Best NFL Week 3 DFS Games, Stacks, Lineup Picks To Target + $20 Deposit Bonus
Through two weeks of the NFL season, projected-high total games haven’t disappointed much. The Miami Dolphins delivered in back-to-back weeks, as have the Los Angeles Chargers – at least on the DFS front. However, a couple of high-octane offenses have yet to show, namely the Bengals. In Week 3, the NFL slate doesn’t pack much of a punch in terms of DFS, and players should be wary about some of the games. Let’s go over the schedule and see what games and stacks we might want to consider early in the week.
As you begin to build your DFS lineups for the week, I recommend first looking at the Over/Under of each game. NFL Week 3 odds can help nudge you in the direction of high-scoring affairs, which is exactly what you want in your DFS lineups.
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NFL Week 3 DFS Game To Target
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Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (O/U )
Nobody in the NFL has allowed a higher EPA per play or per pass than the Chargers. That’s excellent news for the Minnesota Vikings and their pass-catching corps. Through two weeks, Kirk Cousins is second in passing yards and tied for the lead in passing touchdowns while completing nearly 73% of his passes. Star Justin Jefferson leads the league in receiving yards thus far with back-to-back 150-yard outings, but it’s rookie Jordan Addison who leads the receiving corps in scores.
On the flip side, Justin Herbert is producing the NFL’s third-ranked offense in EPA per play. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are splitting targets about evenly, though Allen found pay dirt twice in Week 2. It is clear that Joshua Kelley is not, in fact, Austin Ekeler. After a dreary Week 2, his DFS price may drop heading into Week 3, pushing him back into value territory.
Minnesota is more easily stackable in this game for more value; rather than pairing Cousins with Jefferson, Addison, TJ Hockenson, and KJ Osborne offer discount alternatives. On the Bolts’ side, you’ll be paying up for Herbert and his targets.
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Individual Teams To Target
Three games offer intriguing Over/Unders for DFS purposes, but be wary of large-point spreads. Not both sides of these games are stackable, so let’s get into those.
Kansas City Chiefs, vs. Chicago Bears
On a week with just one game usurping a 50-point total, DFS players have to find value where they can. A over/under would normally be of interest, but not both sides are equal. As a 12.5-point favorite, the Chiefs have an implied team total of 30.9 – ripe for the DFS picking. However, that leaves the Bears with just 18.3 implied team points.
To stack Patrick Mahomes with his only reliable target (Travis Kelce) is going to cost a fortune. However, more value plays for KC include Jerick McKinnon and Sky Moore along with Mahomes. 72% of opposing yardage has come through the air on the Bears so far, the 11th-most in the league. They allow explosive plays (29th in EPA per play), but not a ton of success (10th in success rate allowed). That means choosing Chiefs to add to your lineup will be a true boom-or-bust deal.
Dallas Cowboys, at Arizona Cardinals
Contrary to the prior example, players would almost never consider targeting a game with a 43-point over/under for stacking purposes. But in this case, the Dallas Cowboys are worth a look. They have an implied team total of 28 – second-most on the Sunday slate – and offer enough options across the board to consider. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are the obvious examples here, as Lamb soaked up a 27.4% target share through two games.
The other obvious play is the Cowboys’ defense, although they’ll likely be priced at an unplayable number. Although it appears they’ll nearly be a guarantee for a dozen or more points, there are other cheaper options that’ll get the job done this week. It probably goes without saying to leave the entirety of the Cardinals‘ roster alone this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars, vs. Houston Texans
After scoring just six points on the road at Kansas City, we need to sort through some misleading numbers. For one, the Jaguars have the second-worst EPA per play mark in the NFL, ahead of only Pittsburgh. However, the Chiefs’ defense has been a seriously disruptive unit this year and returned Chris Jones for Week 2. Against a softer team like the Texans (8th-highest EPA per play allowed), Trevor Lawrence & Co. have an opportunity for a real rebound.
Christian Kirk played a spoiler last week to Calvin Ridley’s managers, but Ridley still owns a 26% target share. His price may not waver given the competition, so you may need to find savings elsewhere to fit a Lawrence-Ridley stack into your lineup this week. A better option may be to pair Lawrence with Travis Etienne, as Houston allowed the third-highest EPA per rush through two weeks. Etienne was dreadful last week and may see a dip in salary for Week 3.
NFL Week 3 DFS: Games To Avoid
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (O/U )
The Browns‘ offense runs through Nick Chubb. This season, the Titans have effectively mitigated opposing teams’ run games, allowing the single-worst rushing success rate thus far (just 20%!!). On the other side, the Titans’ offense runs through Derrick Henry. This season, the Browns, too, have effectively mitigated opposing teams’ run games, allowing the second-worst rushing success rate (22.2%). King Henry has just a 3.6-yard per-carry average through his first two games.
At just points, the methodical and defensive-focused script would be a gross gesture for DFS players trying to find value in Cleveland this weekend. Though early, the NFL weather forecast at Browns Stadium calls for rain on Sunday.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (O/U )
It really goes without saying as to why DFS players might want to avoid stacking a game with an Iowa-esque point total. Breece Hall voiced his frustration after receiving just four carries in a 30-10 loss to the Cowboys and now goes into a game against a savvy Patriots‘ run defense. Garrett Wilson may be unplayable this week, given his expected high salary despite Zach Wilson at quarterback. On the other side, the Jets continue to shut down the run and present a vicious-enough pass rush to disrupt Mac Jones and the Pats’ passing attack.