The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas release NFL advance look-ahead lines each week, and Week 16 features six division games as teams race down the stretch trying to secure a playoff spot. The Vikings try to tame the Lions in their den and Minnesota needs a win to hold onto their wild card position while the Panthers host the Falcons with Carolina needing to help themselves heading into a Week 15 Monday night match-up with division rival New Orleans.
Two Saturday games will kick off Week 16 action with no Thursday night game on the schedule. A potential playoff preview and key AFC contest has Baltimore traveling west to tackle the LA Chargers.
Review the NFL Week 16 look-ahead lines below and start preparing to watch and wager on some key division games and primetime games with playoff contenders.
Adjusting to market moves
Road favorites struggled for the second straight week as bettors poured their money on the favorites and came up short. Week 14 road favorites went just 3-5 SU/ATS with all five ATS losses in straight-up fashion. The last two weeks have seen road favorites go 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS. Week 15 has four road favorites, including some key contests as New England visits Pittsburgh and New Orleans at Carolina on Monday night.
According to Sports Insights, which monitors sportsbooks and betting activity, the Saints (-6.5) are taking 73% of the bets against the Panthers while the Patriots (-2.5) are taking a week-high 82% of the bets against the Steelers as of Thursday afternoon.
The two other road favorites are Houston (-7) at the NY Jets and Seattle (-4.5) at San Francisco. The Texans are taking 75% of the bets while the Seahawks are taking 68% of the bets.
Those four teams as road favorites are taking four of the five most bets and betting action, as the Rams (-11.5) have been bet up and are taking 71% of the bets at home against the Eagles. So a majority of bettors are not adjusting but more often chasing market moves. That includes on Seattle, who despite taking a majority of the bets has seen the line drop and reverse line movement. More bets have come in on the Seahawks, yet the line has dropped, indicating more sharp action on the 49ers.
Adjusting to the market moves and even optional bets like teasers is a strategy to consider and employ, but hard habits are tough to break if you just wager on favorites and like to tease them down. Last week the Patriots (-8.5) and Steelers (-10) lost outright as big road favorites, and the last play touchdown and Miami Miracle by the Dolphins took out all teasers and money line bets on the Patriots as well.
Despite many teams being eliminated from the playoffs, we saw last week that even the dregs at the bottom of the standings like the Oakland, San Francisco, New York Jets, Cleveland and even Miami as big underdog can rise up as beaten ‘Dogs. The previous week, the NY Giants, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, who had lost seven straight games, also rose up in victory as ugly underdogs as the market moves on the favorites increased.
The contrary nature of the NFL produces surprising results on a weekly basis. Are you adjusting to the market moves and making the right reads and in-game betting adjustments as you make your wagers?
Week 15 look-ahead lines and major moves
Many bettors react more to recent results and are often unwilling to bet on bad teams. That’s what happened the past two weeks and is continuing in Week 15. Injuries can clearly impact the market and major moves, and we’ve seen a number of teams turn to backup quarterbacks as the starters suffer injuries.
Mark Sanchez (WAS), Cody Kessler (JAX), Chase Daniel (CHI), Jeff Driskel (CIN) and Nick Mullens (SF) have started in recent weeks, and now Josh Johnson (WAS) will start at quarterback for the Redskins in Week 15 after saying, “a week ago I was home in the hood, chilling with the kids.” Not exactly a positive profile or position to support with your betting dollars, nor is laying 7.5 points with the Jaguars and their mess and quarterback situation as Jacksonville tackles Washington in Week 15. Yet the Jaguars are taking 64% of the bets just two weeks removed from a seven-game losing streak and a home game against the Colts when Jacksonville was taking less than 35% of the bets.
The biggest line moves from the Week 15 look ahead lines to the current lines are:
- Cleveland at Denver (DEN -6, SuperBook) – Current line Broncos -2.5
- Washington at Jacksonville (JAX -5.5, FanDuel) – Current line Jaguars -7.5
- Seattle at San Francisco (SEA -7, SuperBook) – Current line Seahawks -4
- Philadelphia at LA Rams (LAR -8, FanDuel) – Current line Rams -11.5
NFL Week 16 look-ahead betting lines
Key games to look forward to in Week 16 includes the aforementioned Ravens and Chargers in Los Angeles on Saturday. The pressure mounts on the Steelers Sunday afternoon as they travel to New Orleans, followed by the primetime Sunday night game between Kansas City and Seattle.
Don’t’ forget to tune in Monday night as the Raiders host division rival Broncos in what may be the final home game in Oakland. The Raiders are looking for a new stadium to call home for the 2019 season as the city of Oakland recently filed lawsuits against the Raiders and the NFL. The Raiders move to Las Vegas for the 2020 season, and the NFL recently announced that Las Vegas will host the NFL draft in 2020.
|Game||Westgate Line||FanDuel Line|
|Washington at Tennessee||TEN -10.5||TEN -10|
|Baltimore at LA Chargers||LAC -5||LAC -5.5|
|Tampa Bay at Dallas||DAL -7.5||DAL -6.5|
|Buffalo at New England||NE -13||NE -13.5|
|Atlanta at Carolina||CAR -6||CAR -5|
|Jacksonville at Miami||MIA -4||MIA -6|
|NY Giants at Indianapolis||IND -6||IND -6|
|Houston at Philadelphia||PK||HOU -2|
|Minnesota at Detroit||MIN -3||MIN -3.5|
|Green Bay at NY Jets||GB -3.5||GB -4|
|Cincinnati at Cleveland||CLE -7||CLE -7.5|
|LA Rams at Arizona||LAR -11.5||LAR -9.5|
|Chicago at San Francisco||CHI -6||CHI -5.5|
|Pittsburgh at New Orleans||NO -7||NO -6|
|Kansas City at Seattle||SEA -1||KC -1|
|Denver at Oakland||DEN -2.5||DEN -4|