NFL Week 14 Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers

Written By Eli Hershkovich on December 11, 2022
Dolphins Chargers Odds

The Miami Dolphins square off against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, Dec. 11 at 8:20 p.m. ET. This west coast affair on the NFL Week 14 odds board showcases Dolphins – Chargers odds with a spread of Miami and on the moneyline. The total is set at .

In this post, we’ll dive into everything you need to know before placing a bet on Sunday Night Football odds, including matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Dolphins – Chargers Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the Dolphins – Chargers odds table above, click the dropdown menu to switch to moneylines or over/unders. 

Betting on the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Dolphins need to win by four points or more if you bet on them against the spread, as they’re priced as a three-point road favorite at most shops. Conversely, a spread bet on the Chargers would need Los Angeles to lose by at most two points or win outright.

The total is the number of combined points that the two teams will score. Bettors can bet “over” or “under” on how many total points will be scored in the game.

  • Join our NFL Discord channel to receive an immediate notification when any of our staff members places a bet, including on the Dolphins – Chargers odds. Sign up under the #roles server.

Dolphins – Chargers Odds: Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet.

Chargers at Dolphins: Betting News

Although the Chargers have accrued 68% of the spread handle while the Dolphins are taking in 61% of the tickets. This data comes from BetMGM, which is trading Los Angeles at . Additional updates on the Dolphins – Chargers odds can be found below.

Dolphins at Chargers: Weather

A high temperature of 57 degrees Fahrenheit, with scattered clouds and 15 mph winds, are the expected conditions at SoFi Stadium.

Dolphins at Chargers: Injury Report

Miami Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatus
Terron ArmsteadOTPectoralQuestionable
Durham SmytheTEKneeQuestionable
Teddy BridgewaterQBKneeQuestionable
River CracraftWRCalfDoubtful
Justin ZimmerDTBackQuestionable

Los Angeles Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatus
Trey PipkinsOTKneeDoubtful
Bryce CallahanCBGroinDoubtful
Donald ParhamTEConcussionQuestionable
Richard RodgersTEKneeOut

Dolphins Offense vs. Chargers Defense

Dolphins OffenseStats (Rank)Chargers Defense
24.9 (8)Points/Gm25.8 (30)
0.4 (1)Points/Play0.4 (14)
380.2 (4)Yards/Gm371.7 (26)
290.5 (2)Pass Yards/Gm220.0 (19)
89.7 (28)Rush Yards/Gm151.7 (29)
6.3 (2)Yards/Play6.1 (31)
8.1 (1)Yards/Pass7.0 (24)
4.0 (24)Yards/Rush5.4 (32)
38.7% (22)3rd Down %43.8% (25)
62.5% (6)Red Zone %52.5% (8)
15 (16)Turnovers17 (9)
26 (11)Sacks22 (26)

Chargers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense

Chargers OffenseStats (Rank)Dolphins Defense
22.7 (14)Points/Gm24.1 (25)
0.3 (15)Points/Play0.4 (14)
351.2 (13)Yards/Gm344.0 (17)
266.5 (6)Pass Yards/Gm233.5 (21)
84.7 (31)Rush Yards/Gm110.5 (8)
5.2 (20)Yards/Play5.4 (13)
6.2 (21)Yards/Pass6.5 (13)
3.7 (30)Yards/Rush4.4 (12)
42.0% (11)3rd Down %41.8% (24)
50.0% (24)Red Zone %64.1% (28)
13 (10)Turnovers12 (24)
27 (13)Sacks29 (17)

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TheLines Podcast: NFL Week 14 Betting Breakdown

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Dolphins at Chargers: Betting Insights

Why Dolphins Can Cover The Spread

Although Miami signal caller Tua Tagovailoa struggled against the 49ers in Week 13, he still owns the second-highest Dropback EPA — behind only Patrick Mahomes.

With that being said, Tagovailoa’s production is slightly inflated by the inferior competition he’s faced of late. Mind you, each of his last four opponents showcase a below-average Pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders). This metric is defense-adjusted Value Over Average, adjusting their overall to take into account the quality of offensive opponents.

Brandon Staley’s unit may be without both All-Pro safety Derwin James and nickelback Bryce Callahan, making it more exposable in that regard. The Chargers are already without stud corner J.C. Jackson, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 7. Hence, Tagovailoa could wind up continuing to receive another dose of positive variance.

Nevertheless, they still boast an effective pass rush — even without defensive end Joey Bosa — led by Khalil Mack. If Los Angeles’ defensive front can generate havoc against the Dolphins’ exploitable offensive line, it’ll put Tagovailoa in a vulnerable position. He ranks No. 33 among all QBs in pressured catchable pass rate.

If Miami faces a negative script, it’ll force Mike McDaniels to turn away from his ground game, which he employs at the fifth-lowest rate. That’s his opposition’s biggest liability.

Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds

Why Chargers Can Cover The Spread

While the Los Angeles’ defense is certainly more vulnerable in its banged-up state, the Dolphins are surrendering the seventh-highest Dropback Success Rate. For context, a play is successful if teams produce:

  • 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
  • 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
  • 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down

Herbert has underperformed in 2022 after beginning the season with the second-shortest NFL MVP odds. His 20th-ranked Dropback EPA is baked into his current +25000 price tag.

However, budding wideout Mike Williams has missed four of the last five games, as well as his limited participation in the Chargers’ latest loss to the Chiefs. If he returns to full strength after dealing with an ankle injury, expect Herbert to take full advantage of Miami’s defensive backs.

Final Thoughts

I backed Los Angeles on Wednesday, which you’ll find in our aforementioned Discord betting channel. Expect Staley’s group to rise to the occasion, especially with their playoff hopes on the line. Good luck with your own wagers on Dolphins – Chargers odds.

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