Matt’s NFL Week 2 Bets & Staff Picks: Fact, Fiction, And Overreactions

This week we have to try and convince ourselves our priors weren’t complete trash. While I’m quicker than most to adjust and maybe even completely move off of my priors, NFL Week 2 bets are not the time for all that. We have to trust our offseason evaluations and convictions until it is no longer viable. There are extenuating circumstances, of course, with injuries to key players, cluster injuries to a unit, etc. But by and large, we must remain steadfast before opening our betting apps.

What Is Real, And What Is Fiction?

Here is my opinion on some important Week 1 developments before getting into my NFL Week 2 bets.

• Are the Saints actually good? (No.)  
• Are the Panthers the worst team in the NFL? (Maybe.) 
• Is Aaron Rodgers washed after the injury? (No, but the defense is something to watch to see if we were too high.) 
• Is Kirk Cousins washed after the injury? (Maybe, but my futures bets hold out hope.) 
• Is Joe Burrow washed after the injury? (No, but the offense has to have everyone up to be effective.) 
• Is Deshaun Watson washed? (My gut says yes, but we’ll definitely know by mid-season.) 
• Oh, the Chargers are good after all with Harbaugh. (No, they are not and won’t end up with more than seven wins.) 
• The Bears were overhyped and aren’t all that good. (Absolutely, I said it all offseason) 
• Sam Darnold might actually have some game. (Yes, he was in no-win situations his whole career and might finally be able to show he’s a player.) 

There are so many talking points coming out of Week 1, but we don’t have any data to actually back any of it up. We have thoughts. We have convictions. We have biases. But in order to continue to be successful bettors, we have to be able to process the things that are actually happening on the field and decide if our brains/emotions are deceiving us.

While I believe all the things in the parenthesis next to the bullets, I’m not blind. I’ve been able to make money doing this for a long time by putting the ego aside, admitting when I’m wrong, and making profitable adjustments. Give yourself a real assessment and make sure you’re doing the same.

One Of The Most Underrated Practices In Sports Betting

One thing I should have tried to drive home in the first article is that it’s not hard to make minor changes/commit to easy habits to help yourself in this betting journey. The easiest thing you can do costs no money and just a bit of your time and effort.

Start a spreadsheet.

I’ve had one for nearly two decades. Track your bets. Color code the spreadsheet. Spread bets one color. Prop bets another. Totals another. You can make new tabs for each week if you want to compare how you progressed/regressed throughout the season.

However you want to organize it, make it your own. Just track your action. Review it. Find your strengths and weaknesses. Plug the leaks or move away from them. If you’re really trying to make money betting sports, you really need to lean into what you do well and limit where you struggle. Having the data to review is a must. 

Matt Brown’s NFL Week 2 Bets

Giants at Commanders

Going back to the well with Malik Nabers longest reception bet. The Commanders might have (do have?) the worst defense in the NFL. Daniel Jones is terrible, but it’s not a high level skill to huck it up to a freak of nature wideout against a pitiful defense. I don’t think Jones goes for 400 or anything, but we just need one 22-yard pass against a defenst that has exactly one player that ranks inside the top 20 at their respective position. 

Seahawks at Patriots

There are going to be a lot of people trying to make the case for the Patriots this week. More power to them. I bet the Seahawks at -3 and feel great about it.

I still have the Patiots as one of the two or three worst teams in the NFL and a win against what will be the worst game the Bengals play all season doesn’t change that. 

Packers at Colts

I think betting the Packers will be one of the biggest “not as sharp as people think” plays of the week (month, maybe). Even TheLines.com staff has had some knockdown, drag-out debates over this topic before making our NFL Week 2 bets. Judah Fortgang is with me on betting the Colts, while Eli Hershkovich felt the line went too far at +3.5 when betting the Packers.

You’ll hear about the line “moving too far” based on a look-ahead line. Well, the thing about that angle is, you have to believe the lookahead line was right. I was not as high on the Packers entering the season as the market, so the lookahead to me was off by as much as two points.

Further, I’ve seen enough Malik Willis to know what we’re likely to get out of Malik Willis. His PFF grades in 2022 and 2023 were 51.9 and 45.9 respectively. Of the 81 quarterbacks that have played at least 100 plays in the NFL since 2021 (the year before Willis entered the league), Willis is:

• dead last in EPA/play
• 76th in Completion Percentage Over Expected
• 78th in Success Rate

You get the picture. Oh, and did I mention he’s been on the team for about 20 minutes? The Packers traded for Willis on August 26. This isn’t some unknown that might surprise me. This is a known that will disappoint. Yes, I bet the Colts, and as of Friday morning, some Indianapolis defensive injuries have moved it back down to -2.5, under the key number.

Rams at Cardinals

The injury situation for the Rams is borderline crippling. They lost Puka Nakua. The offensive line is decimated. Now, it looks like the secondary could be taking a hit as well.

I bet the Cardinals as dogs earlier in the week, but think this is shaping up as a good bet at anything under a FG.

Matthew Stafford is a wizard, and the defense has overperformed for over a year now, but you can only overcome so much adversity. 

NFL Survivor Week 2 Picks: Texans To Beat The Bears (Sunday Night Football Betting)

We have the full breakdown of the week for NFL Survivor Week 2 picks and an NFL Survivor pools podcast.

But I wanted to say I’ve decided to go ahead and put all the entries on the Texans. I’ll fade the massively popular picks in Ravens and Chargers and get a team I think I wanna go ahead and burn. The Texans schedule is hard, man. And while you may be ok using them in Week 6 on the road at Foxboro, I’ll be using the Ravens against the Commanders that week. Past that, the next time you’ll feel good about using them is Week 12 against the Titans. If I make it that far, I’ll deal with it them.

If the Bengals or another team busted you out of your Survivor pool in Week 1, TheLines.com is already taking sign-ups for a free-to-enter second chance Survivor contest, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook The winner will get $5000! 21+ to play. The contest begins in Week 4

Editor’s Note

THeLines.com Staff NFL Week 2 Bets