Teaser bets remain a popular option with many NFL bettors. But you must use caution when selecting which teams you’ll tease, as you can’t win long term without a sound strategy. At TheLines, we’ll go over each week’s NFL slate to see which teams fit best in teasers. Today, we look at options for NFL Week 16 teasers.
Last week was not a good one for teasers, no surprise considering the paucity of options. The plays highlighted here went 2-2, with rare special teams miscues costing the Ravens, the only premium option, the cover.
Be sure to go over our primer on teaser bets here. It’s imperative that you understand what to look for, from the numbers to the sportsbook juice being paid. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now.
The Best NFL Week 16 Teasers
This week, perhaps more so than any other this year, is chock-full of teaser betting options.
Bills (-8.5) At Bears
With such a low total and a dominant, pretty consistent team in the Bills, this looks like a good teaser spot.
However, some weather-related variance could come into play here, which also explains the low total involving the Bills. That’s a theme throughout this week.
Currently, winds in excess of 20 mph are in the forecast. We’ve seen some low-output games from Josh Allen in inclement weather, such as when he passed for just 147 yards against the Jets the last time out.
That came against an elite defense, though. The Bears, by contrast, rank 31st in defense DVOA.
Saints (+2.5) At Browns
Speaking of bad weather, this one should take the cake for Week 16. A cold front for the ages is hitting the Ohio Valley with some areas expected to see “feels like” temps more than 20 below. In Cleveland, Saturday’s forecast features “on and off” snow with almost 30 mph winds.
That creates a dream teaser situation here for the Saints. With the +3s now mostly off the board, a teaser may be the way to go for this one. With the lowest total of the year, buying points won’t ever be more valuable than this spot.
Panthers (+2.5) Vs. Lions
Again, a line move has opened this up to a teaser play, with the Lions having sat -3 earlier in the week.
The pattern for backing the Panthers has been eerily consistent this season. When the market gets excited about them, it’s been time to fade, as they haven’t covered once as favorites. Getting points here, a teaser may be worth a look. While the total isn’t quite as low as some of these others this week, it’s still well within reason for buying points.
Jared Goff also has some pretty stark home/road splits that point to Carolina here. He’s actually thrown more picks than touchdowns away from home, where he’s also had four of his five fumbles and lost almost 2 adjusted net yards per attempt.
Raiders (+2.5) At Steelers
We have one of the lower totals on the board, but unlike some games in the vicinity, this shouldn’t be too terribly impacted by bad weather. Clear skies are in the forecast, with medium-strength winds around 15 mph. It’ll be cold but not overwhelmingly so. The Raiders play in their fair share of cold games in Denver and Kansas City and shouldn’t be too affected.
Guarding the QB from TJ Watt will be paramount, but the Raiders do have the seventh-best pass blocking grade according to PFF.
Other Potential NFL Week 16 Teasers
Rams (+2.5) Vs. Broncos
The Rams appear to have found some stability at QB for the moment with Baker Mayfield, odd as that may sound.
But, the Broncos get their own signal-caller back with Russell Wilson reportedly returning. As rough as he’s been, he should represent a sizable upgrade on Brett Rypien. If the Denver offense can get its act together — certainly no sure bet — then the team could run away from this moribund Rams group. Even the scuffling Packers had no difficulty doing so.
Watch for the status of Aaron Donald, though. The superstar defender hasn’t been medically cleared, so it seems unlikely he plays. Still, there’s a chance, and he would move the needle here.
Ravens (-7.5) Vs. Falcons
This one would belong in the premium plays if we could be sure Lamar Jackson will suit up for the Ravens. Adam Schefter reported Wednesday that Jackson has missed today’s practice, but this market pretty clearly lays out the expectation that he’s going to play. Tyler Huntley just wouldn’t likely be laying this many points even against a bad Falcons team.
Desmond Ridder had a rough debut, failing to even reach 100 passing yards. Facing the Ravens outside, expectations should be muted, to say the least.
But, it’s hard to trust the Ravens’ own offense right now. And if Jackson sits, but you’re still confident in the Ravens, wait to see if you can get a better number straight up.
49ers (-7.5) Vs. Commanders
The 49ers would appear to check most of the boxes here. They’re playing at home and they’re right on a good teaser number at some books, although one can find -7 if one prefers to go that route.
But, remember, teasers are built on certainty, the expectation that we can be confident in these market numbers. Although this far into the season, that’s typically the case, the 49ers are a bit different than most teams due to the tiny sample of Brock Purdy at QB.
While Purdy has certainly looked good overall and even made some head-turning plays, he’s also a rookie seventh-rounder who fired a stinker into a Seahawks player’s chest last week. PFF has dinged him for five turnover-worthy plays, with his 4.5% rate ranking right near the top of the board if he had enough dropbacks to qualify.
The other shoe could still drop here. Best of luck betting NFL Week 16 teasers.