Eli’s NFL Week 3 Best Bets: Will Cardinals, Titans Cover The Spread?

As the odds for NFL Week 3 near kick-off, I’ll break down price discovery before handicapping point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals in this piece while shopping for the best NFL promos. The Packers at Titans and Lions at Cardinals matchups stick out compared to my betting model. Below is my analysis of my best bets for NFL Week 3.

Click any of the NFL betting odds below to place a bet. These sportsbook prices are the best available in your state.

NFL Week 3 Best Bets: titans -2.5 (to win by three or more)

Some readers are likely unfamiliar with the aforementioned term, price discovery. This activity starts when bets are made on the opening spread or total. Early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks may follow the same script as operators considered “market makers.” They shifted their pricing because a competitor repositioned its own. Liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to reshape the odds at other sportsbooks.

As for the look-ahead line, the odds for the Packers against the Titans had Green Bay favored by 3.5 points. But with Jordan Love (sprained MCL) thought to be sidelined again, Tennessee reopened as a one-point favorite before rising to Tennessee Titans +15.5 (-112) on FanDuel.

Rushing Regression?

With over a week to prep for the Colts, Packers coach Matt LaFleur designed an ultra-efficient service academy offense while simplifying the passing game for Malik Willis. The backup accrued 6.2 air yards per attempt, the ninth fewest among qualified quarterbacks in Week 2.

But Willis was notably aided by Green Bay’s rushing attack, with 68.1% of its total offense coming on the ground. Josh Jacobs and Co. accumulated 53 rush attempts, one behind the most attempts in a single game during the last decade.

Usually, Cinderella stories are temporary. Consider that Indianapolis’ defense has let up the 10th-highest rushing success rate over the last two-plus seasons. Unless Love returns to full strength, it is difficult to imagine the Packers replicating this level of prosperity against a Titans unit that has surrendered the ninth-fewest EPA per play.

Tennessee could load the box if Willis is under center, leaving standout cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie on an island. Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson runs Cover 0 or 1, both man-to-man schemes, at an above-average clip.

Nevertheless, they’ve already generated the highest stuff rate (30.4%) while crowding the line of scrimmage at the third-lowest clip.

The Unlucky Titans

The Titans are off to an 0-2 start, straight up and ATS, despite yielding the fewest total yards across the NFL. They’ve allowed the fewest yards by an 0-2 team since the 1994 Cardinals.

To add insult to injury, Tennessee became the first team to concede a blocked punt, throw an interception, and lose a fumble in consecutive games since the Chargers did so in 2002. I’ve stated ad nauseam that turnovers aren’t predictive. This stretch represents the extreme of this notion.

Given that Will Levis’ EPA+CPOE composite rating still ranks a hair below league average, the sky is not falling in Nashville. If the Titans can establish their ground game against the Packers’ sloppy run defense, their offense should bounce back.

In the last decade, teams that began 0-2 SU and ATS are 32-17-1 ATS (65.3%) in Week 3. Granted, trends should only provide context. The Titans are favored against a better team, so it’s another instance of a buy-low spot under these parameters.

Final Thoughts

Since I already bet on Titans -2.5 (-120) in my sportsbook account, I’m admittedly the recipient of the worst number as of this publication. Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to receive instant alerts whenever I place a wager. New users can access the #roles server to enroll in these push notifications.

The market movement is a result of Love’s limited participation in Wednesday’s practice. The Packers sent smokescreens last week, but Love was a DNP on the injury report all three days. Green Bay is among the more conservative teams with injuries.

We don’t know if Love’s limited practice is enough signal to indicate he will suit up on Sunday.

Listen to Behind The Closing Number on Apple or Spotify, featuring Eli Hershkovich with ESPN’s Ben Solak and The Ringer’s Raheem Palmer.

NFL Week 3 Best Bets: cardinals +3 (to lose by two or fewer or win)

Buy Arizona, Sell Detroit (For Now)

On the surface, the Lions have dealt with some misfortune in the first two contests. Jared Goff is 11-of-18 passing inside the 20-yard line. The number of completions (11) and attempts (18) are the most in the NFL.

Against the “Luck-caneers” in Week 2, Detroit ran 28 offensive plays in the final frame, 23 in opposing territory, failing to score a point.

But Goff’s inefficiency and two interceptions correlate with Todd Bowles’ zone-centric, blitz-heavy defense. Over the last year-plus, he’s notched the most interceptions versus zone coverage (14) among qualified QBs. His pressured catchable pass rate is below the league average.

Remember that the Cardinals’ defense operates the league’s eighth-highest Cover 3 (zone) rate and utilizes Cover 0, which dial up pressure packages at the highest clip. Arizona took advantage of the Rams’ banged-up offense in its home opener, inflating its market perception somewhat. However, it’s structured to stymie Goff. Both things can be true.

Conversely, I’ve completely bought into the Cardinals’ gaudy offensive ceiling. If bettors ignore their top-three EPA per play via a small sample, they were a top-10 offense in EPA per play, yards per play (YPP), and touchdown drive rate in Weeks 10-18 last season.

This span aligns with when Kyler Murray, a viable candidate among NFL MVP odds, reentered the fold. The duel threat Murray is historically more proficient against man coverage than zone looks. Better yet, the Lions’ exploitable secondary is tied for the league’s highest percentage of Cover 1 usage.

To boot, Murray’s knack for escaping the pocket will be critical against the Lions’ frequent blitz packages.

Final Thoughts

The market has shortened this spread from -4 (-110) on the look-ahead to -3 (-115), yet it hasn’t fully crossed the key number.

I’m willing to bet that Detroit’s Week 2 struggles were no fluke. Moreover, I’ve wagered on the Cardinals to make the playoffs, with +240 odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

bonus NFL Week 3 Best Bets: Dolphins +4.5 (To Lose By Four Or More Or Win)

Since 2020, Dolphins QB Skylar Thompson has ranked No. 109 in EPA per dropback. That doesn’t create much confidence in his ability to hang with the surprising 2-0 Seahawks. However, it’s a small sample size. Thompson has started three games, all coming in the 2022 season.

He battled the upper-echelon defenses of the Jets and Patriots in two of them. The other was against the Bills in the wild-card round, where he helped Miami cover a double-digit spread and nearly pulled off a stunning upset.

Although the Seahawks’ defense has performed at a top-10 level, their wins have come against New England and Denver, both power-rated well below league average. While this spread has shifted from Seattle -6.5 to -4.5 recently, it’s warranted given the Seahawks’ injuries, including the continued absence of edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu (MCL sprain).

Remember that the look-ahead line favored the Dolphins by two points. Per my numbers, the initial alteration wasn’t warranted even without Tua Tagovailoa (concussion). Mike McDaniel will presumably devise a clock-churning script with extra prep time.

This sets up De’Von Achane and a short-passing attack to keep this matchup close. Good luck with the remainder of your best bets for NFL Week 3!