So, spotting the Titans more than a field goal on the road seems like a gift in Titans Colts odds.

The spread feels inflated in reaction to the Colts’ Week 3 win at home against the Chiefs. Playing the numbers game, getting the Titans with the hook (+3.5) gives bettors a 20% push rate bonus.

Last year, Derrick Henry left the Titans’ second game against the Colts with his season-ending foot injury. In each of the previous four matchups against the Colts, Henry broke the 100-yard mark. Since the start of 2018, the Titans are 19-3 outright when Henry breaches 100 yards; of course, higher rush rates and yards correlate with a higher win mark since teams tend to lean into the run when ahead. But if Henry continues his dominance against Indianapolis, the Titans are likely to win, and that means covering their field-goal spread.

Why The Colts Can Cover The Spread

They’re the home team and this spread suggests these teams are even on a neutral field (in some markets, they favor the Colts by a half-point on a neutral field). So, if the market is telling you these teams are about the same, leaning toward the home team is a good bet. Since 2019, the Colts are 16-10 outright at home, tied for the eighth-best mark in the NFL.

Jonathan Taylor also has an opportunity against a defense that’s near the bottom against the run. Conversely, the Colts are tops in the NFL in yards per rush allowed, suggesting Indy’s defensive front has the advantage at the line of scrimmage.

Reasons To Bet The Over

At just points, the reason to lean the over is that this total is one of the lower marks on the week. However, there’s a good reason it’s low– both teams have serious offensive struggles and competent defenses. It’s a dicy proposition to bet that this is the week the Colts’ offense gets it together.

The best advice is to sit back and wait until Indianapolis gives proof of concept first.

Reasons To Bet The Under

With two prolific backs and opportunity in the run game, both teams are likely going to crutch on the ground. This leads to a negative game script in terms of high-scoring affairs and a tendency to score few points. Betting against the Colts’ offense under Matt Ryan this season has been profitable– they’re scoring the second-fewest points per game in the NFL.

On the other side, the Titans’ offense hasn’t proved to be capable of moving the ball downfield quickly. Their receiving corps is one of the least-experienced and underwhelming in the NFL, led by rookie Treylon Burks. And at just 3.5 yards per carry for Henry, this offense has been stagnant most of the season. Two stagnant offenses is a recipe for the under.

Titans At Colts Props: Matchups To Watch For

Derrick Henry Vs. Colts Defense: I hate to be so broad, but Henry has dominated every phase of the Colts’ defense in his career. As mentioned, he’s eclipsed 100 yards in four of their last games against the Colts (with the exception of Week 8, where he played on a broken foot). Through three weeks, the Colts top the NFL in yards per rush allowed, meaning it’s not a foregone conclusion that Henry hits 100 yards.

  • Best Henry rushing prop: O/U / ()

Michael Pittman Vs. Kristian Fulton: Fulton has been the lead corner for the Titans this season, but the secondary for Tennessee has been wildly inconsistent. Last week, Fulton and the Titans’ secondary held Davante Adams to just five receptions and 36 yards on 10 targets, but allowed Mack Hollins to gash them for 158 yards. The week before, Stefon Diggs had 12 receptions for 148 yards and three TDs. Pittman has 121 and 72 receiving yards in his two games this season and has an opportunity to have another big game here.

  • Best Pittman receiving prop: O/U / ()

Colts’ Pass Rush Vs. Titans’ Tackles: The Titans are without their top tackle Taylor Lewan, who was lost for the season with an injury. In his place is Dennis Daily and the other tackle is manned by rookie Nicholas Petit-Frere. While the unit is pretty weak, the Colts haven’t threatened with their pass rush yet this season. Despite dialing up a league-average 17.9% blitz rate, the Colts’ pressure rate is bottom-five in the NFL (12.5%).

Final Thoughts

A common fallacy in betting is making your bet placed on potential or ceiling. Instead, I prefer to look at median performance– take away the best and worst game and how do the teams fare? It helps with setting expectation and evaluating teams fairly. This season, the Titans have played the better median football.

The Titans have been excellent in two crucial situations: Defending on third down and converting touchdowns in the Red Zone. Through three weeks, the Titans are third in the NFL in opposing third down conversion rate (22.9%!) and second in Red Zone touchdown rate (85.7%). This is a strong indicator for offensive progression and winning football games.

I ranked the Titans above the Colts in our latest NFL Power Rankings. Spotting the more reliable team more than a field goal feels like opportunity. +3 seems fair as well. Best of luck betting Titans Colts odds.

Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

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