NFL Week 15 Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings Odds

Written By Eli Hershkovich on December 17, 2022
Vikings Colts Odds

The Minnesota Vikings square off against the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET. This midwest affair, which is the second contest on NFL Week 15 odds board, showcases Vikings at Colts odds with a spread of Minnesota and on the moneyline. The total is set at .

In this post, we’ll dive into everything you need to know before placing a bet on Vikings – Colts odds, including matchups, key metrics, and the best available numbers.

Colts at Vikings Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the Vikings – Colts odds table above, click the dropdown menu to switch to moneylines or over/unders. 

Betting on the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Vikings need to win by four or more if you bet on them against the spread, as they’re priced as 3.5-point home favorite at most shops. Conversely, a spread bet on the Colts would need Indianapolis to lose by at most a field goal or win outright.

The total is the number of combined points that the two teams will score. Bettors can bet “over” or “under” on how many total points will be scored in the game.

  • Join our NFL Discord channel to receive an immediate notification when any of our staff members places a bet, including on the Vikings – Colts odds. Sign up under the #roles server.

Colts at Vikings Odds: Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet.

Colts at Vikings: Betting News

Indianapolis has accrued 81% of the spread handle while Minnesota has tallied 65% of the tickets, respectively. This data comes from BetMGM Sportsbook, which is trading the Colts at . Additional updates on the Vikings – Colts odds can be found below.

Colts at Vikings Weather

Weather will not be an issue, given U.S. Bank Stadium has a roof.

Colts at Vikings Injury Report

Minnesota Injuries

Garrett BradburyCBackQuestionable
Danielle HunterOLBNeckQuestionable
Cameron DantzlerCBIllnessQuestionable
Patrick Jones IIOLBIllnessQuestionable
Blake BrandelOTKneeQuestionable

Indianapolis Injuries

Kenny Moore IICBShinOut
Brandon FacysonCBIllnessDoubtful
Mike StrachanWRConcussionOut

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TheLines Podcast: NFL Week 15 Betting Breakdown

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Vikings – Colts Odds: Betting Insights

Why The Colts Could Cover The Spread

Both teams possess a top-six passing rate across the NFL, so let’s begin there. Although the Vikings are on the verge of winning the NFC North, defensive coordinator Ed Donatell presents an exploitable shell zone defense, allowing the 10th-highest Dropback EPA.

It doesn’t get much better after adjusting for their previous opponents, as Minnesota ranks No. 27 in Defensive Pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders). Hence, the initial indicators point towards the underdog Colts — even with an aging Matt Ryan under center.

Surprisingly, Ryan displays an above-average Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) among all quarterbacks. This metric accounts for accompanying variables that make a pass more or less likely to be completed. He’s even tallied the 11th-highest accuracy rating against zone defenses.

Nevertheless, Ryan owns the fifth-lowest Dropback EPA — in front of only Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, Davis Mills, Baker Mayfield. In short, he’s lacked the ability to generate explosive plays, regardless of the type of defense he’s faced.

How Overvalued Are The Vikings?

Minnesota is the only team in NFL history to attain a 10-3 straight-up record while accruing a negative point differential (-1).

Kirk Cousins has also struggled versus zone looks throughout his career. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley operates a Cover-3 scheme, and it’s held up nicely after his personnel finally adjusted to a new-look defense.

Since Week 7, Indianapolis is yielding the fifth-lowest Dropback Success Rate. For context, a play is deemed successful if teams produce:

  • 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
  • 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
  • 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down

Therefore, cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Isaiah Rodgers, who both provide top-10 coverage grades in 2022, could hold Offensive Player of the Year favorite Justin Jefferson () in check.

Will The Total Go Over Or Under?

While Minnesota may struggle with its passing attack, the potential tempo on both sides scares me off the under. Each offense boasts an above-average pace in neutral situations (per FO). The Vikings second-half tempo slots in at No. 5, too. That isn’t surprising, considering all of their comebacks needed to attain a 10-3 straight-up record.

Final Thoughts

I certainly lean towards the Colts, but I don’t have any bets in at the moment. Join our Discord betting channel to see how others are approaching this matchup. Good luck with your own wagers on Colts at Vikings odds.

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