The Recency Report: NFL Week 16 Market Moves And Week 17 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on December 20, 2019

Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing week’s games on the schedule.

In this article, we also take a look at the current lines compared to the opening odds at FanDuel from the previous week.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to the previous week’s scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 16 market movement

GameOpenCurrent
LA Rams at San FranciscoSF -6SF -6.5
Buffalo at New EnglandNE -6.5NE -6.5
Houston at Tampa BayHOU -1HOU -3
Detroit at DenverDEN -6.5DEN -6.5
Oakland at LA ChargersLAC -6.5LAC -5.5
Jacksonville at AtlantaATL -6.5ATL -7
New Orleans at TennesseeNO -1NO -2.5
NY Giants at WashingtonWAS -3WAS -2.5
Pittsburgh at NY JetsPIT -2.5PIT -3
Cincinnati at MiamiMIA -2.5CIN -1
Carolina at IndianapolisIND -6IND -6.5
Baltimore at ClevelandBAL -6.5BAL -10
Dallas at PhiladelphiaDAL -1DAL -1.5
Arizona at SeattleSEA -9.5SEA -9.5
Kansas City at ChicagoKC -3.5KC -6
Green Bay at MinnesotaMIN -4MIN -5.5

Market Game of the Week: The Monday night matchup in Minneapolis is seeing a major move on the Vikings (10-4), who are up to a 5.5-point favorite over the Packers (11-3) and a little extra vig (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook. It appears some sportsbooks may hit -6 by Monday, as the Vikings try to take down the Packers without star running back Dalvin Cook. He injured his shoulder in last week’s win against the Chargers and may miss the final two games to get healthy for the playoffs.

Minnesota needs to beat Green Bay and then Chicago at home in Week 17 and have the Packers lose at Detroit for the Vikings to win the NFC North and secure an opening round home game in the playoffs. The Vikings were a four-point favorite on the look ahead lines last week, and Minnesota is not only 6-0 and the only undefeated team at home, but also averaging 29 points per game at home to rank No. 2 in the league.

The Vikings’ scoring differential is +119 this season while the Packers is +47. Both sharp and public money is supporting the Vikings in what will likely be the most bet game of the week with the biggest handle by Monday for the NFC North first-place showdown.

NFL Week 17 look-ahead lines

GameFanDuel Spread
Titans at TexansHOU -1.5
Browns at BengalsCLE -3
Bears at VikingsMIN -7
Colts at JaguarsJAX -1.5
Falcons at BuccaneersTB -1.5
Redskins at CowboysDAL -8.5
Saints at Panthers
NO -10.5
Eagles at GiantsPHI -4.5
Steelers at RavensBAL -3
Jets at BillsBUF -4.5
Dolphins at PatriotsNE -14.5
Packers at LionsGB -8.5
Chargers at ChiefsKC -6.5
Cardinals at RamsLAR -7.5
49ers at Seahawks SF -1
Raiders at BroncosDEN -4.5

Week 17 is annually a tricky one as some teams have secured their playoff spot and seeding position. Posted betting lines may be delayed by some sportsbooks including FanDuel and DraftKings as teams announce starters status and injuries.

However, one game will be among the biggest this season as San Francisco (11-3) travels to Seattle (11-3) to settle not only the NFC West winner, but also which team gets a first round by in the playoffs and potentially the No. 1 seed pending results from Week 16. The Seahawks won the first meeting 27-24 on a last-second field goal in overtime. There were a total of seven turnovers in the contest that saw both offenses struggle in five full quarters of football with Seattle gaining 336 yards at 4.6 yards per play.

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. Here are the highest projected point spreads from the summer for Week 17 (you’ll notice some major adjustments):

  • Buffalo at New England (-13): Current line Patriots -6.5
  • Arizona at Seattle (-12): Current line Seahawks -9.5
  • Oakland at LA Chargers (-9): Current line Chargers -7
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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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