6 Best NFL Player Props For Week 2: James Conner Just Scores TDs

Written By Ian Hartitz on September 16, 2022
week 2 player props

Week 2 player props are here; it’s truly a great day to be great. Each week during the NFL season, I will be taking my fantasy football research, as lead fantasy analyst at Pro Football Focus, and applying it to NFL player prop betting markets.

What follows are my top-six Week 2 player props, bets I have wagered on myself. Click on the odds below to bet now or search for the best available odds across legal sportsbooks by using TheLines’ Prop Finder Tool.

Season record: 3-3

Elijah Moore to score a touchdown

Current best available odds:

Moore has now played three games with Joe Flacco:

  • Week 10, 2021: Flacco was subbed in late for Mike White, threw three passes and completed two of them to Moore for 40 yards and a touchdown.
  • Week 11, 2021: Moore impressively went 8-141-1 in a tough matchup against the Dolphins.
  • Week 1, 2022: Moore went 5-49-0 with a touchdown that was (rightfully) nullified due to offensive pass interference.

This week’s matchup in Cleveland shouldn’t be seen as a smash spot, but the secondary didn’t exactly shut down Robbie Anderson (5-102-1). The Browns are happy to move CB Denzel Ward all over the field, but Diontae Johnson (Week 17, 2021) is the only No. 1 receiver he’s actively shadowed under current defensive coordinator Joe Woods. Don’t expect this to change against a Jets offense that low-key has weapons all over the place.

Only the Raiders (76.8%) had a higher non-garbage time pass-play rate than the Jets (76.7%) in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Browns allowed -0.1 rushing yards before contact against the Panthers. Even if the Jets manage to keep things close and want to run the ball more, they might not have much of a choice in the matter against Myles Garrett and company.

I love these odds for a talented player who should have more than enough opportunities to find the end zone for the first time in 2022.

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Trey Lance over 8.5 rush attempts

Current best available odds: / ()

There were still plenty of examples of Lance looking the part of the next-big-thing at quarterback during his monsoon-induced down Week 1, and his rushing usage continues to be borderline erotic from a fantasy football standpoint. Overall, Lance has 44 rush attempts in four career extended appearances – good for a 17-game pace of 187 rush attempts. Note that Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback in NFL history to clear 150 rush attempts in a single season.

And then there’s the matter of weather in San Francisco. From the fine folks at Weather.com:

“A steady rain in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. High 69F. Winds SE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch.”

While Sunday might not get us any closer to finding out if Lance can efficiently lead an offense through the air, don’t be surprised if Kyle Shanahan continues to lean on his legs – especially with starting RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR) sidelined.

Lamar Jackson under 227.5 pass yards

Current best available odds: / ()

On the surface, Jackson’s 238-1-1 passing and 9-39-0 rushing lines against the Dolphins in Week 10 last season don’t stand out as the worst performance of his career, but the game demonstrated how things could go south when the 2019 MVP is unable to quickly find an open target against the blitz.

Jackson when blitzed 2021-2022:

  • PFF passing grade: 53.0 (34th among 39 qualified quarterbacks)
  • Big-time throw rate: 2.7% (No. 29)
  • Turnover-worthy play rate: 2.7% (No. 18)
  • Yards per attempt: 6.8 (No. 25)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 72% (No. 21)
  • QB rating: 77.8 (No. 30)

Nobody has blitzed more than the Dolphins (44%) since Week 1 of last season. Their 48.5% rate in Week 1 (No. 6) reinforces the idea that they’ll utilize a similar strategy against Jackson and company come Sunday afternoon. I expect Jackson and company to lean as much on the run as possible, and success through the air is hardly a guarantee.

Darrell Henderson over 83.5 rushing and receiving yards

Current best available odds: / ()

Henderson has now started 11 games for the Rams over the past two seasons. He’s posted the following snap rates:

  • Week 1, 2021: 94% snaps
  • Week 2, 2021: 68%
  • Week 4, 2021: 90%
  • Week 5, 2021: 66%
  • Week 6, 2021: 82%
  • Week 7, 2021: 88%
  • Week 8, 2021: 61%
  • Week 9, 2021: 60%
  • Week 10, 2021: 75%
  • Week 12, 2021: 81%
  • Week 1, 2022: 81%

Historically McVay has consistently featured a single workhorse back; don’t be surprised if Henderson’s stranglehold on this backfield remains firm in upcoming weeks. Henderson is a 10-point home favorite with the third-highest implied team total of the week; he should have more than enough opportunities to smash this combined line.

Rashaad Penny under 66.5 rushing and receiving yards

Current best available odds: / ()

Head coach Pete Carroll said Kenneth Walker (hernia) will play in Week 2. While Carroll is infamous for giving optimistic injury return dates that wind up being incorrect, this seems more of a sure thing than usual.

The returning Walker will inevitably eat into Rashaad Penny’s early-down work. Travis Homer figures to keep his pass-down role and DeeJay Dallas will be active every week for special teams purposes. This is objectively terrible for fantasy purposes, especially behind a Seahawks offensive line that averaged a mediocre 0.8 rush yards before contact in Week 1 (22nd).

Look for Penny to still lead the way in most counting stats; just realize he’s at risk of being game-scripted off the field during any given week. This certainly seems to be on the table for Sunday given the Seahawks’ status as nine-point road dogs ahead of their rainy Week 2 matchup in San Francisco..

James Conner to score a touchdown

Current best available odds:

Conner has scored 20 touchdowns in 17 games with the Cardinals. The results have been even better without Chase Edmonds involved:

  • Week 9, 2021: 21-96-2 rushing, 5-77-1 receiving, 77% snaps
  • Week 10, 2021: 10-39-1, 3-25-0, 82%
  • Week 11, 2021: 21-62-1, 5-37-0, 82%
  • Week 13, 2021: 20-75-0, 2-36-1, 91%
  • Week 14, 2021: 13-31-2, 9-94-0, 96%
  • Week 18, 2021: 15-52-1, 6-41-1, 61%
  • Week 1, 2022: 10-26-1, 5-29-0, 72%

Part of the reason why Conner has been such a goal line threat is because the Cardinals don’t use Kyler Murray on quarterback sneaks. Arizona has only asked Murray to attempt *one* quarterback sneak his entire career; backups Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler have combined for five in far more limited action during the same time span. This led to Cardinals running backs tying for fourth in total rush attempts inside the five-yard line from 2019 to 2021.

Cardinals-Raiders has the highest game total (51.5) of any matchup remaining in Week 2; I’ll happily take plus odds on the game’s primary touchdown scorer doing just that.

Best of luck betting Week 2 player props.

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