NFL Week 4 Game Preview: New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on October 1, 2022
nfl week 5

The New England Patriots (1-2) head into Green Bay this week without Mac Jones to play the Packers (2-1). Without Jones, Brian Hoyer will be starting for New England. Green Bay is a spread favorite and moneyline favorites. Patriots Packers odds feature a total of 39.5 points.

Let’s dive into all the information you need to make an informed bet on this game, including offense vs. defense statistics, injury reports and matchups to watch for prop bets.

Patriots – Packers Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

The NFL Week 4 odds table effectively shows all the legal sportsbooks odds for each of the three main markets – spreads, totals, and Moneylines – so that bettors can know what they’re getting is the best price. Just use the dropdown menu to toggle between the type of bet you want, and then make sure you’re getting the best price when you bet.

If you’re looking at spreads, getting an extra half point on either side can make or break the difference, and getting the best side of a total points market can be crucial as well. When it comes to Moneyline betting, you always want to get the best number possible – all three things that the easy comparison points of the Odds Table allow.

Patriots vs. Packers Player Props

The props tool enables bettors to effectively track any player’s odds across sportsbooks, to make sure that bettors aren’t missing out on a better total, or a better value, on a player prop.

Whether it’s getting a total you want to bet an Over on 5 yards lower, or a line where you have to pay less juice, the Props tool enables bettors to make sure they’re not missing out.

Patriots vs. Packers Betting News & Angles

Patriots vs. Packers Injury Report

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS      
PlayerPositionInjuryWedThuFriGame Status
Lawrence GuyDEShoulderDNPDNPDNPOut
Mac JonesQBAnkleDNPDNPDNPOut
Joshuah BledsoeSAFGroinLPLPLPQuestionable
Yodny CajusteOTThumbLPDNPDNPOut
Kyle DuggerSKneeLPLPLPQuestionable
Davon GodchauxNTBacLPLPLPQuestionable
Raekwon McMillanMLBThumbLPLPLPQuestionable
Jakobi MeyersWRKneeLPLPLPOut
Jalen MillsCBHamstringLPLPLPQuestionable
Adrian PhillipsDBRibLPLPLPQuestionable
GREEN BAY PACKERS
PlayerPositionInjuryWedThuFriGame Status
Jaire AlexanderCBGroinLPDNPLPQuestionable
David BakhtiariOTKneeLPDNPLP(-)
AJ DillonRBKneeLPFPFP(-)
Jonathan GarvinLBHipLPFPLP(-)
Elgton JenkinsGKneeDNPLPLP(-)
Caleb JonesOTIllnessDNPDNPDNPOut
Allen LazardWRAnkleLPLPLP(-)
Marcedes LewisTEGroinLPDNPLP(-)
Christian WatsonWRHamstringLPFPFP(-)

Patriots Offense vs. Packers Defense

Patriots OStats (Rank)Packers D
16.7 (25)Points/Gm15 (6)
0.273 (24)Points/Play0.280 (10)
364.7 (10)Yards/Gm302.7 (6)
249 (11)Pass Yards/Gm189.3 (7)
115.7 (13)Rush Yards/Gm113.3 (18)
6.0 (8)Yards/Play5.6 (17)
8.1 (4)Yards/Pass6.7 (17)
4.3 (18)Yards/Rush4.9 (24)
42.86% (9)3rd Down %22.58% (1)
55.56% (17)Red Zone TD %50% (8)
8 (31)Turnovers3 (18)
5 (8)Sacks7 (12)

Packers Offense vs. Patriots defense

Packers OStats (Rank)Patriots D
16 (27)Points/Gm23.7 (22)
0.255 (27)Points/Play0.403 (24)
355.7 (12)Yards/Gm314.7 (11)
228.7 (19)Pass Yards/Gm200 (8)
127 (9)Rush Yards/Gm114.7 (19)
5.7 (11)Yards/Play5.4 (15)
7.6 (9)Yards/Pass6.3 (11)
4.7 (11)Yards/Rush5.1 (26)
42.42% (10)3rd Down %47.50% (27)
54.55% (18)Red Zone TD %66.67% (22)
5 (19)Turnovers4 (12)
8 (21)Sacks10 (5)

Patriots vs. Packers Betting Insights

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

Without Mac Jones, the Packers have gone from a -6 favourite to -9.5. If Brian Hoyer can be a reasonable facsimile, then the Pats could still put up enough points. Considering how bad the Packers Rush D is – 32nd in the league by DVOA – they could just rush their way to 20 points and a cover.

The Patriots D also held Miami to only 20 points in Week 1. That didn’t look that impressive at the time, but seeing what the Dolphins can do, that might suggest that New England can neuter the Packers offence.

Why The Packers can cover the spread

The last time Brian Hoyer started, he went 15/24 for 130 yards and an interception. He isn’t good anymore, and will probably be much worse than Mac Jones has been. Without any throwing threat, the Packers will be able to stack the box and stop the run.

On the other side, Aaron Rodgers stops that being an issue because the Patriots can’t load up and ignore passing risks. The Patriots are 28th in Rush Defence by DVOA, and Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon won’t have the stacked boxes that Green Bay can use defensively.

Reasons to bet the over

It’s a low total, which helps any effort at going over it, to start with. The fact that the Patriots and Packers do have such porous rush defences helps a lot too. If either team can get a big rush or two, and score quickly, it’ll help the total immensely.

The other possibility is Green Bay getting up to a big lead and then not turning the ball over. Green Bay’s offence looked efficient through two drives last week, before stalling out. If the bad luck doesn’t come, we could easily see Green Bay putting up most of this number themselves.

Reasons to bet the under

The clock is never going to stop in this game. Green Bay and New England both have preferences for rushing, and they will exploit the others’ weakness. Green Bay doesn’t want to make Rodgers throw more than he has to, and Hoyer throwing is a sign the Patriots can’t win.

The less plays in a game the likelier it is to go under, and this reeks of a low pace, low play total game. Green Bay won’t want to use too much of the playbook if it doesn’t have to. Throw in the fact that Rodgers won’t mind not taking the hits, this is going to be slow and boring.

Patriots vs. Packers Props: Matchups To Watch For

Aaron Jones Anytime TD:

Jones lost a Fumble in Week 3, but he’s been the team’s goalline back so far this season. With 2 TDs against the Bears, Jones has been the go-to in goal-to-go situations so far this season. Whether his fumble affects that could be key for Green Bay.

AJ Dillon Rushing Yards: O/U / ()

If the Packers are going to be able to run the ball, Dillon will be a key cog. With the two headed backfield, whether Dillon can make an impact early to stay on the field will be key.

Final Thoughts

The Packers losing this game would be the biggest upset of the season, by size of spread. With Hoyer at Quarterback, the line will flirt with -10, but it might not get back there.

The case for New England is compelling – slow, boring games tend to unders and underdogs. The Patriots should be able to run on the very bad Packers rush Defence, and Hoyer might only have to make the occasional throw.

The big question mark over all of this is how good Green Bay’s offence is – 9th by DVOA, but they’ve had very bad moments and good ones. The inconsistency with Green Bay, game to game and even drive to drive, makes them hard to predict.

At the end of the day, the Packers won’t want to give anything away offensively. They won’t want to break out any advanced playcalls or interesting set before they have to. New England doesn’t project as a close enough game to justify it.

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