NFL Week 18 Implied Team Totals: Low Totals, Questionable Motivation

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on January 9, 2022
NFL Week 18 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 18 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 18 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Jan. 4, rounded to the nearest whole number. Keep in mind that due to the COVID-19 outbreaks and uncertainty they cause, the market has been a little slower than usual to set lines this week.

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NFL Week 18 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Bills30JetsHome-16.543.5
Colts30JaguarsAway-15.544.5
Chiefs27BroncosAway-1044
Cardinals27SeahawksHome-6.548
Titans27TexansAway-10.543
Chargers26RaidersAway-2.549.5
Cowboys25EaglesAway-742.5
Buccaneers25PanthersHome-841.5
Patriots24DolphinsAway-740
Rams2449ersHome-444.5
Ravens24SteelersHome-5.542
Vikings24BearsHome-2.544.5
Raiders24ChargersHome2.549.5
Packers23LionsAway-2.543
Saints23FalconsAway-4.540.5
Bengals22BrownsAway-341
Football Team22GiantsAway-6.538
Seahawks21CardinalsAway6.548
Bears21VikingsAway2.544.5
49ers20RamsAway444.5
Lions20PackersHome2.543
Browns19BengalsHome341
Eagles18CowboysHome742.5
Steelers18RavensAway5.542
Falcons18SaintsHome4.540.5
Broncos17ChiefsHome1044
Dolphins17PatriotsHome740
Panthers17BuccaneersAway841.5
Texans17TitansHome10.543
Giants16Football TeamHome6.538
Jaguars14ColtsHome15.544.5
Jets14BillsAway16.543.5

Highest NFL Week 18 implied team totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Bills3030-110-110
Colts3030-110-110
Cardinals2727.5-104-118
Titans2727-112-108
Chiefs2727.5-106-116

Buffalo Bills

The Bills had an oddly inept offensive performance against the Falcons in Week 17. Despite scoring 29 points, they had just 4.9 YPP and a really poor 4.4 through the air. Josh Allen threw three INTs.

The week before, Allen looked fantastic in eviscerating the Patriots. So, it’s a little tough to pin down this team’s current true talent level on offense.

Last time these teams played, though, the Bills scored 45 points and would have probably topped 50 had the game been competitive.

One interesting wrinkle about this huge team total is that the Bills might pack it in a little early here as far as leaving their starters in the game. If they gain a pretty big lead and it’s clear they’ll cruise to a win, it would be prudent to let the backups finish out the game a bit earlier than normal.

You might think that would depress their scoring potential, but Mitch Trubisky can probably lead some scoring drives here against the pitiful Jets defense. That unit ranks last in the league by EPA/play allowed.

Indianapolis Colts

This one features the clashes of some statistical trends and data.

For instance, pretty much nobody has offered less resistance than the Jaguars this season. The normally low-octane Patriots passing game posted 8.5 YPA against them and rampaged to 50 points.

Yet, the Colts seem less able to exploit this weakness than most right now. Carson Wentz has played dreadfully the past few weeks. In his latest stinker, he managed just 148 passing yards, with 45 of them (and his only TD) coming on a jump ball that should have been intercepted by two different players, except they ran into each other in mid-air trying to snag the can of corn.

If the Colts pound away with Jonathan Taylor, they can certainly have success. The Jags are better against the run than the pass, but they still only rank 21st according to Football Outsiders.

Whether the Colts can hit this number, then, probably depends on whether Taylor rips off any long TDs or just moves the chains and churns the clock.

Tennessee Titans

This number is quite the departure from the Titans‘ typical scoring output since losing Derrick Henry for what looks like the rest of the regular season at this point. Since the injury, the Titans have averaged 21.6 points per game.

The only times the Titans have reached 27 points without Henry were against the Rams and this past weekend against the Dolphins. The Rams game featured a defensive touchdown and another two-yard drive off an interception.

Like the Colts, they get a seeming sad sack opponent here in the Texans. The Texans do actually sport a respectable defense, though, checking in at 18th in DVOA.

Davis Mills has only thrown two picks in four games since taking back over as the starter. If he can avoid giving the ball away to the opportunistic Titans defense, Tennessee probably won’t clear this team total.

Lowest NFL Week 18 implied team totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Giants1615.5-116-106
Jets1413-110-110
Jaguars1414-106-116

New York Giants

Who knew Daniel Jones was the most important QB in the league?

Nobody in the NFL is playing worse offense than the New York Giants. And it’s hard to point to anything other than the loss of Jones as to what has caused the bottom to completely drop out here. Under Jones, they may not have lit the world on fire, but they were playing respectable NFL football.

Without him, they’ve completely collapsed, scoring an average of 9.8 points per game. Even that overstates things as it includes 14 completely meaningless fourth-quarter points against the Chargers.

Most damning, they didn’t even try to score against the Bears. They passed just 11 times in a game they trailed from literally 18 seconds in. They won’t come near covering this team total with a similar attitude in Week 18.

New York Jets

The Giants’ roommates, on the other hand, actually played palatable football for the third week running. The Jets potentially came within a rookie mistake by Zach Wilson of pulling a big upset over the Bucs.

Granted, these Bucs have gotten wrecked by injuries on both sides of the ball, but this still counts as progress.

On the one hand, this is a very low number to clear. Even the Jets have only failed to reach 14 once in the past 10 games. On the other, targeting Braxton Berrios 12 times per game does not seem like a sustainable strategy for productive offense. The loss of Michael Carter to a concussion hurts as he gives the team sorely needed big play potential.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

Philadelphia Eagles

Like many teams entering Week 18, the Eagles appear to have very little for which to play. They have clinched the playoffs but can’t win the division, so they’ll likely face either the Bucs, Rams or Cowboys on the road.

There doesn’t appear to be an especially good reason to angle to face one of these teams over the others. Plus, the Eagles just came down with a nasty rash of COVID-19 cases.

The line, which opened Cowboys -3.5, has reached . All signs point to the market expecting minimal effort by the Eagles in this essentially meaningless game.

If that’s the case, 18 looks like a rather high team total against the top defense by both DVOA and EPA/play.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers also enter Week 18 with questionable motivation to do anything besides show up for their game checks. They have clinched the top seed and play a completely meaningless game against the Lions.

Question is, will they act accordingly? Coach Matt LaFleur is on the record early this week saying he plans to play his starters at least part of the game.

That could obviously change. If he doesn’t come to his senses, however, this line could look laughably low if Aaron Rodgers takes the field against the pathetic Lions. Russell Wilson, in the worst form of his career, just dropped 51 on these guys.

Even half a game of the Packers starters could see them post 20 points or so, meaning the backups would only need a score or two to bring home the team total over.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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