NFL Week 3 Game Preview: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Written By FairwayJay on September 24, 2022
Bills Dolphins odds

The Buffalo Bills (2-0) visit the Miami Dolphins (2-0) at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 25. The early AFC East division kickoff shows the Bills as spread favorites and on the moneyline. The point total in Bills Dolphins odds is set at .

In this article, we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, weather and the best available NFL Week 3 odds. Click on the odds anywhere in this post to bet now.

Bills at Dolphins Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the odds table, click the dropdown menu and select the type of bet you wish to make. 

Betting the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A plus sign in front of the spread denotes the underdog, and a minus sign indicates the favorite.

In this case, the Bills would have to win by at least 6 points if you bet them to cover the point spread (-5.5). A spread bet on the Dolphins would win if they win the game or lose by 1-5 points.   

Betting the moneyline is simply betting on which particular team will win a game.

The betting total is the number of combined points the two teams will score. Bettors can choose to bet the over or under on how many total points will be scored in the game. 

Bills vs Dolphins Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. Unlike bigger markets like moneylines and spreads that often reach a consensus number, shopping for prop bet lines can often reveal sizable differences in the numbers.

Bills vs Dolphins Betting News & Angles

Use this rolling, updating list of news bites about each team to help your handicapping for Bills – Dolphins odds.

The Bills had taken 79% of the spread bets and 83% of spread money at FanDuel Sportsbook, as of Thursday afternoon. In the over/under market, 82% of the bets and 72% of the handle were on the ‘Over’.

Bills vs Dolphins Injury Report

PlayerPositionInjuryWedThuFriGame Status
Gabe DavisWRAnkleLPLPLPQuestionable
Dane JacksonCBNeckDNPDNPDNPOut
Cam LewisCBForearmFPFPFPUnspecified
Dawson KnoxTEFootDNPLPLPQuestionable
Matt MilanoOLBNeckFPFPFPUnspecified
Mitch MorseCElbowLPLPLPQuestionable
Ed OliverDTAnkleLPLPLPOut
Jordan PhillipsDTHamstringDNPDNPDNPOut
Jordan PoyerFSFootLPDNPLPQuestionable
Tim SettleDTCalfLPLPLPQuestionable
Reggie GilliamFBElbowFPFPUnspecified
Stefon DiggsWRVet RestDNPUnspecified
Taiwan JonesRBVet RestDNPUnspecified
PlayerPositionInjuryWedThuFriGame Status
Terron ArmsteadOTToeDNPDNPDNPQuestionable
Cethan CarterTECethan CarterDNPDNPDNPOut
Xavien HowardCBGroinDNPLPLPQuestionable
Melvin IngramOLBNot Injury Related - Vet RestDNP(-)(-)(-)
Hunter LongTEAnkleDNPDNPDNPOut
Channing TindallLBIllnessLPFPFP(-)
Ced WilsonWRRibs / ToeLPLPLPQuestionable
Tanner ConnerTEKneeFPFPFP(-)
Raekwon DavisDTKneeFPLPLPQuestionable
Alec IngoldFBShoulderFPFPFP(-)

Bills vs Dolphins weather

As of 8pm on Thursday, Sept. 22, the forecast in Miami calls for partly cloudy skies and high 80’s temperatures with Southeast winds about 10 mph at kickoff and throughout the game. It will feel like 105 degrees as near 80% humidity is projected. 

Bills Offense vs. Dolphins Defense

Bills OStats (Rank)Dolphins D
36 (1)Points/Gm22.5 (18)
0.585 (2)Points/Play0.417 (23)
413 (3)Yards/Gm372 (21)
302 (4)Pass Yards/Gm255.5 (23)
111 (14)Rush Yards/Gm116.5 (17)
6.7 (3)Yards/Play6.9 (32)
8.6 (4)Yards/Pass8.7 (32)
4.5 (14)Yards/Rush5.9 (24)
60.87 (1)3rd Down %36.84 (16)
71.43 (9)Red Zone TD %75.0 (25)
4.05 (8)QB Sacked %3.28 (28)

