The Recency Report: NFL Week 2 Market Moves And Week 3 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on September 13, 2019 - Last Updated on September 14, 2019
nfl week 3 opening lines

A record road favorite line on the Patriots plus eight home underdogs make for several interesting Week 2 betting lines. The NFL moves on from an exciting opening week that included a game-winning 58-yard field goal by Saints kicker Lutz to give New Orleans a 30-28 win over Houston on Monday Night Football. Week 1 favorites went 10-5-1 but just 6-10 ATS.

In providing additional information and sports betting resources, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. But first, here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 2 NFL card:

  • Will Antonio Brown’s latest troubles impact his play and the Patriots performance as they hit the road as a near-record 18.5-point favorite at Miami?
  • Has the line adjusted too much on the Texans (-9) with the Jaguars now starting backup QB Gardner Minshew following Nick Foles’ broken clavicle last week?
  • How ’bout them Cowboys?! Dallas rolled over the NY Giants in Week 1 with nearly 500 yards offense at 8.0 yards per play. The Cowboys now face fierce rival Washington on road as 5.5-point favorites after Redskins rushed for just 28 yards in a 32-27 division defeat to Philadelphia.

Week 2 kicked off Thursday, Sept. 12 with a pair of winless teams in an NFC South division duel when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers battled at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. The Buccaneers won outright as a near-touchdown underdog.

In this article we take a look at the line movement for the rest of the Week 2 games, along with the opening lines for Week 3 at FanDuel.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to previous weeks scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 2 market movement

Week 2 of the NFL season often provides an overreaction in the betting market following Week 1 results. The betting lines move quickly, and whether it’s injury-related like the Jaguars quarterback situation or the poor performance on the field like the Dolphins, Week 2 can provide some of the biggest adjustments of the season.

A look at the current Week 2 lines compared to the look-ahead lines from last week shows some of the adjustments made by the bookmakers and influence in the market based on news and results.

GameOpenCurrent
TB at CARCAR -5.5CAR -7
IND at TENTEN -3TEN -3
LAC at DETLAC -3.5LAC -2.5
BUF at NYGBUF -2.5BUF -1.5
AZ at BALBAL -9.5BAL -13
NE at MIANE -9.5NE -18.5
DAL at WASDAL -3.5DAL -4.5
JAX at HOUHOU -3HOU -9.5
SEA at PITPIT -4.5PIT -4.5
SF at CINSF -2.5CIN -2
MN at GBGB -2.5GB -3
KC at OAKKC -6.5KC -7.5
NO at LARLAR -2.5LAR -2.5
CHI at DENCHI -1CHI -2.5
PHI at ATLATL -1PHI -1.5
CLE at NYJCLE -3CLE -6.5

Analysis:

  • New England at Miami: The biggest move and line adjustment was made on the Patriots. New England is up to an 18.5 point road favorite after the look-ahead line had the Patriots a 9.5 point favorite. After Miami was mauled by Baltimore 59-10 in Week 1, the national TV audience watched New England pound Pittsburgh 33-3 on Sunday Night Football, it’s clear what side bettors prefer and the Patriots are taking nearly 80% of the spread bets at a large consensus of online sportsbooks tracked by Sports Insights. The Patriots were a 19-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday morning.
  • Jacksonville at Houston: The loss of Jaguars starting QB Nick Foles to a shoulder injury last week caused an immediate move up as the Texans line moved 6.5 points up to a 9.5-point favorite. Jaguars rookie QB Gardner Minshew hit 22-of-25 passes for 275 yards and two TDs and an INT. Houston returns home on a short week following their emotional 30-28 last-second loss at New Orleans.
  • Arizona at Baltimore: The Ravens are the other major move from the look-ahead lines, going from a 9.5 point favorite to -13. Bettors loved what they saw out of Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense, racking up a week-high 643 yards at 8.8 yards per play. The Ravens rushed for 265 yards on 46 attempts and held the ball for more than 40 minutes in a 59-10 thrashing of Miami. Jackson passed for five touchdowns. The Cardinals pulled off a miraculous rally to finish in an overtime tie versus Detroit 27-27. But Arizona allowed 477 total yards with 361 net passing yards by Lions QB Matthew Stafford, providing more salivation for Jackson and the Ravens offense returning home.

Key Week 2 situations and systems: Teams playing back-to-back road games to start the season are just 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS since 2015. This play against system applies to San Francisco, Buffalo, Kansas City and Indianapolis.

Week 3 look-ahead lines

GameFanDuel Opener
Tennessee at JacksonvilleJAX -3.5
Cincinnati at BuffaloBUF -4
Miami at DallasDAL -15.5
Denver at Green BayGB -6.5
Atlanta at IndianapolisIND -1.5
Baltimore at Kansas CityKC -4.5
Oakland at MinnesotaMIN -7.5
NY Jets at New EnglandNE -14.5
Detroit at PhiladelphiaPHI -7.5
Carolina at ArizonaCAR -3
NY Giants at Tampa BayTB -4
Houston at LA ChargersLAC -3.5
Pittsburgh at San FranciscoPIT -1
New Orleans at SeattleSEA -1
LA Rams at ClevelandLAR -1
Chicago at WashingtonCHI -4

Week 3 includes two division games: Tennessee at Jacksonville on Thursday and New York Jets at New England on Sunday.

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular season game. The biggest projected lines were NY Jets at New England (-10) and Miami at Dallas (-9), which you knew would be at least a touchdown higher following Week 1 results.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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