Eli’s NFL Week 2 Best Bets: Will Packers, Broncos Cover The Spread?

As the odds for NFL Week 2 near kick-off, I’ll break down price discovery before handicapping point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals in this piece while shopping for the best NFL promos. For one, the Packers vs. Colts matchup stands out compared to my betting model. My analysis of that game and Broncos vs. Steelers is below, with more best bets for NFL Week 2 later in the week.

Click any of the NFL betting odds below to place a bet. These sportsbook prices are the best available in your state.

NFL Week 2 Best Bets: packers +3.5 (to lose by three or fewer or win)

Some readers are likely unfamiliar with the aforementioned term, price discovery. This activity starts when bets are made on the opening spread or total. Early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks may follow the same script as operators considered “market makers.” They shifted their pricing because a competitor repositioned its own. Liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to reshape the odds at other sportsbooks.

Regarding the look-ahead line, the odds for the Packers against the Colts had Green Bay favored by 4.5 points. Nevertheless, since Jordan Love (sprained MCL) will likely miss this contest, the spread flipped to Indianapolis -3.5. I think this adjustment is an overreaction. Here’s why.

Drop-Off Between Love & Willis

Although Love was hurt on the Packers’ final drive, there is a large enough sample size to assess his statistical output versus the Eagles.

His EPA+CPOE composite rating ranks No. 23 among qualified quarterbacks in Week 1. Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, and Bo Nix finished closest behind him. There’s no doubting Love is an above-average sign-caller. However, he’s yet to prove that he’s worth a full eight points to the spread.

Even with journeyman Malik Willis under center, my numbers make the line closer to Colts -1/-1.5. If you recall, Willis earned the nod in a similar situation on Nov. 6, 2022, receiving the start for the injured Ryan Tannehill against the Chiefs. Throughout the week, the spread rose from Chiefs -10.5 to -14.

While that alteration was justified, the script is identical to this one. Tennessee relied on workhorse Derrick Henry en route to covering against the defending Super Bowl champs.

Like then-Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, the Packers’ Matt LaFleur flourishes in these spots, going 14-3 (82.3%) ATS as an underdog of three points or more. Expect LaFleur to rely heavily on Josh Jacobs and the rest of Green Bay’s backfield against a defense that allowed the fifth-most EPA per carry in Week 1.

Moreover, Indianapolis’ defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, depends on zone coverage, employing it the most among any unit over the last two seasons. Bradley has primarily used this scheme throughout his career, but the recent splits are a byproduct of an exploitable secondary.

With Colts cornerback JuJu Brents placed on injured reserve, a weaker group of DBs and a consistent structure should only help Willis.

Evaluating Anthony Richardson

Colts bettors should admit they were fortunate to cover against the Texans, yet the betting market doesn’t completely reflect that. Despite Richardson showing out on highlight reels, his expected completion percentage (61.1%) was the lowest among qualified starters.

The second-year QB still has much to improve before his sixth career start. I’m confident that Jeff Hafley, the former Boston College head coach-turned-Packers defensive coordinator, will confuse Richardson with a mix of man and zone coverage via his top-10 secondary, especially with two extra prep days.

Final Thoughts

I would bet the Packers down to +3 (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook, with the line at the key number of a field goal. Jacobs may run wild with the recent news of Colts defensive end DeForest Buckner (back) possibly missing this game.

The last time Buckner failed to suit up (Oct. 2022), the aforementioned Henry accumulated 5.2 yards per carry versus a much more reliable unit.

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NFL Week 2 Best Bets: broncos +3 (to lose by two or fewer or win)

Sell-High On Steelers

Despite Denver’s backdoor cover in Seattle, Nix’s struggles shouldn’t go unnoticed. The rookie was the most pressured QB in Week 1, but he still finished in the top 10 of time to throw. When given a clean pocket, he compiled the third-fewest yards per attempt (YPA).

Additionally, Nix tallied three turnover-worthy plays. Thus, the Broncos’ offensive line (20th-ranked pass-block win rate) didn’t perform nearly as poorly as the initial statistic suggests. With Pittsburgh’s elite defensive line on deck, that’s a positive.

His ability to deliver quick hitters on the run in Sean Payton’s West Coast offense also sets him up well. In the season opener, the Steelers greatly benefited from an immobile Kirk Cousins, who took the field for the first time since tearing his ACL in Oct. 2023. Atlanta telegraphed its script for T.J. Watt and Co. with zero designed runs via 22 shotgun snaps. Pittsburgh even won the turnover battle (3-0), a seemingly unpredictable category, in the 18-10 victory.

Conversely, Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph should continue employing creative pre-snap looks to make Justin Fields uncomfortable. Denver was tied for the highest blitz rate (42.9%) in Week 1 and compiled the fourth-highest pass-rush win rate in the process.

The Steelers’ banged-up offensive line was average at best versus the Falcons’ defensive front, which rarely applied pressure.

A repeat showing is unlikely, as Denver linebackers Baron Browning and the budding Jonathon Cooper are well-positioned to wreak havoc.

Final Thoughts

At most shops, the odds have barely moved from the look-ahead line. On Wednesday afternoon, I bet on Broncos +3 (-120) at Fanatics Sportsbook. If you can’t find these odds and prefer not to live bet on this game, consider using Denver in a teaser.

Additional NFL Week 2 Best Bets: Browns +3 (To Lose By Two Or Fewer Or Win)

When this spread surged upward from the look-ahead line of Jags -2, I strongly contemplated placing a bet on Cleveland.

On Wednesday, a surge in Browns money removed the hook (+3.5) from the odds board. Yet, my numbers still show value on the dog, particularly after Jacksonville CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring) was placed on IR on Thursday morning.

For bettors living under a rock, Deshaun Watson generated the fourth-fewest EPA per dropback in Week 1 when given a clean pocket or faced with pressure. In other words, he was abysmal. But Watson also took on the Cowboys’ zone-heavy defense — the antithesis of the Jags’ scheme.

Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen ran the league’s highest percentage of Cover 1 (man coverage) in Week 1. Minus Campbell, their defensive backfield is bound to allow explosive plays through the air, even versus Watson. If the Browns’ pass protection gets notable pieces back, like Jack Conklin, look for Watson to manufacture some semblance of success.

On the flip side, Cleveland’s defense was put in an unfavorable position against Dallas. The offense turned the ball over three times on its side of the field. Watson’s improved efficiency would go a long way toward the Browns’ elite unit hindering Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville’s passing attack.

Jacksonville ranks league average in yards per play (YPP), yet Cleveland’s defense provides a more strenuous test than what Lawrence dealt with in the opener against Miami.