Dolphins Offense vs. Bills Defense

Dolphins OStats (Rank)Bills D
31 (4)Points/Gm8.5 (2)
0.484 (5)Points/Play0.743 (2)
427 (2)Yards/Gm215 (2)
351 (1)Pass Yards/Gm149 (2)
75 (28)Rush Yards/Gm66 (1)
6.7 (3)Yards/Play3.6 (1)
8.9 (3)Yards/Pass4.6 (2)
3.7 (25)Yards/Rush2.9 (3)
52.0 (6)3rd Down %40.0 (19)
66.67 (12)Red Zone TD %66.67 (19)
1.0Turnovers/Gm3.3 (1)
4.60 (11)QB Sacked %12.16 (1)

Bills at Dolphins Betting Insights

Why The Bills Can Cover The Spread

The Bills lead the league in scoring offense at 36 points per game. The Josh Allen to Stephon Diggs connection has produced 270 yards and 4 TDs in two games and the offense is top-3 in a number of other offensive categories including 413 yards per game. The Bills defense is top-2 in seven different categories noted below including points per game (8.5) and yards per game (215). Buffalo dominated the Rams and Titans and has been the most complete team through two games.

Why The Dolphins Can Cover The Spread

Miami’s offense exploded last week in a huge fourth quarter comeback win over the Ravens, 42-38. Tua Tagovailoa tossed 6 TD passes, and receivers Tyreek Hill (284 yards) and Jaylen Waddle (240 yards) are No. 1 and No. 3 in receiving yards this season while flying on go routes. The Bills starting safeties are banged up, and both starting cornerbacks are out leaving Buffalo with a pair of rookie cornerbacks on an island against Hill and Waddle. Dr. Bob Sports notes that teams that have scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 13 points in consecutive games, as the Bills have, are just 19-55 ATS since 1980.

Reasons To Bet The Over

How do you slow these explosive offenses and top-3 receivers? Tua tops the league in gross passing yards (739) and Josh Allen is No. 4 at 716 yards. Allen can also run, and the Dolphins defense was torched last week by mobile Lamar Jackson and allowed a week-high 8.8 yards per play.

Reasons To Bet The Under

Miami Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard limited Bills WR Stephon Diggs to 6.7 yards per target in two games last season, and the Dolphins defense has conceded just 12 receiving yards to running backs this season to rank strong in that metric again in 2022. The Bills defense has to overcome some personnel injuries in this match-ups, but Buffalo has been the dominant defense thus far limiting the Rams to 3.7 yards per play and Titans to 3.5 while creating seven turnovers. 

Bills at Dolphins props: matchups to watch for

Highlight three key matchups that could impact player props and highlight the best available odds using MetaBet dynamic text.

Dolphins receivers vs Bills secondary

Miami’s new LT Terron Armstead has allowed just three quarterback pressures on 88 pass-blocking snaps this year. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa should have time to deliver and hit quick hitters to his speedy receivers Tyreek Hill (o/u 73.5 DK) and Jaylen Waddle (o/u 61.5 FD) against rookie replacement cornerbacks. Buffalo plays heavy zone defense, but the go routes and after the catch yards will be tough to contain as the Bills safety’s Micah Hyde (neck) and Jordan Poyer (foot) are also less than full strength.       

Tyreek Hill receiving yards: Over/Under / ()

Jaylen Waddle receiving yards: Over/Under / ()

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs Bills defense

Tua’s o/u passing yards prop is 253.5 at FanDuel. He hit 56% of his attempts last week within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage and both Waddle (116 yards) and Hill (104) exploded on yards after the catch. The Bills secondary is compromised as noted with two rookie cornerbacks, and the safeties are likely to get beat deep on some plays or take extra drops which will provide plenty of space in the underneath zones for Tua to hit.

Tua Tagovailoa passing yards: Over/Under / ()

Bills QB Josh Allen vs Dolphins defense

Allen is playing like the MVP favorite to start the season. His run/pass ability makes him a dangerous threat, and Caesars has his o/u pass and rush yards at 325.5. Will the humidity and Dolphins defense slow down Bills quarterback and offense? Buffalo’s new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey should try to script a similar plan as the Ravens did last week in piling up 155 rushing and 318 passing yards at 8.8 yards per play without a turnover.

Josh Allen rushing yards: Over/Under / ()

Final thoughts

This is likely the most watched and wagered game of Week 3 odds, and the spread has dropped from the key number 6 favoring Buffalo despite heavy betting on the Bills. With leading offensive players, the props and Same Game Parlays will be popular along with additional live betting action throughout the game. The week’s highest total suggests a shootout and makes this first place showdown in the AFC East an early season highlight. Best of luck betting on Bills Dolphins odds.

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FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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