Teaser bets remain a popular option with many NFL bettors. But, you must use caution when selecting which teams you’ll tease, as you can’t win long-term without a sound strategy. At TheLines, we’ll go over each week’s NFL slate to see which teams fit best in teasers. Today, we look at options for NFL Week 16 teasers.
The Best NFL Week 16 Teasers
Teaser options abound again for NFL Week 16. This week has more solid teaser options than any in quite some time, partially a function of the fact that totals have dropped as we move into the colder weather to end the season.
Packers (-7) Vs. Browns
Not too many teams are rolling like the Green Bay Packers. Consider that aside from the game where they had to start Jordan Love at QB, they have won 11 of 12 since that bizarre opening loss to New Orleans.
The offense has become a sight to behold, ranking best in the league in EPA/play as Aaron Rodgers has distanced himself from his rivals in EPA+CPOE composite. Nobody can cover Davante Adams at all, with the Ravens resorting to constant doubles.
The question is what will the Browns have on the field here? Their COVID-19 issues have been well-documented. That probably cost them the game against the Raiders. It’s completely up in the air which members of the secondary and defensive front will play, not to mention who will start at QB, and having the game on Saturday doesn’t help.
At their best, the Browns could make this a game. At their Nick Mullensiest, the Packers roll over them. If you’re worried about the Browns getting over their COVID troubles but want to back the Pack, the teaser is the way to go. However, if this line keeps moving towards the Browns, Packers -6.5 is probably the better plan than a teaser leg at that point.
Ravens (+2.5) At Bengals
Last time these teams met, offense dominated. Specifically, the Bengals offense dominated, piling up 8.3 YPP and lighting up the scoreboard for 41.
So, it wouldn’t appear this would be a game we want to tease, but the total is actually only . A few things have conspired to make this a teaser-friendly total.
For one thing, Lamar Jackson looks questionable at best. The team has little reason to rush him given how capably Tyler Huntley ran the Ravens offense against Green Bay. While he looked fine, he has a much different style than Jackson, lacking the explosive play potential both running and throwing deep.
The Bengals also prefer to come out and establish the run, even though Joe Burrow slinging it downfield to these receivers has paid huge dividends week after week.
Against a Ravens team that excels against the run but struggles against the pass, that should keep the game artificially close even if the Bengals prove the better team.
Bills (+2.5) At Patriots
Among NFL Week 16 teasers that feature rematches, it’s hard to take much away from the first meeting between these two, seeing as it took place in practically hurricane-level winds. When one team throws literally three passes, you probably have to throw it out from a projection perspective.
Still, the market prices on these teams over two games tell us they are very closely matched, an ideal situation in which to grab +8.5 on a teaser with the Bills.
Admittedly, the Patriots do present a tough matchup with their run-focused attack and preference to shade their defense toward opposing passing games. However, that same run-focused attack will help shorten the game, and the Bills showed against the Bucs that they can make up deficits if they fall behind even against strong opponents.
The Patriots have blown some teams out, but the Bills won’t likely fall into the same traps as these bad teams that can’t pass to get back in it. That makes teasing them a nice option here.
Other Potential NFL Week 16 Teasers
Broncos (+1.5) At Raiders
The Raiders spanked the Broncos in October, putting up 8.3 YPP.
However, that game saw the Raiders’ corps of playmakers boasting the likes of Henry Ruggs III and Darren Waller. Those two combined for 156 yards and a TD. Ruggs’ career has obviously ended in tragic fashion and Waller looks questionable at best after missing a few games with an injury. It didn’t sound like he was particularly close to coming back last week either.
The less explosive Raiders should have their hands full here, but the issue comes in the massive variance introduced by Drew Lock at QB. He has been a turnover machine in his career with 20 picks despite just 18 pro starts.
If you are confident the Denver defense can cover this short-handed group of receivers, this still looks like a solid teaser spot, just know going in Lock might blow everything to smithereens.
Chiefs (-7.5) Vs. Steelers
On a similar note, the Chiefs opened as bigger favorites than this, around -10.
Then, COVID-19. It’s up in the air whether top offensive weapons Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will play, to say nothing of rotation DBs Rashad Fenton and Charvarius Ward, and K Harrison Butker. Elite DL Chris Jones and starting LB Willie Gay were already in the protocols.
Now, the Chiefs have dropped into the teaser zone just north of a touchdown. Certainly, they can still beat the Steelers without these players as long as Patrick Mahomes takes the field.
Andy Reid has proven time and again he can make things happen without his top personnel. In the Super Bowl season of 2019, the Chiefs faced two eventual playoff teams without Mahomes. They beat the Vikings and lost a competitive contest to the Packers.
Teasing the Chiefs makes sense given you’re getting the best of the number and it’s a middling total, but there’s a lot of uncertainty here with who will suit up for KC.
Jaguars (+2.5) At Jets
Finally, this week’s toilet bowl matches two teams “fighting” for draft positioning. The Jaguars in particular look like they’re already planning their 2022 vacations. That alone made this an iffy teaser spot even if the total () and line made sense.
Then, news hit the wire of a massive COVID outbreak on the Jets. Head Coach Robert Saleh went on the list, along with multiple starters on offense and defense. Interestingly, the line has barely budged.
So, as of now, the Jaguars still sit in the teaser zone, although that could change soon. They’re coming off probably the worst result possible in the league — a home loss to the Texans — so it’s entirely possible they remain underdogs here.