Eli’s NFL Week 4 Best Bets: The Ravens? The Jaguars To Cover In Houston?!

As the odds for NFL Week 4 near kick-off, I’ll break down price discovery and handicap point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals while searching for the best NFL promos. The 0-3 Jaguars at the 2-1 Texans game stands out compared to my betting model and projections. Below is my analysis of my best bets for NFL Week 4. I’ll add more to this article when they’re in my account.

Click any of the odds below to place a bet. These sportsbook prices are the best available in your state.

NFL Week 4 Best Bets: jaguars +7 (to lose by six or less, or win outright)

Some readers are likely unfamiliar with the aforementioned term, price discovery. This activity starts when bets are made on the opening spread or total. Early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks may follow the same script as operators considered “market makers.” They shifted their pricing because a competitor repositioned its own. Liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to reshape the odds at other sportsbooks.

As for the look-ahead line, the odds of the Texans against Jacksonville was Houston -4.5 before Monday Night Football. But after the Bills trounced the Jaguars, the spread rose to -7.

Buy Low On Jacksonville?

After a solid run of NFL betting results in Week 2, the market took me down in Week 3. My worst pick was on these Jaguars, which failed to come close to covering my +5.5 ticket. However, I’ll plug my nose and back Jacksonville at the bottom of their market rating in a must-win divisional matchup.

There’s no sugarcoating how poorly Trevor Lawrence has performed in 2024. Among quarterbacks with at least 35 attempts, Lawrence owns the highest percentage of first-read throws. Yet, he’s completed them at a below-average clip.

Nevertheless, the Jaguars have not had the luxury of a positive script since the season opener. The pendulum may swing the other way for Travis Etienne and the rest of Jacksonville’s backfield. Houston’s defensive unit concedes the 10th-highest EPA per carry.

While the Jaguars’ defense is banged up, their Cover 1 usage (No. 1 across the league) can give C.J. Stroud fits. Dating back to his rookie season, Stroud’s accuracy rating versus man coverage ranks near the 20th percentile among qualified QBs.

With the Texans’ passing attack having also only compiled the fifth-worst success rate versus zone-centric defenses thus far, I’m skeptical that their offense will rebound on Sunday.

Final Thoughts: NFL Week 4 Best Bets

If you missed Jaguars +7 (-115 or better), I recommend waiting to see if the market bumps this number back up. Otherwise, consider placing a smaller wager on +6.5 (-110). Historically, six is still the third-most important key number when betting on NFL spreads.

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NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Ravens ml (to win outright)

Sell High On Buffalo?

Although the Bills are 3-0 straight up with Josh Allen stationed atop the NFL MVP odds board, I’ll (reluctantly) sell them at the peak of their market rating.

Buffalo’s biggest issues are its run defense and coverage over the middle of the field without linebackers Matt Milano (injured reserve) and Terrel Bernard (pectoral strain). For one, Sean McDermott’s bunch has allowed the sixth-most EPA per carry. The Ravens’ 12 and 13 personnel usage with Derrick Henry is well-positioned to exploit this group, which hasn’t faced a run-heavy offense this season.

From there, the duel-threat Lamar Jackson should thrive in play-action situations and take advantage of the weakest area of the Bills’ pass defense. It’s a small sample size, but Jackson has generated the third-highest completion percentage (70%) on play-action throws.

Conversely, Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady has reignited the offense since taking over play-calling duties in Week 11 of last season. From there onward, they rank No. 2 in the percentage of run plays and rushing success rate.

But Buffalo takes on a stiff test, even with former Ravens defensive wizard Mike Macdonald now in Seattle. Baltimore boasts arguably the NFL’s best run defense. Moreover, the Ravens employ a mix of zone coverage juxtaposed with the Jaguars. Allen has against zone schemes, including a 27:29 touchdown-to-interception ratio on early downs since 2020.

Final Thoughts

This matchup could easily feature two undefeated teams. Baltimore was inches away from going to overtime in Kansas City before squandering a double-digit fourth-quarter lead to Las Vegas.

The Ravens are third in my NFL power rankings despite their 1-2 record. I’m comfortable laying a short moneyline price in an ideal home spot. Good luck with the rest of your best bets for NFL Week 4!