The Recency Report: NFL Week 14 Market Moves And Week 15 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on December 5, 2019

Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing week’s games on the schedule.

In this article, we also take a look at the current lines compared to the opening line odds at FanDuel from the previous week.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to the previous week’s scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 14 market movement

GameOpenCurrent
Dallas at ChicagoDAL -3.5DAL -3
Baltimore at BuffaloBAL -6.5BAL -5.5
Washington at Green BayGB -14.5GB -13
Denver at HoustonHOU -7.5HOU -9.5
San Francisco at New OrleansNO -3 NO -2.5
Cincinnati at ClevelandCLE -10.5CLE -8.5
Carolina at AtlantaATL -1.5ATL -3
Detroit at MinnesotaMIN -12.5MIN -13
Miami at NY JetsNYJ -7.5NYJ -5
Indianapolis at Tampa BayTB -1.5TB -3
LA Chargers at JacksonvilleLAC -1LAC -3
Kansas City at New EnglandNE -4.5NE -3
Pittsburgh at ArizonaARI -1.5PIT -2.5
Tennessee at OaklandTEN -1TEN -3
Seattle at LA RamsSEA -2.5LAR -1
NY Giants at PhiladelphiaPHI -9PHI -9.5

Here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 14 NFL card:

  • Road underdogs are 69-45 ATS (61%) this season and all favorites of greater than six points are 53-11 SU but 28-35-1 ATS.
  • A monster match-up in New Orleans where the 49ers (10-2) and Saints (10-2) strap it on with a potential No. 1 playoff seed at stake in the NFC. Little movement from the look ahead lines with New Orleans currently a 2.5-point favorite. The 49ers conclude the toughest three-game stretch of the season having beat Green Bay (37-8) and falling at Baltimore (20-17) last week.
  • The five games that have at least a two-point adjustment from the look-ahead lines:
    • AFC South-leading Houston (8-4) up to -9.5 versus Denver (4-8) as of Friday evening. The Texans are 5-1 at home after a pair of key home wins the last two weeks over the Patriots and Colts. The Broncos are 1-5 on the road. Rookie QB Drew Lock makes his second straight start for the Broncos after a 23-20 home win over the Chargers last week. Denver had just 218 yards total offense at 4.1 yards per play with Lock passing for 134 yards (4.8 yards per pass) with a pair of touchdowns and one interception. Denver ranks No. 30 in scoring offense, averaging 16.5 points per game.
    • Cleveland (5-7) is down to a 7.5-point favorite over division rival Cincinnati (1-11), which won its first game last week. The Browns saw their playoff hopes dashed in a 20-13 loss at Pittsburgh.
    • The New York Jets (4-8) are down to a 5.5-point favorite over Miami (3-9) and were as low as -5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. New York is off an embarrassing loss at Cincinnati 22-6 while the Dolphins shot down the Eagles 37-31. Miami still has a league-worst -117 point scoring differential while the Jets are -76.
    • The LA Chargers (4-8) are up to a three-point road favorite at Jacksonville (4-8), which has lost four straight games all by at least 17 points. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew will take over again for Nick Foles. The Chargers have lost three straight games and have covered just three games this season against the closing line.
    • Despite Seattle (10-2) now tied for the best record in the NFC and coming off an impressive 37-30 win over the Vikings Monday night, it’s the LA Rams (7-5) who are taking the money. Seattle was a 2.5-point favorite on the look ahead line, but now the Rams are a one-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook. However, DraftKings Sportsbook had the Seahawks (-1) favored by one point as of Friday.

Market Game of the Week: Baltimore (10-2) takes its AFC-best offense (421/game) and No. 1 rushing attack (210/game) to Buffal0 to tackle the Bills (9-3). Buffalo’s run defense has allowed just 70 rushing YPG over their last three contests and overall rank No. 3 in total defense (300 YPG). But since the creation of the 16-game regular season, no team has rushed for 200 or more yards per game through an entire season, and the Ravens’ 5.6 yards per rush would be second all time over the course of a season.

Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman was Buffalo’s offensive coordinator in 2015 and two games in 2016. He’s exceptional with the run schemes as a former offensive line coach, and the read-pass option and power run attack led by QB Lamar Jackson’s unique skill set is lethal. Jackson’s performances have led him to the top of the MVP rankings as the prohibitive favorite. The Bills sack production (37) has seen them record a league-high 15 sacks over their last three games. But bettors are still buying in on the Ravens, who are taking most the bets in this week’s key AFC contest in a game the Ravens also hold a solid special teams edge.

Playoff implications and seeding on the line for a most meaningful late season game in Buffalo where cloudy skies and 15 MPH winds will make it feel colder than mid-30’s forecast. The Ravens are currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff chase while the Bills are just one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East. The line has moved little but is down from last week’s look-ahead line of Ravens -6.5 with the Bills getting extra rest and preparation following their Thanksgiving day win at Dallas.

NFL Week 15 look-ahead lines

The push for the playoffs has reached December and the key Week 15 contest is Tennessee (7-5) at Houston (8-4) in a big AFC South showdown. The Titans are on a 3-0 SU/ATS run heading into their Week 14 matchup at Oakland as they try to stay within striking distance of division leader Houston. The Texans and Titans also meet in Week 17 so the division title is still up for grabs.

GameFanDuel Spread
Jets at RavensBAL -14
Buccaneers at LionsTB -4
Eagles at RedskinsPHI -6
Bears at PackersGB -7.5
Patriots at BengalsNE -10.5
Texans at TitansTEN -1.5
Seahawks at PanthersSEA -4
Broncos at ChiefsKC -12.5
Dolphins at GiantsNYG -3.5
Bills at SteelersBUF -1
Jaguars at RaidersOAK -4.5
Browns at CardinalsCLE -2.5
Falcons at 49ersSF -10.5
Rams at CowboysDAL -4
Vikings at ChargersMIN -3
Colts at SaintsNO -8.5

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. The highest projected point spreads from the summer for Week 15 (you’ll notice some major adjustments):

  • New England (-7) at Cincinnati: The Patriots are projected as at least a 10-point favorite.
  • Denver at Kansas City (-9.5): The Chiefs will be a double-digit favorite closer to 13 points. The Chiefs buried the Broncos 30-6 in Denver on Oct. 17 and QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) was injured that game. Mahomes has returned from injury and is back leading the Chiefs to another AFC West title.
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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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