NFL Week 3 Best Bets, Picks, & Odds: Favorites, Underdogs, and Value Spots

Week 3 action in the NFL is officially underway, and an exciting Sunday slate will be fascinating to watch unfold. We’re at that point in the season where every team has two data points. While that’s not quite enough to fully know who a team is, it’s enough to start forming real opinions and making sharper decisions based on what we’ve seen so far. Oddsmakers are also adjusting to early-season trends, and sometimes they even over-adjust, which creates opportunity.

That makes Week 3 one of the best times to find edges and capitalize before the market fully corrects itself.

This slate in particular offers several real chances to come out ahead. A few teams remain undervalued through two games, while others might be getting more credit than they deserve. Layer in the injury factor, home-field advantage, and other situational elements, and it’s clear there’s value to be found.

With that in mind, here are the best bets for Week 3 of NFL action and where the lines provide an edge today.

Dallas Cowboys ML (-115) vs Chicago Bears

This is an interesting contest because it’s Matt Eberflus’ first game against his former team. Things obviously didn’t end the way either side wanted, which is why he’s no longer in Chicago as head coach and is now the defensive coordinator for the Cowboys. This one’s an afternoon game in Chicago, and it’s tough to get a real read on Dallas so far. The Cowboys actually looked better in their Week 1 loss to the Eagles than in their Week 2 win over the Giants.

Eberflus’ defense has given up a lot of chunk plays, especially against New York. Caleb Williams hasn’t had the best season to this point, but he does have legitimate wide receiver weapons who could have big games against this Cowboys secondary. On the flip side, the Bears’ defense is even less reliable, giving up 52 points to the Lions and 27 to the Vikings in back-to-back weeks. And now they’re missing key multiple key cornerbacks with injuries, meaning CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens could have huge games.

Even on the road, I like the Cowboys to come out on top.

Green Bay Packers -7.5 (-105) vs Cleveland Browns

This one feels fairly easy. The Packers look like the best team in the NFL right now. They’re 2-0 and have played two really good teams, opening with a dominant win over the Lions in Week 1 before beating the Commanders by nine in Week 2. That game wasn’t even as close as the score suggested.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has been overmatched. The Browns lost big to the Bengals in Week 1 and then got handled by the Ravens in Week 2. They haven’t shown they can hang with a team like Green Bay. Even with this one on the road, if the Packers play anywhere near their potential, they should have no trouble covering the 7.5-point spread.

If Green Bay can beat Detroit and Washington by eight, then Cleveland should be no problem.

Houston Texans ML (+110) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans are 0-2, but I think they’re being slept on. Their defense has actually been solid, allowing just 14 points in Week 1 and 20 in Week 2. The issue has been finding rhythm on offense. If Houston can manage two touchdowns and a couple of field goals, that’s probably enough to win this game, and the previous two for that matter.

This matchup is even more important because an 0-3 hole is brutal to climb out of. Since the schedule expanded to 17 games, no team has started 0-3 and still made the postseason. That desperation, paired with the fact that Jacksonville hasn’t exactly been sharp either, makes this a prime spot for an upset. With a few key players returning and the urgency cranked up, I like Houston’s chances to sneak out a win.

Again, if Houston can find the end zone twice, the data tells us the Texans will win this game.

Indianapolis Colts -4.5 (-105) vs Tennessee Titans

The Colts have been one of the bigger surprises early in the season, riding production from Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor. Maybe that run won’t last forever, but they don’t need it to in this spot. The Titans have lost both of their games by sizable margins, first by eight and then by 14. They haven’t shown they can keep things competitive into the fourth quarter.

Even if Indianapolis cools off some, it should still be able to handle Tennessee. The Colts’ balance and playmakers have been enough to get the job done so far, and against a Titans team that’s struggling on both sides of the ball, they should be able to cover the 4.5-point spread without much issue.

Despite being at home, it doesn’t feel likely that the Titans will keep this game within striking distance.