Underdog NFL Picks For Today: Week 18 Fantasy Draft & DFS Pick Em Strategy

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Written By Jeffrey Schreiber | Last Updated
underdog nfl picks

Underdog Pick Em contests allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts. The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional Pick Em you add to your entry. Underdog entries are limited to five Pick Ems. DFS contests featuring fantasy football drafts are also available. Let’s look at some Underdog NFL picks on Sunday’s Week 18 slate. You can compare Underdog lines to odds at sports betting sites by checking out TheLines.com’s Prop Finder Tool.

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underdog NFL Picks to consider For Week 18 Sunday Slate

Packers QB Jordan Love
Underdog Line: Higher 250.5 Passing Yards
Best Line At Sportsbooks: /

If we pick a player to go higher on his line in Week 18, we must be sure there is what to play for in this game. Green Bay controls their destiny, so they will definitely go all-out in this contest. There is no way they aren’t entirely motivated for this spot.

Love stayed hot on Sunday night, completing 72.7% of his passes for three touchdowns. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven of his past eight games and is now third in the NFL with 30 touchdown passes.

This number of passing yards seems low because Love is slated to face a rather stingy Chicago pass defense. Over their past 11 games, the Bears have allowed a 63.1% completion rate (13th) and 6.0 yards per pass attempt (second). However, a critical injury in this Bear’s secondary can lighten things up tremendously for Love. PFF’s No. 1 graded CB this season is Jaylon Johnson. It’s looking more and more likely that he will be forced to sit in this game due to injury. If he were to sit, I like the chances of Love surpassing 250.5 passing yards, which he has done in six of his last eight games.

Cowboys RB Tony Pollard
Underdog Line: Lower 60.5 Rushing Yards
Best Line At Sportsbooks: /

It’s fair to say that Pollard has been one of the most disappointing RBs in football this year. Although the Cowboys are 13+ point favorites in this game, one can’t expect a productive game from Pollard here. In fact, Pollard hasn’t rushed for more than 59 yards in four straight contests. He is averaging just above three yards a carry over his last two games.

Now factor in that there is at least a chance he gets benched early. The Cowboys and Eagles play simultaneously on Sunday, so expect Dallas to go all-out to secure the division. If the Cowboys have a big lead late (or the Eagles are getting blown out), they could pull some starters to prepare for the playoffs. It is worth noting that they are 13-point favorites against the Commanders, meaning this scenario can easily play out.

Seahawks QB Geno Smith
Underdog Line: Higher 245.5 Passing Yards
Best Line At Sportsbooks: /

Smith showcased extreme efficiency in the Seahawk’s Week 7 encounter with the Cardinals, completing 75% of his passes for an average of 9.1 yards per attempt. In that game, the Cardinals’ offense was stymied, culminating in a mere 10 points and totaling just 249 yards. In the second half of the game, Smith attempted only nine passes.

Arizona was without key players Kyler Murray and James Conner in that game, while Zach Ertz was the primary tight end for Arizona. The presence of Murray, Conner, and Trey McBride this season has been a significant boom to Arizona’s offensive output. Arizona is averaging 5.6 yards per play with these players on the field. This is a noteworthy improvement over the 4.2 yards per play achieved in their absence. Looking into this stat is a difference between a team ranked eighth in the NFL in yards per play and one that is 31st. With the expected return of these key players for the Cardinals in this game, one should anticipate Arizona’s chances of keeping this game close. Smith’s potential for elevated passing volume makes sense.

Arizona is 28th in pressure rate this season. That is big here because Smith has been one of the most sensitive quarterbacks to pressure this season. When kept clean, Smith has completed 72.9% of his passes (10th) for 8.4 Y/A (fourth). When Arizona has not pressured the opposing passer, they are allowing a 75.0% completion rate (30th), and 8.1 Y/A (27th).

Best of luck with your Week 18 Underdog NFL picks.

Underdog Pick em Contest tips

Higher/Lower

Pick whether a player’s final stats will be higher or lower than their projection. Get all of your picks right, and you win. You have to make at least two picks from players on different teams, and you can’t pick the same player more than once.

Insurance

Pick Em entries of three or more picks can be insured at a reduced multiplier and will pay out, even with one incorrect pick. Non-insured entries have higher multipliers and payouts but require all picks to be correct.

Special picks

Special picks are just that! We’ve adjusted a player’s projection to make your choice easier. They’re indicated with a star icon.

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