The Detroit Lions (1-1) visit the NFC North-rival Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 25. The Vikings are home favorites and on the moneyline. Lions Vikings odds feature an over/under currently set at points.
Below, we’ll break down what you need to know before betting this game, including team matchups, key metrics, props, and the best available Lions at Vikings odds.
Lions At Vikings Betting Odds
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Lions At Vikings Player Props
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Lions At Vikings Betting News & Angles
Lions At Vikings Injury Report
|Tracy Walker III||FS||Not Injury Related||(-)||DNP||DNP||(-)|
Lions Offense Vs. Vikings Defense
|Lions O||Stats (Rank)||Vikings D|
|35.5 (2nd)||Points/Gm||15.5 (6th)|
|0.559 (4th)||Points/Play||0.240 (6th)|
|405.5 (4th)||Yards/Gm||412.0 (29th)|
|219.5 (19th)||Pass Yards/Gm||275.0 (29th)|
|186.0 (3rd)||Rush Yards/Gm||137.0 (24th)|
|6.4 (6th)||Yards/Play||6.4 (28th)|
|6.2 (18th)||Yards/Pass||7.9 (31st)|
|7.2 (1st)||Yards/Rush||5.3 (28th)|
|48.15% (22nd)||3rd Down %||45.45% (22nd)|
|80.0% (4th)||Red Zone TD %||40.0% (7th)|
|0.5 (1st)||Turnovers||1.5 (10th)|
|2.0 (t-13th)||Sacks||3.5 (t-4th)|
Vikings Offense Vs. Lions Defense
|Vikings O||Stats (Rank)||Lions D|
|15.0 (25th)||Points/Gm||32.5 (31st)|
|0.250 (24th)||Points/Play||0.451 (25th)|
|329.5 (20th)||Yards/Gm||425.5 (30th)|
|235.5 (13th)||Pass Yards/Gm||273.5 (27th)|
|94.0 (21st)||Rush Yards/Gm||152.0 (26th)|
|5.5 (13th)||Yards/Play||5.9 (22nd)|
|6.0 (20th)||Yards/Pass||7.0 (22nd)|
|4.8 (10th)||Yards/Rush||5.1 (27th)|
|32.0% (23rd)||3rd Down %||53.13% (30th)|
|28.57% (28th)||Red Zone TD %||87.5% (30th)|
|1.5 (17th)||Turnovers||0.5 (23rd)|
|1.5 (t-7th)||Sacks||3.0 (t-7th)|
Lions at Vikings Betting Insights
Why the Lions Can Cover The Spread
Why can’t the Lions cover the spread is an easier question to answer here and that’s why they’re my pick in this game (more on that below). Aside from being a cover machine for the past season-and-change, the Lions appear to have a legitimate offense. Using the transitive property is dangerous in football, but looking at offensive performance against a common opponent here can be useful.
Against the Eagles, the Lions rushed for 180 yards and three touchdowns. Conversely, Dalvin Cook was held to just 17 yards on six carries and Kirk Cousins threw a trio of interceptions. Detroit scored 21 points through the first three quarters (plus 14 more late) while Minnesota mustered just seven. Both defenses performed similarly, with Jalen Hurts running wild both times.
Spotting the Lions nearly an entire touchdown was a mistake and that’s why the line’s fallen down through six.
Why The Vikings Can Cover The Spread
Detroit’s backdoor cover luck has to run out of time at some point, right? The Minnesota Vikings we saw on Monday Night Football weren’t the same team that beat the Packers 21-7 in Week 1. Cousins is notoriously awful in primetime situations, so the result against the Eagles might want to be taken with a grain of salt.
The same arguments for Detroit’s offense to succeed apply for Minnesota, as well. They have a star running back in Cook and a superstar receiver in Justin Jefferson that the Lions don’t have a good answer to. The Lions’ defense is particularly bad at containing explosive passing plays, ranking 24th in dropback EPA. Their defense has also been gashed by explosive run plays, sitting 28th in rush EPA defense.
The Vikings are going to score points– that’s a foregone conclusion. But if Minnesota’s defense (that showed it can play well) puts their foot down and closes strong to avoid a late barrage of scoring, the Vikings will cover this spread.
Reasons To Bet The Over
The two most simple reasons to bet this over– and a juicy over that is– are Detroit’s offense that generates explosive plays and Detroit’s defense that gives up explosive plays. The Lions have given up at least 30 points in a game eight times since the start of 2021, including in one of two games this year.
Minnesota counters with explosive play potential, though that potential was bottled up by Philadelphia on Monday night. Jefferson poses one of the biggest home run threats in the NFL (maybe second only to Ja’Marr Chase) and players like Irv Smith Jr. and Adam Thielen add depth around the goalline.
There’s not many reasons to bet the under, perhaps except how high that total is ().
Reasons To Bet The Under
The Vikings defense had a terrific game plan against the Packers in Week 1, holding Aaron Rodgers & Co. to just seven points. Za’Darius Smith generated a lot of pressure and Green Bay overall failed to move the ball. After an abysmal showing on Monday Night Football and returning home, the defense could step back into those shoes for Week 3.
This game also has the highest over/under on the week, just edging out the Dolphins-Bills total. Fading an unusually-high number could be fruitful even with two explosive offenses on hand.
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Lions At Vikings Props: Matchups To Watch For
Justin Jefferson versus … Who? Just six players with over 100 targets logged at least 15 yards per reception last season and Jefferson was the only one among them to log 100 receptions. He’s a certified home run threat who can take the top off a defense on any given play. He’s nearly impossible to scheme out of a game and the Lions are dealing with an injury to starting corner Amani Oruwariye. The Lions gave up 155 yards to AJ Brown in Week 1 and 75+ yards to both Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin last week. This secondary bleeds yards.
- Current receiving prop: Over/Under /()
Vikings’ Front Seven Vs. Lions OL: The Detroit Lions have one of the best offensive lines in football. Per Football Outsiders, they’re fourth in adjusted line yards (5.44) and cleared the way for the top spot in yards per carry (7.2). However, starters Frank Ragnow and Jonah Jackson both landed on the injury report this week. Ragnow appears to be on track to play, but Jackson was a DNP.
The early line Monday pinned Detroit as a 7-point road underdog. That’s moved down to 5.5 midweek as action comes in on the Lions. The move off a key figure (+7) and through six points is significant– 23% of NFL games end with a seven- or six-point differential, known as a “push rate.” Push rates are important when considering line movement and timing your bets.
I was quick enough to grab the Lions +7 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook early in the week. While the closing line value is long gone from this bet, I’m still comfortable with Lions +6. Three of the last four meetings between these two ended in a two-point deficit. Since then, the Lions have improved their offense dramatically and their defense remained much of the same. Anything above a field goal is actionable to me.
Best of luck betting Lions Vikings odds.