The Recency Report: NFL Week 1 Market Moves And Week 2 Lookahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on September 10, 2020 - Last Updated on September 16, 2020
NFL Week 2 lines spread lookahead

As the 2020 NFL season kicks off, bettors have been evaluating the current week’s games and betting lines with much anticipation. The Lines is here to provide you additional sports betting resources and information you can bet on. That includes advance lookahead lines for the following week’s NFL games and some of the storylines and betting situations to assist you in your pursuit of profit.

Week 2 storylines include:

  • How do AFC North division rivals Cleveland and Cincinnati stack up with Bengals rookie QB Joe Burrow making his primetime debut on Thursday Night Football?
  • Is new Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady going to pass the Buccaneers to victory over the Panthers in his home debut (with no fans in the stands)?
  • Will veteran QB and new Colts signal caller Philip Rivers be able to lead Indianapolis to victory over the Vikings in his home debut?
  • Is the Silver and Black ready for primetime in the Silver State when the Raiders break in new Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas for their home opener on Monday Night Football against the New Orleans Saints?

The Kansas City Chiefs were 6/1 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings Sportsbook heading into their convincing win over the Texans Thursday night. The Chiefs (28%) have taken the highest percentage of bets to win the Super Bowl and 17% of the total handle which is only behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20%) at current odds of 14/1.

Current NFL odds

 

How to use lookahead lines

We’ll be updating the NFL advance lines each week to allow you a sneak peak at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendencies for many bettors is to over-react to previous weeks’ scores and results. The lookahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential over-reaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams including power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion on certain teams. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations and stats that come to light as the season progresses.

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Week 1 market movement

Week 1 of the NFL season is unique in that the betting lines have been posted since May at select sportsbooks. Some notable line moves since the Week 1 lines were released in Las Vegas three months ago are noted. Current lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Las Vegas (-3) at Carolina – Opening line was PK, and this week the Raiders moved from -1.5 to -3. The Raiders are getting steamed up with William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich saying: “It’s probably headed to 3.5. There’s definitely a sharp influence. It’s a combination of sharps and the public. They all like the Raiders.” DraftKings Sportsbook has moved to -3.5.
  • Pittsburgh (-5.5) at NY Giants – Monday Night Football match-up with steam on the Steelers. DraftKings and FanDuel show the Steelers -5.5 while PointsBet is at -6. The Steelers opened -3, but without fans in the stands in New Jersey, the Giants’ home field edge has dwindled and bettors don’t believe in the G-men.
  • Tennessee (-2.5) at Denver – The other Monday night game and a major move to Tennessee now -2.5. The Titans were PK ’em Tuesday, but took more money when Broncos linebacker Von Miller suffered a severe ankle injury during indoor practice.
  • Chicago at Detroit (-2.5) – The Lions have also taken more money with a move from -1.5 to -2.5. The Bears have not won a season opener in six years, but Chicago is 4-0 against Detroit the last two years.

Week 2 lookahead lines

Week 2 includes six division games starting with Cincinnati at Cleveland on Thursday night, Sept. 17. Other AFC division duels include Buffalo at Miami, Jacksonville at Tennessee and Kansas City at the Los Angeles Chargers. NFC division matchups include Detroit at Green Bay and Carolina at Tampa Bay in the home opener for QB Tom Brady. The Monday night game is the home opener in Las Vegas for the Raiders against the New Orleans Saints at brand new Allegiant Stadium.

The Buffalo Bills open with back-to-back division games and are currently the favorite (+120) to win the AFC East. DraftKings liability on Buffalo is highest with the Bills accounting for 58% of the bets and 62% of the handle in division betting splits.

MatchupOpening lineClosing line
Cincinnati at ClevelandBrowns -7.5Browns -6
Atlanta at DallasCowboys -7Cowboys -3
Buffalo at MiamiBills -3Bills -5.5
Carolina at Tampa BayBuccaneers -8.5Buccaneers -7.5
Denver at PittsburghSteelers -5.5Steelers -6
Detroit at Green BayPackers -6Packers -7
Jacksonville at TennesseeTitans -10.5Titans -7
LA Rams at PhiladelphiaEagles -4Eagles -2
Minnesota at IndianapolisColts -3Colts -3.5
NY Giants at ChicagoBears -5Bears -4.5
San Francisco at NY Jets49ers -649ers -7
Washington at ArizonaCardinals -6.5Cardinals -7.5
Baltimore at HoustonRavens -5.5Ravens -7.5
Kansas City at LA ChargersChiefs -6.5Chiefs -8.5
New England at SeattleSeahawks -3.5Seahawks -4
New Orleans at Las VegasSaints -4.5Saints -4
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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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