NFL Week 4 Best Bets, Picks, & Odds: Favorites, Underdogs, and Value Spots

Week 4 action in the NFL is here, and we’re starting to reach the point in the season where patterns begin to take shape. With three games in the books, teams now have enough of a sample to show who they really are — or at least who they’re trending toward. Bettors also have more concrete data to lean on, while oddsmakers are continuing to tighten numbers around those early-season narratives.

That makes Week 4 a pivotal stretch. Some teams that started hot might be overvalued in the market, while others sitting at 1–2 or 0–3 could be better than their records suggest. Between line adjustments, early-season injuries, and situational angles like travel or short weeks, this slate creates plenty of chances to find value before perception fully settles in.

With that in mind, here are the best bets for Week 4 of NFL action and where the lines provide an edge today.

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Green Bay Packers (-7) vs Dallas Cowboys (-105)  

The Micah Parsons return to Dallas comes early in the season, and emotions will be running high in this one. The Cowboys haven’t been good, sitting at 1-2 after getting blown out by a previously winless Chicago Bears team. On the other side, the Packers have been phenomenal this season despite coming off a fluky loss to the Cleveland Browns — a game they really shouldn’t have dropped. That sets up Green Bay to come in with a chip on its shoulder against a Dallas roster that hasn’t shown much reason for optimism. The Cowboys defense has been underwhelming, and there’s no clear sign that things are about to turn around.

History is also on the Packers’ side. They’ve dominated this matchup, winning nine of the last 10 meetings, including a blowout playoff win in the most recent clash. Something about AT&T Stadium tends to bring out big rushing performances for Green Bay backs, which makes Josh Jacobs a name to watch. Parsons will be motivated to show why he deserved the contract Dallas refused to give him, but with the Cowboys missing two starters on the offensive line, that likely won’t be enough. Expect the Packers to not only win but do so comfortably, covering the 7-point spread with ease.

Houston Texans (-7) vs Tennessee Titans (+105)

This divisional matchup features two winless teams at 0-3, but the gap in talent and expectations couldn’t be wider. Houston is looking to channel the 2018 Texans, who famously started 0-3 before turning things around and making the playoffs. A loss here would all but bury this season, so expect Houston to come out with urgency, energy and intensity. They’re the more talented team, they’re at home, and this feels like the spot for a breakout.

The Titans are still in rebuild mode with a rookie quarterback who has shown flashes but remains inexperienced. Oddsmakers only have the Texans favored by a touchdown, which feels like disrespect. Houston has the weapons, the defense and the motivation to not just get its first win but to do so convincingly. This is a game the Texans should win by double digits as they look to make a statement and build real momentum.

Los Angeles Rams (ML) vs Indianapolis Colts (-170)

The late afternoon matchup between the Colts and Rams might be the most intriguing game of the day. Indianapolis enters 3-0 while Los Angeles sits at 2-1, but the Rams are just a fluky blocked field goal for a touchdown against the Eagles away from being undefeated themselves. The Colts deserve credit for their start, and they look like a real contender in their division with playoff upside. But But I'm still not buying their quarterback situation. Daniel Jones was a top draft pick for a reason and has looked solid in this offense, but history tells us he’s prone to regression. This feels less like a collapse spot for the Colts and more like the week their early hot streak finally cools off.

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The Rams are at home in SoFi Stadium with a veteran quarterback, two elite receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, and a strong running game. Add in a well-rounded defense and sharp coaching, and this is a complete team that has been tested against quality opponents. Oddsmakers list them as 3.5-point favorites, which feels right given the home-field edge, but the safer angle is the moneyline at -170. The Rams are the better team and should hand the Colts their first loss of the season.

Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs (Over 48.5 Points)

Ravens versus Chiefs is surprisingly a matchup between two 1-2 teams, which is not what anyone expected back in the preseason. Neither has looked great, and both have dropped some heartbreaking games. Still, these teams are clearly better than their records suggest. Baltimore feels slightly ahead right now, even going on the road to Arrowhead. One of their losses came in a down-to-the-wire thriller against Buffalo last week — flip that result and they’re 2-1 with a completely different narrative. Kansas City, meanwhile, is dealing with injuries and hasn’t looked like the dynasty version we’re used to seeing, though getting healthy will change the outlook quickly.

Regardless, these are two elite rosters led by two of the best quarterbacks in the league, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. A matchup like this almost always delivers drama. Even if the defenses keep things tight for a half, the fourth quarter could turn into a shootout by itself. With both teams desperate to avoid falling to 1-3, this sets up as a high-scoring game. The 48.5 total feels like the perfect spot to take the over in a clash that has all the makings of fireworks.