NFL Week 15 Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Spread

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on December 17, 2022
dolphins bills spread

The Saturday NFL three-game slate ends with a rare Saturday Night Football game, as the 8-5 Miami Dolphins head into Buffalo to play the 10-3 division-leading Bills. Buffalo is favored in the game, with the Dolphins Bills spread currently having Buffalo and Miami on the moneyline to win the game. The over/under is .

With the Bills riding a four-game winning streak and the Dolphins heading in the wrong direction, this could be key to the Bills solidifying their division lead. The Dolphins margin for error to make the playoffs is also in limbo in this one.

Dolphins Bills Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

This Dolphins Bills spread table effectively shows all the legal sportsbook MNF odds for each of the three main markets – spreads, totals, and moneylines – so that bettors can know what they’re getting is the best price. Just use the dropdown menu to toggle between the type of bet you want, and then make sure you’re getting the best price when you bet.

If you’re looking at spreads, getting an extra half point on either side can make or break the difference, and getting the best side of a total points market can be crucial as well. When it comes to Moneyline betting, you always want to get the best number possible – all three things that the easy comparison points of the odds table allow.

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Patriots vs. Cardinals Player Props

The props tool enables bettors to effectively track Dolphins Bills odds across sportsbooks for every player prop, to make sure that bettors aren’t missing out on a better total, or a better value, on a player prop.

Whether it’s getting a total you want to bet an Over on 5 yards lower, or a line where you have to pay less juice, the Props tool enables bettors to make sure they’re not missing out on the best available SNF odds.

Dolphins vs. Bills Betting News & Angles

Bills Vs. Dolphins Weather

A high temperature of 28 degrees Fahrenheit, with lake-effect snow and 12 mph winds, is the forecast for Highmark Stadium on Saturday. A Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect.

Bills Vs. Dolphins Injury Report

Buffalo Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Jordan PhillipsDTShoulderOut31.5

Miami Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Terron ArmsteadOTToeQuestionable52.6
Jeff Wilson Jr.RBHipQuestionable32.4
Teddy BridgewaterQBKneeQuestionable24.3
Elijah CampbellDBConcussionOut23.1
River CracraftWRCalfDoubtful15.3

Bills Offense Vs. Dolphins Defense

Bills OffenseStats (Rank)Dolphins Defense
27.2 (4)Points/Gm24 (22)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (14)
397.1 (2)Yards/Gm350.8 (20)
263.4 (6)Pass Yards/Gm242.5 (23)
133.7 (8)Rush Yards/Gm108.3 (7)
6.1 (3)Yards/Play5.4 (13)
7.2 (8)Yards/Pass6.6 (16)
5 (4)Yards/Rush4.3 (11)
48.7% (2)3rd Down %42.6% (24)
57.4% (13)Red Zone %60% (24)
20 (28)Turnovers12 (28)
28 (10)Sacks33 (13)

Dolphins Offense Vs. Bills Defense

Dolphins OffenseStats (Rank)Bills Defense
24.3 (9)Points/Gm17 (2)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.3 (1)
367.8 (7)Yards/Gm319.3 (9)
277.9 (2)Pass Yards/Gm219.5 (19)
89.8 (29)Rush Yards/Gm99.8 (4)
6.2 (2)Yards/Play5.1 (8)
7.9 (1)Yards/Pass6 (5)
4.1 (22)Yards/Rush4.2 (6)
37.8% (23)3rd Down %39.6% (18)
62.5% (7)Red Zone %47.4% (3)
15 (11)Turnovers22 (4)
28 (10)Sacks35 (9)

Dolphins vs. Bills Betting Insights

Reasons The Dolphins Can Cover The Spread

This is a lot of points for a team that, until two straight losses, was in serious contention to win the AFC East. Yes, they have lost the last two games, and their offense has faltered, but it’s still more than a touchdown in division against a Bills team that hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire recently.

The Dolphins still have the No. 1 DVOA passing offense for the season and in a snowy Buffalo, the offense’s advantage of knowing where they want to go might give the Dolphins’ speed a lot of advantages.

Why The Bills can cover the spread

Since Week 11, the Dolphins have had the deepest Average Depth of Target in the league, which has led to some of their offensive woes. With the Bills having a top 12 Pressure Rate while blitzing in the bottom 10 of the league, the Bills should be able to disrupt Tua as he goes for these deep passes, like the Niners did two weeks ago.

On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen and the offense hasn’t been incredible by any means recently, but Allen’s ability to extend drives with his legs will be crucial, especially if the snow and wind limit passing.

Reasons to bet the over

The Bills always have the ability to score in bunches, and have shown their ability to do so even in snowy conditions, like last year’s playoff game against the Patriots. If the Dolphins can adjust their offense back to a more quick passing, higher completion %, shorter air yards approach, they will be able to get their good receivers in space and make plays.

With both teams’ abilities to score big play touchdowns, that would also help speed the game up.

Reasons to bet the under

The Dolphins could continue to run a route tree that’s not conducive to their success, and if the winds are up there could be a slower, more methodical approach to scoring drives. If the deep passes are off the table because of the weather, then this could be an easy under.

Dolphins vs. Bills Props: Matchups To Watch For

Josh Allen Rushing Yards: Allen has broken 40 yards rushing in 3 of his last five games and he has been willing to run through contact when the passing game hasn’t been there. If the Bills are going to potentially have to throw less this week because of a windy Ralph, then Allen is likely going to pick up some of that slack with his legs.

Final Thoughts

The Bills should be favoured in this game, but this line is too high.

The problem is that this line is too high because the Dolphins have been shown up the last two weeks. First against the Niners, and then on Sunday Night Football against the Chargers, their offense has looked incredibly mediocre. It’s a fair concern, but it’s also probably a market low for the Dolphins.

For the Bills, they’ve recovered from their back-to-back losses with 4 straight wins, and are back to a state where the market expects big things from them. Not unreasonably, but they failed to cover big spreads against the Lions and the Jets.

For the Dolphins, the tweak to their offense seems pretty easy to diagnose – their propensity for long passes is leaving them in too many 2nd and longs. Get a more balanced passing game back and they can be the offense they were. Mike McDaniels managed to make Tua look like a good Quarterback earlier in the year, and assuming it was just a fluke seems like a bad bet.

At some point, it’s more than a touchdown in division with two teams with similar records. It’s too big of a number given the Bills aren’t dropping 35 with regularity. Best of luck betting the Dolphins Bills spread.

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