NFL Week 4 Implied Team Totals: Browns, Lions Gaining Market Respect

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on September 29, 2022
week 4 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 4 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 4 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sept. 28, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 4 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Bills28RavensAway-352
Eagles27JaguarsHome-6.546.5
Bengals26DolphinsHome-447
Lions26SeahawksHome-448
Browns26FalconsAway-149.5
Chargers25TexansAway-5.544
Ravens25BillsHome352
Packers25PatriotsHome-9.540.5
Raiders24BroncosHome-2.545.5
Falcons24BrownsHome149.5
Vikings23SaintsLondon-343
Chiefs23BuccaneersAway-145
Colts23TitansHome-342.5
Panthers23CardinalsHome-243
Cowboys23CommandersHome-3.542.5
Steelers23JetsHome-342
49ers22RamsHome-242
Dolphins22BengalsAway447
Broncos22RaidersAway2.545.5
Buccaneers22ChiefsHome145
Seahawks22LionsAway448
Giants22BearsHome-339.5
Cardinals21PanthersAway243
Rams2049ersAway242
Titans20ColtsAway342.5
Saints20VikingsLondon343
Commanders20CowboysAway3.542.5
Jaguars20EaglesAway6.546.5
Jets20SteelersAway342
Texans19ChargersHome5.544
Bears18GiantsAway339.5
Patriots16PackersAway9.540.5

Highest NFL Week 4 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Bills2827.5+100-120
Eagles2727.5+105-125
Bengals2626.5-110-110
Lions2626.5-120+100
Browns2625.5-110-110

Note: DK seems to be holding off posting derivates for Thursday Night Football until Tua Tagovailoa’s injury situation clears up.

Cleveland Browns

Expected to play a low-scoring defensive style to open the season while Jacoby Brissett plays QB, the Browns have instead instead played three straight fireworks shows averaging 52.3 points per game total. What’s more, none of the offenses they’ve faced were expected to be in even the top 20. They rank 25th in EPA/play allowed despite facing this murderer’s row of QBs: Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky and Baker Mayfield.

The running game has ripped off big chunks on offense, though. Cleveland has gotten 5 YPA on the ground, sixth-best in the league. And Brissett has built a rapport quickly with Amari Cooper, coming off two straight huge games with 101 yards apiece.

Atlanta ranks dead last in EPA/play allowed on the ground and third-worst in success rate. They have also gotten into their share of shootouts, involved in 50-plus point games each week.

This matchup should prove fruitful for both offenses but especially so the Browns.

Buffalo Bills

From a notable addition to market implied high scorers to a boring weekly entry. The Bills had a week to forget on offense against the Dolphins, piling up a ton of yards but needing a ton of plays to do so.

That’s the exception so far, however, as the team could have put up 50 the first couple of weeks if inclined to do so.

And the Ravens look like a pretty inviting target. Opposing passing games have feasted for 7.5 YPA through the air, third-worst in the NFL. It’s not simply a product of getting torched by the unique receiving combo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, either. The Patriots rolled up 8.6 YPA on dropbacks as well.

The Ravens have the horses at corner in Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters to clean this up. If they don’t the Bills will soar past the highest implied total of the week and cash over tickets.

Keep in mind that the Bills may be battling fatigue coming off a heat-soaked game where they ran 90 plays.

Lowest NFL Week 4 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Patriots1615.5-110-110
Bears1818.5-110-110
Texans1919.5-110-110

New England Patriots

Mac Jones sustained a high ankle sprain that seems almost certain to keep him sidelined for Week 4. That means Brian Hoyer will start for New England, barring a change of heart from Bill Belichick. Since fourth-round rookies generally don’t arrive ready to start NFL games, Bailey Zappe seems unlikely to factor in here.

Hoyer has had a great career, sticking for more than a decade after going undrafted. What we have seen from him lately has been rare — just two starts since 2018 — and middling by backup QB standards. Since 2017, his team has lost all eight of his starts while he has 9 TDs and 9 INTs to go with a below-average 6.8% sack rate.

The Packers have been a bit vulnerable to the run so far. They allowed chunk yardage to the Bears frequently while playing a lot of light boxes. New England’s run blocking has been quite good, ranking just inside the top 10 by PFF’s grades. They’ll need that to continue to get past this number, although such a strategy would serve to shorten the game.

Chicago Bears

Speaking of the Bears, they continued their strategy of basically never calling passing plays. It worked out for them as they squeaked out another win, but not because of anything the offense really did. They did pound the rock successfully again as Khalil Herbert went for 157 and 2 TDs on 20 carries, but the passing game once again fell flat.

The Giants present an interesting matchup here because they’ve been bad against the run so far, ranking 29th in EPA/play allowed. However, they profile as a team that should do well stopping the run. The status of Leonard Williams bears watching. He hasn’t played much this year and missed Week 3. When he can team up with Dexter Lawrence inside, the Giants should have a pretty stout run-stuffing duo.

If he’s out, the Bears have a better chance to get over this number. But even in such a case, it’s hard to see sustained offensive success in the future when a team simply can’t pass the ball at all.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Chiefs2322.5-115-105
Seahawks2221.5-115-105

Kansas City Chiefs

It’s a rare week indeed that doesn’t see the Chiefs in the opening section of this article. While they perhaps struggled a bit more than expected against the Colts in Week 3, they still moved the ball reasonably well.

Special teams and coaching miscues cost them repeatedly. They left points on the field via a missed field goal, missed extra point, botched fake field goal and a bizarre decision to run the clock out at the end of the first half despite being in favorable field position near midfield.

Patrick Mahomes remains atop the QB rankings in terms of EPA+CPOE composite. However, he faces a tough test this week in a Bucs defense that has kept them in games despite a poor offensive start by a short-handed unit. They top the DVOA rankings and have yet to allow more than 14 points.

Todd Bowles has historically favored a blitz-heavy scheme and the Bucs once again rank seventh in blitz rate. That hasn’t been a recipe for success against Mahomes, though.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks average the third-fewest plays per game in the NFL, dragging their games into the mud. However, Geno Smith has been…quite good? He ranks a shocking seventh in EPA+CPOE composite, just behind early season studs Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts.

Certainly, throwing to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett boosts these sorts of things. But they aren’t going anywhere this week, and the team has a dream offensive matchup against the Lions indoors.

Detroit has a poor pass rush but blitzes very frequently, fourth-most in the NFL. Smith’s biggest weakness has always been terrible pocket presence, but receivers should be breaking open quickly here. How he handles the blitz will likely determine whether Seattle piles up points in another shootout here.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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