The Recency Report: NFL Week 3 Market Moves And Week 4 Lookahead Lines

Written By FairwayJay on September 24, 2020
NFL Week 4 Lookahead Lines

The Lines is here to provide you additional sports betting resources and information you can bet on. That includes advance lookahead lines for the following week’s NFL games along with some of the weekly market moves, storylines and betting situations to assist you in your pursuit of profit.

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NFL Week 3 market movement

With skyrocketing scoring in which 16 teams scored at least 30 points in Week 2, bettors are expecting even more points in some of the biggest games in Week 3.

The betting market moves also include totals, and there are five games with over/under totals of at least 49.5 points including primetime games with top quarterbacks. Green Bay at New Orleans on Sunday Night Football has seen the total rise to 52.5. The most anticipated Monday Night Football feature of Kansas City at Baltimore has also seen a slight uptick to 54.5 points. The biggest total move upward is Minnesota at Tennessee (49.5).

Some notable line moves since the Week 3 lines were released by FanDuel Sportsbook include:

  • Las Vegas at New England: The line has dropped and crossed over the key number of 6 with New England currently a 5-point favorite. The Raiders are 2-0 following their Monday Night Football upset win over the Saints. Las Vegas has rushed the ball at least 31 times in two wins and the Patriots allowed 154 rushing yards on 30 carries in last week’s 35-30 loss at Seattle. The situation and short week schedule is not favorable for Las Vegas as the Raiders travel East for the second time this season for an early Sunday kickoff.
  • San Francisco at New York Giants: This line has dipped slightly with the road favorite 49ers currently a 3.5-point favorite. More movement may be in store as the 49ers laundry list of injuries is piling up. Along with missing key offensive starters QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB’s Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman and potentially TE George Kittle, the 49ers are going to be fielding a defense that will be without five of their seven highest-graded defenders last season. That includes top pass-rusher Nick Bosa. Last week’s lookahead line was San Francisco -7. More than 65% of the bets and money wagered on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook is still on San Francisco as bettors struggle to wager on New York and a Giants offense that has failed to reach 300 yards in each of their first two games.
  • Cincinnati at Philadelphia: More Eagles injuries and another bad loss led to market impact as this line has dropped from Eagles -5.5 to Philadelphia currently being a 4.5-point favorite.
  • New York Jets at Indianapolis: The biggest move and adjustment from the Week 3 lookahead line (Colts -7) is on Indy, which is now up to an 11.5-point favorite. The sportsbooks can’t get enough action on the putrid New York Jets, who check in last in TheLines’ Week 3 power rankings.

ALSO READ: Best NFL Week 3 offers from legal US sportsbooks

Week 4 lookahead lines and matchups

For the second straight week, there are no division games. The Thursday night game could feature a pair of 0-3 teams if the New York Jets and Denver Broncos lose as sizable underdogs in Week 3.

  • Arizona at Carolina: The Cardinals have a good shot to start 4-0 as Arizona is favored in Weeks 3 and 4. The Cardinals have been the biggest mover in Super Bowl futures odds. Arizona has seen their odds cut in half as they are now +2800. Prop bettors are taking note of QB Kyler Murray, whose MVP odds are down to +1300.
  • Cleveland at Dallas: A rare match-up between these interconference foes. The Cowboys offense is averaging 6.3 yards per play to rank top-5 in the league after leading the NFL last year at 6.5 yards per play. Both teams have the ability to run a balanced offense with running games among the league’s best. The Browns running game ranks No. 2 in the league averaging 176 rushing yards per game led by both Nick Chubb (184 rushing yards, 5.8 yard per rush) and Kareem Hunt (158/6.8). Both are top-10 in the league in rushing behind No. 3 Ezekiel Elliott (185/4.2) of the Cowboys.
  • Atlanta at Green Bay: Five teams are averaging at least 30 points per game through two weeks, led by the Packers 42.5 points per game (PPG). The Falcons are averaging 32 PPG and this contest may wind up having the the highest posted total of the season. Highly-skilled veteran passing quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are leading offenses averaging 505 and 443 yards per game, respectively. The Packers astounding 7.1 yards per play leads the league and both passing offenses rank top-5 in yards per game.

NFL Week 4 odds

MatchupLookahead lineCurrent line (Oct. 5)
Denver at New York JetsBroncos -2.5Jets -1
Arizona at CarolinaCardinals -5Cardinals -3
Baltimore at WashingtonRavens -13Ravens -14.5
Cleveland at DallasCowboys -5.5Cowboys -3.5
Indianapolis at ChicagoColts -2Colts -3.5
Jacksonville at CincinnatiBengals -3Bengals -1
LA Chargers at Tampa BayBuccaneers -5Buccaneers -7.5
Minnesota at HoustonTexans -3Texans -3.5
New Orleans at DetroitSaints -5.5Saints -3
Seattle at MiamiSeahawks -7Seahawks -4.5
New York Giants at LA RamsRams -10Rams -13.5
Buffalo at Las VegasBills -1.5Bills -3
Philadelphia at San Francisco49ers -3.549ers -8.5
New England at Kansas CityChiefs -7.5Chiefs -11
Atlanta at Green BayPackers -5.5Packers -5

How to use lookahead lines

We’ll be updating the NFL advance lines each week to allow you a sneak peak at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendencies for many bettors is to over-react to previous weeks’ scores and results. The lookahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential over-reaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion on certain teams. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations and stats that come to light as the season progresses.

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FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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