Teaser bets remain a popular option with many NFL bettors. But, you must use caution when selecting which teams you’ll tease, as you can’t win long-term without a sound strategy. At TheLines, we’ll go over each week’s NFL slate to see which teams fit best in teasers. Today, we look at options for NFL Week 15 teasers.
The Best NFL Week 15 Teasers
Last week’s teasers looked enticing and they wound up quite profitable indeed with all four sides we highlighted coming home. This week also features a few good options, and all happen to be underdogs.
Patriots (+2.5) At Colts
A week ago in the look-ahead markets, the market ever so slightly favored the Patriots on the road in Indianapolis. That number has flipped to the Colts favored, and the number has settled where we can comfortably tease the Patriots, should we so choose.
The total is a middling , well within the teaser zone as well.
As for the way these teams match up, both do look to have the ability to slow the other’s running game. That looks particularly important for teasing the Patriots here, because the Colts have shown the rare ability to keep scoring in a positive script by just handing the ball off. The eighth-ranked defense in rush EPA/play allowed should prevent that from happening.
Some of the markets have inched toward Patriots +3 so keep an eye out for that number popping. If it doesn’t, a teaser looks like the best way to back the Pats.
Steelers (+2) Vs. Titans
This one looks potentially even better than Patriots. That’s due to the total being even lower at and the Steelers being a home underdog rather than playing on the road.
The Titans just don’t look like a team that can blow anyone out right now, sad sack Jaguars and the like excepted. Tennessee ranks 23rd in offensive EPA since losing Derrick Henry. The passing game got Julio Jones back and he contributed all of 4 receptions for 33 yards.
The only bugaboo here could be Ben Roethlisberger turnovers. The Titans remain pretty strong on defense, but Roethlisberger did show signs of life down the stretch the past couple of games. As long as he doesn’t hand the Titans a bunch of points, this should be a close, low-scoring contest.
Bengals (+2.5) Vs. Broncos
Two more teams that are happy to play slow, grindy football meet in Mile High. The Bengals and Broncos both rank in the top half of the league in rushing play percentage and in the bottom four in pace.
Again, all of the ingredients are in place for a low-scoring game. The total reflects this, and makes this a good spot to tease the Bengals.
Even if the Bengals fall behind, they showed against the 49ers they can unleash their downfield passing and make up a deficit if need be. Joe Burrow ranks eighth in EPA+CPOE composite.
More importantly, the Bengals have the muscle up front — fifth in adjusted line yards — to keep the Broncos’ running game in check. That should keep them from opening up a big lead here.
Other Potential NFL Week 15 Teasers
Browns (+1.5) Vs. Raiders
With the total having plunged to in the wake of continued COVID-19 positives in Cleveland, the number is an absolute dream for teasers.
The problem here comes from…the aforementioned avalanche of COVID positives. While the numbers here look great on paper, the Browns may have reached a point where the bottom falls out and they can’t field a competitive team. The market still sees this as a close game, but this is the type of outlier scenario that a projection system is going to have a difficult time parsing.
At this point, at least eight starters have hit the COVID-19 list, in addition to several rotation players. Even in a best-case scenario where some of them come back, keep in mind the team’s preparation has been drastically hindered.
Remember, even just losing their entire receiving room and having most of the rest of the team healthy resulted in a Browns playoff team losing outright to the pitiful Jets last year.
If you want to tease this one, it fits in theory, just be aware the variance here is tremendous.