NFL Week 15 Implied Team Totals: Can The Bills Offense Return To Form?

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 19, 2021
NFL Week 15 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 15 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 15 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Dec. 14, rounded to the nearest whole number. Keep in mind that this week in particular, COVID-19 outbreaks could significantly shift some of these lines.

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NFL Week 15 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Cardinals31LionsAway-13.547.5
Buccaneers29SaintsHome-10.546.5
Chiefs28ChargersAway-352
Cowboys28GiantsAway-10.544.5
49ers27FalconsHome-8.546
Bills27PanthersHome-10.543.5
Rams25SeahawksHome-444.5
Eagles25Football TeamHome-544
Chargers25ChiefsHome352
Dolphins25JetsHome-8.542
Colts24PatriotsHome-2.545.5
Vikings24BearsAway-444
Packers24RavensAway-4.543.5
Broncos23BengalsHome-1.543.5
Jaguars22TexansHome-3.539.5
Patriots22ColtsAway2.545.5
Browns22RaidersHome-340
Titans22SteelersAway-1.541.5
Bengals21BroncosAway1.543.5
Seahawks21RamsAway444.5
Ravens20PackersHome4.543.5
Football Team20EaglesAway544
Steelers20TitansHome1.541.5
Bears20VikingsHome444
Raiders19BrownsAway340
Falcons1949ersAway8.546
Saints18BuccaneersAway10.546.5
Texans18JaguarsAway3.539.5
Jets17DolphinsAway8.542
Lions17CardinalsHome13.547.5
Giants17CowboysHome10.544.5
Panthers17BillsAway10.543.5

Highest NFL Week 15 implied team totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Cardinals3130.5-110-110
Buccaneers2929-108-112
Chiefs2827.5-108-112
Cowboys2827.5-112-108
49ers2728-110-110
Bills2727.5-108-114

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Back in Week 8, the Bucs and Saints met in the Caesars Superdome and the Saints got the win.

However, they did not do an especially good job containing this offense. The Bucs got 8 YPA through the air and 5.1 YPA on the ground. The Saints feasted off big plays, sacking Tom Brady three times and preying on a poor, predictable pass in a negative game script for the game-sealing pick-six. They also had another pick of Brady and stripped him for yet another turnover.

Those kinds of plays tend to come and go a little randomly. Especially if the Bucs don’t fall into a “must pass” script — which seems unlikely since they are huge favorites — Brady should be a bit safer here, and he has a more complete set of weapons with Rob Gronkowski back at full strength.

Kansas City Chiefs

Another divisional rematch, this one sees the Chiefs and Chargers battle with the divisional crown very likely on the line.

The Chargers have done solid work limiting the Chiefs the past couple of years. Early last season, they held them to 23 points in an overtime loss. This season, they beat them in Arrowhead early on, holding them to 24. Patrick Mahomes had 6.4 and 5.9 YPA in those games, hardly banner days.

Now, the first game came under a different coaching staff, but perhaps their personnel matches up better than most teams’.

An interesting wrinkle here is the Chiefs’ willingness and potential ability to pound the rock. The offensive line has surged of late. They’re up to 11th in adjusted line yards and match up with Football Outsiders’ 32nd-ranked run defense by DVOA.

Buffalo Bills

Perhaps the most interesting team to follow this week, the Bills are coming off two disappointing offensive performances in a row. First, they managed just 10 points in the windstorm against the Patriots. Then, they took until the fourth quarter to really make a dent in the scoreboard against Tampa.

Now, they get a Panthers team that has sunk to doormat status. However, the metrics still believe in this defense, with DVOA rating them 10th and EPA/play seventh. They’re particularly strong against opposing passing games, which is ideal against a team that doesn’t run with running backs pretty much ever.

Many questions are swirling here. Will the Bills cave to media critiques and run the ball more? Will Josh Allen’s sprained foot limit him running and/or passing? Remember, he carried the ground game the last two weeks, leading the team in rushing.

Lowest NFL Week 15 implied team totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Saints1817-112-108
Texans1817.5-106-116
Jets1716-106-116
Giants1716.5-116-106
Lions1717-110-110
Panthers1716-110-110

New Orleans Saints

After sinking to an ugly low in their Thursday Night Football loss to Dallas, the Saints rebounded in expected fashion against the pitiful Jets. Taysom Hill had another big day on the ground with 2 TDs and 73 yards, and Alvin Kamara ground out 120 yards and a TD as well.

The Jets, this will not be, though.

Tampa has regressed to the middle of the pack against the run metric-wise but that looks mostly due to facing an elite rushing offense (Colts) and a couple of especially tricky players to defend (Cordarrelle Patterson and Josh Allen).

Against a predictable, one-dimensional Saints offense, they might look better. And if they do, and Hill has to shift to high-volume passing, this could get very ugly a la the Dallas game.

Detroit Lions

The Rams may have exposed the on-paper deficiency the Cardinals have at corner, one that hasn’t really bitten them this year. They challenged them deep repeatedly, and the Cardinals’ corners frequently did not look up to the task of downfield coverage.

However, there’s perhaps no team less able to exploit this weakness than the Lions. They have shifted their passing game to almost entirely screen passes, swing passes and other short stuff. Jared Goff ranks dead last in average depth of target among high-volume QBs.

Even their short stuff and ground game has lost a lot of its teeth without TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift, both very questionable this week. This looks like it will be another tough day for this awful offense.

New York Giants

The Giants‘ 21 points and 4.9 YPP last week really doesn’t tell the tale of how terribly their offense performed. The Chargers went to sleep with a big lead and the Giants got 14 fourth-quarter points and plenty of basically free yards.

Mike Glennon is completing just 53% of his passes. He’s getting 5.3 YPA and has more interceptions than touchdowns. At 32, his days of passably piloting an NFL offense may have ended.

After months of dealing with injuries, Dallas finally has its defensive front back intact. Worse yet for opposing offenses, the time Micah Parsons spent moonlighting as an EDGE has only increased his skill set. Now, the team can weaponize him even more than they already did.

Only Dallas running away in this one seems likely to result in any Giants points.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

Green Bay Packers

Because of the uncertainty around Lamar Jackson, FanDuel Sportsbook has not yet posted team totals for this game.

However, the implied number for Green Bay, 24, looks awfully low for an elite passing game that ranks second in EPA/play this season. Remember, injuries have wrecked this Ravens secondary to the point they only have one of their initial starters remaining.

The Ravens rely heavily on the blitz, but Aaron Rodgers is as adept as anyone at recognizing that and pivoting into his quick-hitting passes to Davante Adams and fades to Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Working in the Ravens’ favor might be 15 mph winds in the forecast.

LA Chargers

Since Week 6, the KC defense is fifth in EPA/play allowed and third in defense DVOA. That’s quite the turnaround from the bottom-two unit they were over the first month and change of the season.

The rub is that they have not faced the most impressive group of offenses in that stretch. Only Dallas ranks top 10 in DVOA, unless you want to give them credit for strangling an overmatched Jordan Love.

The Chargers are clicking on offense again, with Justin Herbert shredding teams downfield. This will be a big test for the Chiefs, particularly indoors and against an aggressive coach willing to give his team four downs.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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