Teaser bets remain a popular option with many NFL bettors. But, you must use caution when selecting which teams you’ll tease, as you can’t win long-term without a sound strategy. At TheLines, we’ll go over each week’s NFL slate to see which teams fit best in teasers. Today, we look at options for NFL Week 14 teasers.
The Best NFL Week 14 Teasers
NFL Week 14 looks like one of the best for teasers in some time. Tons of low totals are dotting the board, and many of those games have lines that land smack in the teaser zone.
Seahawks (-7.5) At Texans
The Texans have eliminated all reasonable doubt at this point as to which team is the NFL’s worst.
Yes, they have a somewhat competent defense. But, that simply doesn’t matter when the offense has reached this level of ineptitude. DVOA has them bottom of the barrel in both rushing and passing, which is not something you see too often. Even the pitiful Jets, who have allowed basically every other offense to have its way, held them to 3.7 YPP in good conditions.
Russell Wilson has overall played pretty terribly since returning from injury. He and the Seahawks did have a mini-renaissance against the 49ers but they probably won’t keep playing that well.
So, it’s a spot where their market might be a little strong, so you might be hesitant to lay a big number. Rightfully so, but a teaser looks pretty dreamy here with a really short total and the worst offense in the league on the other sideline.
Broncos (-8) Vs. Lions
If the Lions had star RB D’Andre Swift for Week 14, they would potentially make for an intriguing play on the road in Denver. After all, the Broncos have just lost so many bodies up front that they’ve become quite weak against the run, ranking 25th in DVOA there. Swift finding a couple of holes could result in long TDs.
Jamaal Williams finding those same holes, not so much. Williams is more of a “grind for five yards at a time” type, and sustaining those drives against a defensive whiz like Vic Fangio won’t be easy.
When the Lions finally got their win this past week, it came thanks to the passing offense, but the Broncos have stronger stuff there. They rank 10th in EPA/play allowed through the air. TJ Hockenson looks like the only guy with any potential to move the needle for the Lions, if he can find some matchups with linebackers.
On the road in a tough environment, this shapes up pretty poorly for the Lions offense, and their atrocious defense should allow some points to Denver. Another solid favorite here, this time at home with an even lower total, the Broncos fit all of the teaser criteria.
Ravens (+2.5) At Browns
Yet again, we find a very low total here, this time . Both teams struggled mightily to move the ball against each other just a couple of weeks ago. Here’s a sampling of how the Browns and Ravens performed in Week 12:
- 4.2 YPP combined
- Two total red zone trips
- Six turnovers
Both offenses have lately just performed severely below where they started the season. Injuries have hampered both teams greatly. Lamar Jackson’s passing has fallen off a cliff as he’s become shockingly interception-prone. Baker Mayfield just looks like a shell of himself while trying to play through a shoulder injury.
Basically, expect another low-scoring dogfight in the cold, and that means teasing the Ravens up should make for a pretty strong play here.
The worry here comes from the erratic aforementioned play of Jackson. The Ravens overcame his errors last time partially because the Browns handed it right back on two fumbles plus another turnover on downs. They can’t count on that happening again.
Other Potential NFL Week 14 Teasers
Falcons (+2.5) At Panthers
When we last saw the Panthers, Cam Newton put up one of the most bizarre stat lines you will ever see. He completed just 5-of-21 but those five completions went for 92 yards. He also threw 2 INTs and played poorly enough in the aggregate to get benched for PJ Walker. Walker, by the way, managed to “outduel” Newton somehow, undercutting his 5.9 QBR with a 1.9 of his own.
It’s not easy to have this unproductive of a passing offense with 2021 rules artificially boosting everyone.
When you look at these teams’ passing offenses, you might find yourself tempted to think they both stink, with the Panthers 31st in DVOA and the Falcons 26th. That undersells the difference as Carolina, Detroit and Houston are off in their own stratosphere of awful.
What little success Newton had passing often came thanks to Christian McCaffrey, now out for the season.
The Panthers’ defense still rates pretty highly almost across the board, but it’s difficult to see them running away from the Falcons when they can barely field an offense.
Titans (-8.5) Vs. Jaguars
Even coming off the bye, the Titans remain short-handed at best and practice squad level at worst in terms of offensive weapons. Derrick Henry and AJ Brown remain definitely out, and Julio Jones might return as he’s been designated for return from IR and has 21 days to be moved to the active roster.
If this were 2015, the Titans might be in business, but this year’s Julio Jones probably doesn’t move the needle much.
Luckily, whatever they have left should still work better than what the Jaguars have been trotting out. The Jags have built their team to win in 1950, but playing sound football on both sides of the ball in the running game while being atrocious in the passing game means you’re terrible in 2021.
Maybe you don’t trust the Titans to put away the Jags with ease, but a teaser can mitigate your fears if you just need them to win by a field goal. TheLines‘ tracking still sees more -9s than -8.5s but if you can find -8.5 at a book with reasonable teaser pricing, this one is in play.