NFL Week 3 Implied Team Totals: Can Dolphins Light Up Scoreboard Again?

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on September 21, 2022
NFL week 3 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 3 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 3 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sept. 20, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 3 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Bills30DolphinsAway-5.553.5
Vikings29LionsHome-652.5
Chiefs28ColtsAway-749.5
Eagles28CommandersAway-6.549
Chargers28JaguarsHome-748
Rams27CardinalsAway-450.5
Bengals25JetsAway-545.5
49ers24BroncosAway-1.545.5
Dolphins24BillsHome5.553.5
Raiders24TitansAway-2.545.5
Lions23VikingsAway652.5
Ravens23PatriotsAway-343.5
Cardinals23RamsHome450.5
Titans22RaidersHome2.545.5
Broncos2249ersHome1.545.5
Buccaneers22PackersHome-2.541.5
Bears22TexansHome-340.5
Browns22SteelersHome-5.538
Seahawks22FalconsHome242
Saints22PanthersAway-2.540.5
Colts21ChiefsHome748
Commanders21EaglesHome6.549
Giants21CowboysHome-2.539.5
Jaguars21ChargersAway748
Packers20BuccaneersAway2.541.5
Patriots20RavensHome343.5
Falcons20SeahawksAway242
Jets20BengalsHome545.5
Panthers19SaintsHome2.540.5
Texans19BearsAway340.5
Cowboys19GiantsAway2.539.5
Steelers16BrownsAway5.538

Highest NFL Week 3 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Chiefs3030.5+100-120
Bills3029.5-120+100
Rams2929.5-110-110
Raiders2929.5-105-115
Broncos2827.5-110-110

LA Chargers

There’s a lot going on here.

First and foremost for both this game and the near future of the Chargers: Justin Herbert’s health. The young star sustained a fracture to his rib cartilage. His availability for Week 3 remains in question. This line will move toward Jacksonville in a hurry if Herbert sits, and the Chargers team total will shrink as well.

Even if Herbert does play, keep an eye on the availability of Keenan Allen. The offense looked rather unexciting without the star receiver in the loss to Kansas City. While Herbert had a productive day on the surface with 334 yards, 73 of that came on a final drive when the game was all but decided. He also consistently threw short and saw Austin Ekeler break a couple of big gains due to poor Chiefs tackling.

Finally, the Jaguars have gotten off to a stellar start on defense. They rank third in defense DVOA after throttling the Colts. How much of that has to do with improvement from a unit that ranked 31st last year and how much has to do with a Colts team starting Parris Campbell and Ashton Dulin at WR?

Minnesota Vikings

Many expected prolific offense from the Vikings in 2022. What they have produced so far is…not that. After a pretty promising debut, the unit fell flat against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. Everything fell apart when Darius Slay effectively eliminated Justin Jefferson from the game. The end result has been a middling offense.

Well, the cure for a middling offense might be on the opposing sideline this week. The Lions have gotten themselves into two barnburners, allowing 38 and 27 points in their first two games. While DVOA thinks they’ve done OK, EPA/play data decidedly does not, ranking the defense bottom five. Aidan Hutchinson came alive and sparked a big day for the pass rush in Week 2, but this cornerback group does not inspire any confidence.

If Minnesota can keep Kirk Cousins protected, their receivers should have their way against Detroit indoors.

Lowest NFL Week 3 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Steelers1616.5-110-110
Cowboys1918.5-115-105
Texans1919.5-105-115
Panthers1919.5-110-110

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers get to carry the dubious distinction of lowest implied point total of the young season at 16. The offense has been about as bad as expected thus far. New England has a pretty weak secondary, and yet Mitch Trubisky got an abysmal 4.2 YPA on dropbacks. Najee Harris has yet to get going in any form or fashion on the ground, totaling 72 rush yards on 25 carries.

What’s most fascinating about this number and this spot, though, is the Browns defense. A strong unit on paper has been awful early on despite facing two offenses with decidedly low expectations. Rookie WR Garrett Wilson made mincemeat of this secondary all day, and a blown coverage allowed (not) noted deep threat Corey Davis to get free for a long TD. It was the second straight week the secondary let someone get behind them for a bomb.

While Trubisky has struggled to consistently move the sticks, he does have a pretty high air yards average at 8.

Browns EDGE Jadeveon Clowney has already been ruled out for Thursday as well.

Houston Texans

To nobody’s surprise, the Texans have gotten off to a poor start on offense. If the Steelers getting 4.2 YPA on dropbacks was bad, the Texans managing 3.8 against the Broncos lowered the bar beyond even that.

This matchup against the Bears could drag the offense down as well. Not necessarily because the Bears have a good defense, but their style of play has not been conducive to points being scored. They rank top of the league (by a lot) in rushing rate, pounding the rock 65% of the time. For reference, the Eagles led last year with below 50%. Combine that with the second-slowest pace — only Seattle has been pokier — and you have a recipe for very low scores.

What’s most striking about the Bears’ offensive tendencies is they have run the ball so frequently despite trailing often through the first two games. How often would they run the ball if they had some leads, as the market thinks they will here?

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Dolphins2423.5-110-110
49ers2423.5+100-120

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins face the Bills in what market-setting books initially expected to be a high-scoring affair. Turned out, the market expected even more scoring as the number has been bet as high as 54 before settling back at 53 following some buy back. It opened at 51.5 in DraftKings Sportsbook look-aheads.

Tua Tagovailoa and his speedy targets left quite an impression, it seems, after they went for a staggering 461 net passing yards. That included TDs of 60 and 59 yards by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, respectively.

Without Tre’Davious White, the Bills do not appear to have corners that can match up here. However, they do have a well-coached defense and a pair of great safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. So, it will be interesting to see whether the Dolphins can continue to churn out explosive plays.

San Francisco 49ers

Granted, he had to operate in pretty tough conditions, but Trey Lance simply did not produce for the 49ers when upright. By EPA/play, which forgives his low snap total, he landed in the bottom five quarterbacks. His completion percentage over expectation came out at a staggeringly awful -17.3%. Only Dak Prescott did worse.

This in the context of an offense in which Jimmy Garoppolo produced like a star the past few seasons.

Now, Garoppolo gets the reins again. However, things won’t be easy on the road against a lauded Denver secondary. George Kittle playing would make quite a difference, as the Broncos LBs don’t look as strong in coverage as their teammates behind them.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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