The Recency Report: NFL Week 13 Market Moves And Week 14 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on November 29, 2019
nfl look-ahead lines week 14

Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing week’s games on the schedule.

In this article, we also take a look at the current lines compared to the opening lines at FanDuel from the previous week.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to the previous week’s scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

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Week 13 market movement

Here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 13 NFL card:

  • The biggest market move this week from the look ahead lines was a five-point move on the Bears who closed -5.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook after the opening last week as a 1.5-point underdog at Detroit. The movement was important as the Bears won by four on Thanksgiving Day.
  • The Panthers, Eagles, and Chiefs are all up a point to 9.5-point favorites as of Friday morning. Sportsbooks appear to be protecting teaser bets on the popular big favorites as well.
  • The Ravens are up to a 5.5-point favorite at most books against the 49ers. Baltimore is on a 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS run, averaging 40 points per game over the last five. The Ravens are now the second choice to win the Super Bowl at +340 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is now the prohibitive favorite to win the MVP award with odds of -240 at DraftKings followed by Seahawks QB Russell Wilson at +300.
  • The Buccaneers are now a one-point road favorite as bettors show no interest in the Jaguars after Jacksonville opened a 3.5-point favorite on the look-ahead line.
  • The Browns have also flipped to a road favorite at Pittsburgh after the Steelers were a 2.5-point favorite on the look-ahead line.  Cleveland (5-6) beat Pittsburgh (6-5) 21-7 in Week 10 as a 3-point favorite. The Steelers are currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff chase, but Cleveland is back in the wild card race and bettors are believing in the Browns.
GameOpenCurrent
Green Bay at NY GiantsGB -7.5GB -6.5
Washington at CarolinaCAR -8.5CAR -9.5
San Francisco at BaltimoreBAL -4.5BAL -5.5
Tennessee at IndianapolisIND -4.5IND -2.5
Philadelphia at MiamiPHI -8.5PHI -9.5
Oakland at Kansas CityKC -8.5KC -9.5
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville JAX -3.5TB -1
NY Jets at CincinnatiNYJ -3NYJ -3
LA Rams at ArizonaLAR -3.5LAR -3
LA Chargers at DenverDEN -1.5LAC -3
Cleveland at Pittsburgh PIT -2.5CLE -1.5
New England at HoustonNE -4.5NE -3.5
Minnesota at SeattleMIN -3SEA -2.5

Market Game of the Week: Monday Night Football features Minnesota at Seattle (-3) in a key playoff-impacting contest that will draw a lof of handle from bettors. Both teams are in the division hunt and playing for a potential first-round playoff bye. The Vikings (8-3) are tied with the Packers (8-3) in the NFC North with Green Bay currently holding the tie-breaker advantage. The Packers and Vikings play again in Week 16 in Minneapolis. The Seahawks (9-2) trail the 49ers (10-1) in the NFC West but Seattle beat San Francisco 27-24 in overtime in Week 11, and those two teams play again at Seattle in Week 17.

The Seahawks and Vikings are in great position as NFC wild card leaders, and Seattle is +1100 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel Sportsbook. Minnesota remains the best value at +1900 odds to capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

The Vikings and Seahawks are both averaging 26 points per game this season while Minnesota is No. 4 in the league on offense averaging 6.1 yards per play. The Seahawks average 5.9 yards per play to rank No. 6. But Seattle (385) is slightly ahead of the Vikings (378) in yards per game. Defense is better on the Vikings side, allowing 18.6 points per game to rank No. 6 while the Seahawks allow 23.9 PPG to rank No. 21. The Vikings allow an average of 338 yards per game at 5.3 yards per play to the Seahawks 370 YPG at 5.8 yards per play to rank in the bottom quartile of the league in both categories.

The Vikings enter off their bye week, but have been outgained in each of their last three contests while going 2-1 against Denver, Dallas and Kansas City. The Vikings are 41-17-3 ATS (70.7%) versus non-division opponents under head coach Mike Zimmer.

NFL Week 14 look-ahead lines

The push for the playoffs is in full swing and the current conference leaders heading into December that would have the top two seeds and a bye week if the playoffs started now would be New England (10-1) and Baltimore (9-2) in the AFC and San Francisco (10-1) and New Orleans (10-2) in the NFC. The Ravens are two games clear of division leaders Kansas City and Houston for a first round bye, and Baltimore has the tie-breaker over New England for the No. 1 seed if the two teams are tied with the best record at the end of the regular season.

The 49ers and Saints have a huge game Week 14 in New Orleans with the Saints a two-point favorite on the look-ahead line. The Vikings (8-3) and Packers (8-3) are battling it out for the NFC North title and a potential first round bye if either team can overtake the Saints or 49ers. The Vikings and Packers will settle the score in Week 16 when they play in Minneapolis. Green Bay won the first meeting 21-16 in Week 2.

GameFanDuel Spread
Cowboys at BearsDAL -3.5
Ravens at BillsBAL -6.5
Redskins at PackersGB -14.5
Broncos at TexansHOU -7.5
49ers at Saints NO -3
Bengals at BrownsCLE -10.5
Panthers at FalconsATL -1.5
Lions at VikingsMIN -12.5
Dolphins at JetsNYJ -7.5
Colts at BuccaneersTB -1.5
Chargers at JaguarsLAC -1
Chiefs at PatriotsNE -4.5
Steelers at CardinalsARI -1.5
Titans at RaidersTEN - 1
Seahawks at RamsSEA -2.5
Giants at EaglesPHI -9

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. The highest projected point spreads from the summer for Week 14 (you’ll notice some major adjustments):

  • NY Giants at Philadelphia (-9)
  • Washington at Green Bay (-9)
  • San Francisco at New Orleans (-8.5)
  • Detroit at Minnesota (-8)
  • Cincinnati at Cleveland (-8)
  • Seattle at LA Rams (-7.5)
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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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