The Recency Report: NFL Week 17 Market Moves

Written By FairwayJay on December 27, 2019

Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing week’s games on the schedule.

With no look-ahead lines in the final week of the regular season, we focus on the market moves and the current lines compared to the opening odds at FanDuel from the previous week.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to the previous week’s scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

NFL Week 17 market movement

Week 17 is annually a tricky one as some teams have secured their playoff spot and seeding position. That includes the No. 1 AFC seed Baltimore Ravens and league MVP Lamar Jackson. Thus, we see some major market moves from last week’s look-ahead lines based on Week 16 results and what teams are playing for in Week 17. Check out all the NFL playoff scenarios and market moves before are wagering on Week 17 games.

Tennessee at HoustonHOU -1.5TEN -3.5
Cleveland at CincinnatiCLE -3CLE -2.5
Chicago at MinnesotaMIN -7MIN -1
Indianapolis at JacksonvilleJAX -1.5IND -3.5
Atlanta at Tampa BayTB -1.5TB -1
Washington at DallasDAL -8.5DAL -11
New Orleans at CarolinaNO -10.5NO -13
Philadelphia at New York GiantsPHI -4.5PHI -4.5
Pittsburgh at BaltimoreBAL -3PIT -2.5
New York Jets at BuffaloBUF -4.5BUF -1.5
Miami at New EnglandNE -14.5NE -16
Green Bay at DetroitGB -8.5GB -12.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas CityKC -6.5KC -9
Arizona at Los Angeles RamsLAR -7.5LAR -4.5
San Francisco at SeattleSF -1SF -3.5
Oakland at Denver DEN -4.5DEN -3.5
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San Francisco at Seattle

The 49ers (12-3) and Seahawks (11-4) will decide the NFC West champion in the prime time Sunday night game in Seattle. The Seahawks won 27-24 in overtime at San Francisco in Week 10, so a Seahawks win over the 49ers gives Seattle a season sweep and the tiebreaker over San Francisco.

So much playoff positioning at stake and bettors are riding the 49ers, up from -1 to -3.5 at both FanDuel and DraftKings following the Seahawks’ poor showing in defeat last week. A 49ers win secures the division title and No. 1 seed with home field throughout the NFC playoffs. The Seahawks would be a wild card and the No. 5 seed if they lose. But they can earn the NFC West title with a victory and a No. 2 playoff seed if Green Bay loses at Detroit.

Also, a No. 1 seed is still a possibility for Seattle with a win and both a Green Bay loss and New Orleans loss. Weather calls for mid-40s temperatures at kickoff with very light winds and overcast skies for this huge NFC West title game.

Tennessee at Houston

The Texans (10-5) have won the AFC South and will be the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs if Kansas City beats the LA Chargers Sunday. Houston is expected to rest more starters this week, thus the line has adjusted from the Texans -1.5 on last week’s look-ahead line to the Titans now a 3.5-point road favorite. That’s also because Tennessee (8-7) can secure the No. 6 playoff seed with a win over the Texans. The Titans will also make the playoffs if they lose and both the Steelers and Colts lose (or Indianapolis tie). Houston has won four AFC South division titles Since Bill O’Brien was hired in 2014, and the Texans are 17-1 when they don’t turn the ball over, including 3-0 this season.

Chicago at Minnesota

The Vikings (10-5) were beaten soundly by the Packers Monday night 23-10 in Week 16. Minnesota is locked in as the No. 6 playoff seed in the NFC, and bettors anticipate the Vikings resting more players as the line has moved from Vikings -7 to Vikings -1. However, head coach Mike Zimmer has not indicated he’ll be resting many starters yet other than injured RBs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison and LB Eric Kendricks. The Bears may also rest some players to look at other players according to coach Matt Nagy.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Both the Colts (7-8) and Jaguars (5-10) are out of the playoffs. But Indianapolis has gone from a 1.5-point underdog to a 3.5-point favorite with the Jaguars losing six of their last seven games with all losses by double-digits.

Washington at Dallas

The Cowboys (7-8) blew their opportunity to hold the upper hand in the NFC East in last week’s loss at Philadelphia. The Cowboys need to beat the Redskins (3-12), and bettors believe it will be a blowout, with Dallas up from an 8.5-point favorite to -11. Dallas would also need the Eagles (8-7) to lose to the NY Giants (4-11), but that line has remained steady at Philadelphia -4.5. An Eagles win secures the NFC East title and a playoff spot with a home game next week in Philadelphia.

Carolina at New Orleans

The Saints are the NFC South champions and currently the No. 3 seed in the upcoming playoffs. The line has pushed up to Saints -13 from last week’s -10.5 look ahead line. The Saints can get the overall No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win and a Green Bay loss or tie and San Francisco loss or tie. The Panthers (5-10) have lost seven straight games and bettors have lost confidence in Carolina.

NY Jets at Buffalo

The Bills (10-5) are locked into the No. 5 playoff seed in the AFC and are expected to rest more starters. The line has moved from Bills -4.5 to -1.5 against the NY Jets (6-9), who have just one road win this season but are taking money at FanDuel Sportsbook. Bills coach Sean McDermott announced that most starters will play including QB Josh Allen, but backup QB Matt Barkley will also see playing time.

Miami at New England

The line is up from -14.5 to -16 favoring the Patriots (12-3), who can secure the No. 2 seed and a first round bye in the AFC playoffs with a win over the Dolphins (4-11).

Green Bay at Detroit

The Packers (12-3) won the NFC North and can secure the No. 2 seed and first round playoff bye with a win at Detroit. Bettors will back the ‘Pack with Green Bay up from an 8.5-point favorite to -12.5. The Lions (3-11-1) have lost eight straight games.

Arizona at Los Angeles Rams

Bettors saw the Cardinals’ (5-9) impressive win at Seattle last week and are back on Arizona this week. The line is down from -7.5 to -4.5 favoring the Rams (8-7), who missed the playoffs after making it to the Super Bowl last season. Despite the Rams rout of the Cardinals 34-7 in Week 13, bettors are backing Arizona.

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FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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