NFL Week 4 Game Preview: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

Written By Eli Hershkovich on September 29, 2022 - Last Updated on September 30, 2022
Bengals Dolphins Odds

The Miami Dolphins visit the Cincinnati Bengals at 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 29. This primetime game to kick off NFL Week 4 odds showcases the Bengals as spread favorites and on the moneyline. The total is set at . Read more for a full analysis on Bengals – Dolphins odds.

In this article, we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on Thursday Night Football odds, including team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds. Click on Bengals – Dolphins odds anywhere in this post to bet now.

Browns vs. Steelers Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the odds table above, click the dropdown menu and select the type of bet you wish to make. 

Betting on the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Bengals would need at least a four-point win if you bet on Cincinnati to cover the point spread (-3.5). A spread bet on the Dolphins would win if Miami wins the game outright or loses by three points or fewer.

Betting the moneyline is simply betting on which particular team will win a game.

The total is the number of combined points the two teams will score. Bettors can choose to bet the over or under on how many total points will be scored in the game.

Bengals vs. Dolphins Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. 

Bengals vs. Dolphins Betting News

As of Thursday, the Dolphins have manufactured 56% of the spread handle and 55% of the tickets, respectively. This data comes from BetMGM Sportsbook, which has Miami priced at after initially opening at +2.5. Additional updates can be found below.

Bengals vs. Dolphins Weather Report

The forecast shows that the conditions shouldn’t have an impact, as the temperature should settle in at 57 degrees by kickoff — with low wind speeds. Be wary of allowing the potential weather to impact your handicap in general — unless it revolves around matchups impacted by Hurricane Ian.

Bengals vs. Dolphins Injury Report

 PositionInjuryMondayTuesdayWednesdayGame Status
La'el CollinsOTBackDNPDNPFPQuestionable
Germaine PrattLBKneeLPFPFPQuestionable
Terron ArmsteadOTToeDNPDNPDNPQuestionable
Cethan CarterTECethan CarterDNPDNPDNPOut
Xavien HowardCBGroin / GluteDNPLPLPQuestionable
Brandon JonesSChestDNPLPLPQuestionable
Hunter LongTEAnkleDNPDNPDNPOut
Tua TagovailoaQBBack, AnkleDNPLPLPQuestionable
Jaylen WaddleWRGroinDNPLPLPQuestionable
Raekwon DavisDTKneeLPLPLPQuestionable
Ced WilsonWRRibs, ToeLPLPLPQuestionable

Bengals’ Offense vs. Dolphins’ Defense

CIN OffenseStats (Ranked)MIA Defense
21.3 (10)Points/Game21.3 (16)
338.7 (20)Yards/Game413.7 (31)
0.282 (21)Points/Play0.323 (17)
4.5 (32)Yards/Play6.3 (27)
44.68% (8)3D Conversion %48.65% (29)
40.00% (23)4D Conversion %42.86% (10)
50.00% (21)RZ Scoring % (TD)62.50% (19)
2.0 (15)TDs/Game2.7 (19)

Dolphins’ Offense vs. Bengals’ Defense

MIA OffenseStats (Ranked)CIN Offense
27.7 (8)Points/Game18.3 (9)
355.3 (13)Yards/Game310.7 (8)
0.497 (2)Points/Play0.281 (11)
6.4 (3)Yards/Play4.8 (7)
48.48% (4)3D Conversion %32.56% (10)
100.00% (1)4D Conversion %25.00% (4)
77.78% (4)RZ Scoring % (TD)50.00% (8)
3.7 (3)TDs/Game1.3 (4)

Beat The Closing Line Podcast Goes In-Depth On Bengals – Dolphins Odds

For the audio-only version of the pod, subscribe to “Beat The Closing Line” on Apple Podcasts.

Bengals vs. Dolphins Betting Insights

Why Bengals Can Cover The Spread

Not only was Miami’s defense on the field for a season-high 90 plays in the extreme heat on Sunday, but it’s also tied for the fourth-most Yards Per Play (YPP) allowed. That isn’t to say that Mike McDaniel’s doesn’t deserve its above-average standing in our NFL power rankings. Still, it’s up against a Cincinnati offense that’s operating at the eighth-highest tempo in neutral situations (via Football Outsiders) on a short week.

Albeit against the Jets, Joe Burrow looked much more in sync behind his new-look offensive line, delivering the fifth-highest Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) in Week 3. Unlike many other advanced metrics, this one isolates a QB’s performance from his opponent.

Moreover, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with back and ankle injuries, per the table above. He may have lingering effects from the hit that he suffered via Bills linebacker Matt Milano, too, briefly knocking him out of the game. If he doesn’t suit up, expect Cincinnati steam to come flying in, with veteran Teddy Bridgewater next up on the depth chart.

Why Dolphins Can Cover The Spread

If you’re backing Miami, your handicapping should revolve around the aforementioned elements already being baked into the spread. Plus, stud left tackle Terron Armstead will match up against edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, which should negate some of Cincinnati’s ability to apply pressure.

Over to the sidelines, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has an advantage over the Bengals’ Zac Taylor — in theory. Nevertheless, the short week of prep is a difficult task for the rookie guru, especially given the circumstances on both sides of the ball.

Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds

Reasons To Bet The Over

Although the Bengals’ defense has let up the fifth-lowest EPA per play, they’ve faced the likes of Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush, and Joe Flacco. Hence, they’ve been in position to crowd the box while trusting an average secondary to hold up in coverage.

Regression could be on its way if Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense operate without any concerns. That could possibly force Cincinnati into a negative game script, lending itself towards the over for Bengals – Dolphins odds.

Reasons To Bet The Under

This boils down to Cincinnati’s offense. If Burrow & Co. race out to a double-digit lead, the likelihood of Miami mounting a similar comeback to its win at Baltimore is slim. With that in mind, the Bengals would likely aim to milk clock in the second half, leading to a potential live look towards the under for the last 30 minutes. But I would lean this direction if you’re deciding between the two.

Remember, game script is a critical factor while handicapping this market — not just how efficient each offense has been in a small sample size.

Final Thoughts

If Miami accumulates some turnover luck that leads to an early deficit for Cincinnati, I may look to live bet this game. I’m expecting a Bengals outright win, but I was unable to grab anything under a field goal on Sunday evening, which makes me hesitant to bet anything pregame. As I mentioned, the variables that led to the market movement are already incorporated at this point.

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