NFL Week 16 Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears Odds

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on December 24, 2022
bills vs. dolphins odds

The Saturday NFL Week 16 Christmas Eve slate is loaded and features the Buffalo Bills (11-3) heading into Chicago to play the Bears (3-11). Bills vs. Bears odds have Buffalo as spread favorites with Chicago on the moneyline to win the game. The over/under is .

With the Bills coming off their last-minute victory over Miami, and the Bears coming off a game where they hung with the Eagles before losing, this matchup remains key in Buffalo’s hunt for the No. 1 seed and a bye in the postseason. Be aware of NFL weather this week too, including in this game.

Bills vs. Bears Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

This Bills vs. Bears odds table effectively shows all the legal sportsbook MNF odds for each of the three main markets – spreads, totals, and moneylines – so that bettors can know what they’re getting is the best price. Just use the dropdown menu to toggle between the type of bet you want, and then make sure you’re getting the best price when you bet.

If you’re looking at spreads, getting an extra half point on either side can make or break the difference, and getting the best side of a total points market can be crucial as well. When it comes to Moneyline betting, you always want to get the best number possible – all three things that the easy comparison points of the odds table allow.

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Bills vs. Bears Player Props

The props tool enables bettors to effectively track Bills Bears odds across sportsbooks for every player prop, to make sure that bettors aren’t missing out on a better total, or a better value, on a player prop.

Whether it’s getting a total you want to bet an Over on 5 yards lower, or a line where you have to pay less juice, the Props tool enables bettors to make sure they’re not missing out on the best available SNF odds.

Bills vs. Bears Betting News & Angles

Bills Vs. Bears Weather

Dry conditions and 21 mph winds are predicted at Soldier Field with stronger gusts, with a high temperature of 11 degrees Fahrenheit.

Bills Vs. Bears Injury Report

Buffalo Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Mitch MorseCConcussionOut59.0
Ed OliverDTCalfQuestionable40.1
Jordan PhillipsDTShoulderQuestionable31.5
Carlos Basham Jr.DECalfOut28.7

Chicago Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Jaylon JohnsonDBFingerQuestionable62.5
Kindle VildorDBAnkleOut50.5
Chase ClaypoolWRKneeDoubtful46.7
Equanimeous St. BrownWRConcussionOut37.1
Jack SanbornLBAnkleOut34.6
Trevon WescoTELegOut18.3

Bills Offense Vs. Bears Defense

Bills OffenseStats (Rank)Bears Defense
27.5 (4)Points/Gm25.6 (30)
0.4 (1)Points/Play0.4 (14)
400.6 (2)Yards/Gm355.6 (22)
265.7 (5)Pass Yards/Gm211.7 (15)
134.9 (8)Rush Yards/Gm143.9 (27)
6.1 (3)Yards/Play5.9 (29)
7.2 (6)Yards/Pass7.5 (30)
5.0 (3)Yards/Rush4.6 (21)
49.4% (2)3rd Down %49.4% (32)
59.6% (12)Red Zone %63.8% (27)
21 (27)Turnovers18 (13)
30 (9)Sacks17 (32)

Bears Offense Vs. Bills Defense

Bears OffenseStats (Rank)Bills Defense
20.7 (19)Points/Gm17.9 (2)
0.3 (15)Points/Play0.3 (2)
324.0 (23)Yards/Gm325.4 (9)
137.1 (32)Pass Yards/Gm219.3 (18)
186.9 (1)Rush Yards/Gm106.1 (6)
5.4 (15)Yards/Play5.2 (10)
6.4 (19)Yards/Pass6.1 (9)
5.4 (1)Yards/Rush4.4 (14)
44.6% (7)3rd Down %39.3% (17)
58.1% (13)Red Zone %46.3% (3)
19 (23)Turnovers22 (4)
48 (29)Sacks37 (11)

Bills vs. Bears Betting Insights

Reasons The Bills Can Cover The Spread

The Bears actively want to lose games at this point, and while players don’t tank, it is safe to say that the coaches and the organization know they are in position for the 2nd overall pick. For the Bears, they aren’t in a position where they will be going all out to win this, and if they’re down late it’s unlikely they’ll be uber-aggressive.

The Bills should score enough in this game to easily cover the spread – the Bears defense is near or at the bottom of every defensive metric, and the Bills should be able to easily slice them up. So long as the Bills Defense plays average, they should cover.

Reasons The Bears Can Cover The Spread

Justin Fields is an electric runner, and there is a case to be made that he might just be able to will the Bears to enough points to cover this spread anyways. The Bills have struggled in recent weeks to cover these big spreads, including last week.

If Fields can orchestrate an offense that takes enough clock off and reduces the number of plays, that will be the path for the Bears.

Reasons to bet the over

If this game goes over the number, it’s likely because the Bills are covering this number. If the game goes over, it will go over in large part because the Bills manage to score at will against the truly putrid Bears defense, and Fields and the Bears are having to play from behind all game.

If that happens, the Bills are likely covering this number, which makes the correlation sensible.

Reasons to bet the under

As the Bills covering is likely correlated to an Over, the Bears covering this game probably comes with an under. If the Bears cover this game, it will likely take the Bills’ pass-heavy offense not clicking on early downs and then the Bears getting enough stops on 3rd and longs, and the Bears offense taking a long time to methodically go down the field.

If this game goes under, it’ll be because Justin Fields milks the clock and reduces the number of plays or because the winds make both passing games inept, which correlates well to a Bears cover either way.

Bills vs. Bears Props: Matchups To Watch For

David Montgomery Rushing Yards: This is one where the Under might make a lot of sense, for fairly obvious reasons. The Bears are projected to be in a pass-happy negative game script (barring high winds), and if the Bears are behind, it’s gonna have to be a lot of Justin Fields – either passing, or him making plays himself. With that likelihood, Montgomery could be a fairly inessential part of the picture.

Final Thoughts

The Bills putting up less than 30 without a massive wind effect would be a shock at this point.

The Bears are the worst defense in football – they have no redeeming features or talents, they have nothing going for them, and they know it, because they traded everything that was any good for draft picks. Whatever the merits of that move long term, it doesn’t make it any better for this week.

The Bills have been on cruise control in recent weeks, but the Dolphins, Jets, and Lions – the teams who have covered against Buffalo in 3 of their last four games – are all at least good teams. This Bears team is awful.

The Bills should be able to sleepwalk to points in this game, and if they do that, the Bears don’t have the weapons outside Fields to match them, or to even keep this close. It should be the Bills here.

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