The Recency Report: NFL Week 1 Market Moves And Week 2 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on September 10, 2019 - Last Updated on September 13, 2019
nfl look-ahead lines week 2

As the 2019 NFL season kicks off, bettors are evaluating Week 1 betting lines with much anticipation. TheLines is here to provide you additional sports betting resources and information you can bet on. That includes advance look-ahead lines for the following week’s NFL games and some of the storylines and betting situations to assist you in your pursuit of profit.

Some of the Week 2 storylines might include:

  • How will new Dolphins head coach Brian Flores game plan against the Patriots, who he worked for as a linebackers coach and defensive assist last year?
  • Are the Colts going to be okay without Andrew Luck as new quarterback Jacoby Brissett leads them in their second straight road game?
  • Will the Redskins rebound as an underdog in their home opener against bitter rival Dallas Cowboys?

The discussions, storylines and sports betting will ramp up following Week 1, which kicks off the NFL’s 100th anniversary season with a division duel Thursday night between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to previous weeks scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 1 market movement

Week 1 of the NFL season is unique in that the betting lines have been posted since early June at select sportsbooks in New Jersey. Here’s a look at the movement since the Week 1 lines were released at FanDuel Sportsbook.

GameOpenCurrent
GB at CHICHI -4CHI -3
ATL at MINMIN -4MIN -4
BAL at MIABAL -3.5BAL -6.5
BUF at NYJNYJ -3.5NYJ -2.5
CIN at SEASEA -7.5SEA -9.5
KC at JAXKC -4.5KC -3.5
LAR at CARLAR -3LAR -2.5
SF at TBTB -1.5TB -1
TEN at CLECLE -5CLE -5.5
WAS at PHIPHI -8PHI -10
IND at LACLAC -3.5LAC -6.5
DET at ARIARI -1DET -2.5
NYG at DALDAL -7DAL -7
PIT at NENE -6.5NE -5.5
HOU at NONO -7.5NO -6.5
DEN at OAKOAK -3DEN -2.5

Analysis:

  • Baltimore (-6.5) at Miami – The Ravens opened -3.5 and money has continued to flow on Baltimore as the Ravens are the mostly heavily bet team in ticket count Week 1.
  • Detroit (-2.5) at Arizona – Opening line was a pick’em, and the Lions are just behind the Ravens as the second most popular Week 1 play at the sportsbooks.
  • Indianapolis at LA Chargers (-6.5) – This is the biggest market move since the opening line of -3 was released. The retirement of Colts QB Andrew Luck caused the biggest market move and bettors have made the Chargers another popular play and bet in Week 1.
  • Denver (-2.5) at Oakland – The Raiders opened a 3-point home favorite on Monday night and are now a home underdog in their farewell season in Oakland. The line moved two points on the news that Antonio Brown faced a team suspension.

Week 2 look-ahead lines

GameFanDuel Opener
Tampa Bay at Carolina CAR -5.5
Indianapolis at Tennessee TEN -3
LA Chargers at DetroitLAC -3.5
Buffalo at NY GiantsBUF -2.5
Arizona at BaltimoreBAL -9.5
New England at MiamiNE -9.5
Dallas at Washington DAL -3.5
Jacksonville at HoustonHOU -3.5
Seattle at PittsburghPIT -4.5
San Francisco at CincinnatiSF -2.5
Minnesota at Green BayGB -2.5
Kansas City at Oakland KC -6.5
New Orleans at LA RamsLAR -2.5
Chicago at DenverCHI -1
Philadelphia at AtlantaATL -1
Cleveland at NY JetsCLE -3

Week 2 has some interesting games to look forward to, including the Thursday night division duel between Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Panthers (-5.5) are a home favorite, but that line could climb should Carolina upset the LA Rams in Week 1 as a 3-point home underdog. Likewise, a poor performance or loss by Tampa Bay (PK) at home in Week 1 against San Francisco will turn bettors away from believing in or betting on the Buccaneers.

Additional division games of interest include:

  • Indianapolis at Tennessee (-3) – Back to back road games for the Colts, who no longer have QB Andrew Luck to lead them, while Tennessee plays its home opener. The Colts swept the Titans last season, winning each game by more than 15 points including 33-17 at Tennessee in Week 17.
  • New England (-9.5) at Miami – The largest point spread in Week 2. The Dolphins play consecutive home games to start the season for new head coach Brian Flores, the former linebackers coach of the Patriots. The Dolphins scored one of the biggest upsets of the season late last year when their miracle 69-yard pass and lateral TD on the final play gave them a 34-33 win over the Patriots as a 9.5-point underdog.
  • Dallas (-3.5) at Washington – Early season feud between these two bitter rivals who split last year’s two games with Washington winning 20-17 as a home underdog.
  • Minnesota at Green Bay (-3.5) – The Packers will have extra rest and prep after opening the season Week 1 on Thursday at Chicago. The two teams played to a 29-29 tie last season in Week 2 at Green Bay.
  • Kansas City (-6.5) at Oakland – The Raiders will be off a Monday night home game against the Broncos in Week 1, and a loss to Denver would only mean more interest for Chiefs bettors. Kansas City won a shootout at Oakland last season 40-33 as a huge 14-point road favorite. Sharps will be looking towards the division home underdog.

There are seven projected home underdogs in Week 2, and that will provide savvy bettors an opportunity to take advantage of capable home teams and some solid situations.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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