Saturday NFL Week 18 Odds: Tennessee Titans At Jacksonville Jaguars Preview

Written By Brett Gibbons on January 6, 2023
Titans Jaguars Odds Week 18

The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) host the Tennessee Titans (7-9) in a winner-take-all battle for the AFC South and a playoff spot. The game kicks Saturday night at 8:15 p.m. on ESPN from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. Titans at Jaguars odds show Jacksonville as a favorite and the Titans are on the moneyline. The over/under currently sits at points,

In this article we break down everything you need to know before betting the Titans at Jaguars odds, props, and injuries. We’ll also look at team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Titans At Jaguars Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

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Titans At Jaguars Player Props

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Titans At Jaguars Betting News & Angles

Titans At Jaguars Weather

Dry conditions (clear sky) and 5 mph winds are expected at TIAA Bank Field on Saturday (as of 12:12 PM on January 6), with a high temperature of 58 degrees Fahrenheit.

Jaguars Vs. Titans Injury Report

Jacksonville Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Trevor LawrenceQBToeQuestionable65.4
Brandon ScherffOGAbdomenQuestionable65.0
Travon WalkerOLBAnkleQuestionable55.6
Ross MatiscikLSBackQuestionable7.7

Tennessee Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Amani HookerFSKneeQuestionable65.6
Andrew AdamsSSKneeOut63.5
Kristian FultonCBGroinQuestionable60.8
Dylan ColeLBAnkleQuestionable50.9
Treylon BurksWRGroinQuestionable36.1
Davontae HarrisDBHamstringOut10.0

Jaguars Offense Vs. Titans Defense

Jaguars OffenseStats (Rank)Titans Defense
24.0 (11)Points/Gm21.2 (15)
0.4 (1)Points/Play0.3 (1)
365.8 (8)Yards/Gm359.8 (25)
234.8 (10)Pass Yards/Gm279.3 (32)
131.1 (10)Rush Yards/Gm80.5 (2)
5.7 (8)Yards/Play5.5 (18)
6.7 (12)Yards/Pass7.0 (25)
4.8 (6)Yards/Rush3.4 (1)
41.7% (11)3rd Down %33.6% (3)
55.4% (14)Red Zone %57.4% (21)
21 (15)Turnovers19 (20)
27 (5)Sacks38 (15)

Titans Offense Vs. Jaguars Defense

Titans OffenseStats (Rank)Jaguars Defense
17.6 (28)Points/Gm20.9 (12)
0.3 (17)Points/Play0.3 (1)
295.8 (30)Yards/Gm355.9 (23)
171.8 (30)Pass Yards/Gm243.1 (28)
124.0 (15)Rush Yards/Gm112.8 (11)
5.1 (23)Yards/Play5.5 (18)
6.4 (17)Yards/Pass6.8 (21)
4.4 (16)Yards/Rush4.2 (7)
36.6% (23)3rd Down %43.8% (29)
65.9% (6)Red Zone %60.8% (23)
21 (15)Turnovers25 (5)
45 (25)Sacks31 (28)

Titans At Jaguars Betting Insights

Why The Jaguars Can Cover The Spread

While momentum and trajectory isn’t everything in the NFL, the Jaguars are a team that’s improved all season long while the Titans are one going the wrong direction. Trevor Lawrence has thrown at least three touchdowns in three of his last six games while the Titans are panning down the QB depth chart with Josh Dobbs. Further, workhorse back Derrick Henry had to sit last week with an injury.

On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville is fourth in pressure rate this season while Tennessee is 30th in pressure allowed. When facing pressure this year, Dobbs completes just 35.3% of his passes with no touchdowns and an interception. The Jags defense counters well against the run, allowing the seventh-fewest yards per carry (4.2).

Getting Jacksonville at home under a touchdown is an advantageous number to bettors, since 15% of NFL games end with a seven-point differential (known as the “push rate”).

Why The Titans Can Cover The Spread

To be transparent: there’s not a ton of confidence in Tennessee to cover this game. The Titans dropped their first meeting at home against the Jaguars, but won the previous four before that. Mike Vrabel has been one of the best coaches in the NFL over the last few years, but he no longer has a major coaching advantage against Doug Pederson.

The Titans don’t possess an advantage at quarterback nor on defense. Their offense is pitiful without any real threats at receiver, scoring the third-fewest points in the league (13.7 per game) over the last three games.

Lawrence doesn’t perform well when pressured (four touchdowns, five interceptions, a worse PFF grade under pressure than Dobbs), but Jacksonville is a top-10 team allowing pressure on the year. If Tennessee can get to Lawrence, their odds of covering increase significantly.

Reasons To Bet The Over

Some numbers under 40 have popped recently, but for good reason. The Titans cannot score, meaning for an over to hit, the Jags will have to do most of the legwork. Over the last three games, they’re scoring the fourth-most points in the NFL (30 per game) against some capable defenses (Jets, Cowboys).

The last time these teams played, they combined for 58 points. However, a much healthier Ryan Tannehill started that game.

Reasons To Bet The Under

As noted above, the Titans allow a ton of pressure, the Jags generate a ton of pressure, and Dobbs performs extremely poorly under said pressure. A litany of turnovers generally turn games into higher-scoring affairs, but neither QB is terribly turnover prone. The Titans defense is excellent on third downs, allowing the third-lowest conversion rate in the NFL.

The inability for each QB under pressure coupled with sturdy third-down defense is a nice recipe for the under, low as that total already is.

Titans At Jaguars Props: Matchups To Watch For

Evan Engram Vs. Titans Defense: Last time out, Engram found new life, hauling in 11 receptions for 162 yards and two touchdowns. Tennessee allows the most targets and yards to tight ends on the season. In three of his last four outings, Engram logged at least seven receptions, going over 100 yards twice, but only scoring those two touchdowns.

Following up a one-reception, 16-yard outing where the Jaguars passing game wasn’t needed, Engram’s receiving total might get bumped down. He’s found the trust of Lawrence, so playing over might be the move here.

Josh Dobbs Vs. Jaguars Pass Rush: Among 60 qualifying QBs this season (min. 15 dropbacks), Dobbs has the ninth-worst completion rate against pressure, just 35.3%. On 19 dropbacks under pressure, albeit in limited time, he has six completions, two sacks, and an interception thrown. Jacksonville generates the fourth-most pressure in the NFL.

First overall pick Trevon Walker is questionable for the game, but is unquestionably a difference maker. He has 33 pressures on the season and recorded his highest pass rushing grade against the Titans in Week 14, per PFF.

Final Thoughts

This game might be the only one where we get a full effort and full game performance from both teams. It’s one of the isolated few that actually makes a difference since mostly every division is secure and no head-to-head matchups directly determine a playoff spot. (Note: If Seattle loses Sunday, the Packers-Lions game becomes a win-and-in.)

These are two teams headed in totally opposite directions, with a season from hell truly unfurling in Nashville. Dobbs at QB is more assuring than rookie Malik Willis, but only in the way that being punched in the ribs is more assuring than being punched in the nose.

Despite this being the game with the highest direct stakes, it may also be one of the toughest to watch. I likely wouldn’t bet Jacksonville going away or the over, although both plays might be the correct ones.

Best of luck betting the Titans at Jaguars odds in this game.

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons