The NFL has backloaded the second half of the regular season schedule with more meaningful division games, and those division duels will have much of the betting action while determining which teams reach the playoffs and playoff positioning and seeding. Review the NFL Week 14 look-ahead lines below and start preparing to watch and wager on some key division games and prime time games with playoff contenders.
Adjusting to market moves
The Saints look-ahead line (-7.5) for Week 13 did not move, but bettors that sided with the streaking Saints or got tricky with a teaser bet on New Orleans found out the hard way that riding hot streaks or paying a price on the betting line can have consequences. Will the Cowboys 13-10 upset of the Saints on Thursday kickoff more upsets in Week 13? There are a total of seven road favorites in Week 13 action, and much of the betting action is on those road favorites, which is often a lower-percentage play from a betting perspective.
We continue to see some of the big adjustments in the betting lines based on the previous week’s results, and while more favorites have continued to cover over the past month, perhaps the Cowboys cashing in will be the game that turns the tide heading into December. As mentioned in last week’s look ahead lines article, “Don’t expect that to continue into December … a correction is likely in order.” That despite many teams being eliminated from the playoffs while taking more points as underdogs. The contrary nature of the NFL produces surprising results like the Cowboys over the Saints, and the sportsbooks cashed in on Dallas knowing that many bettors continue to ride the hot teams like the Saints and other winning teams.
Week 13 look-ahead lines and major moves
Many bettors react more to recent results and are often unwilling to bet on bad teams. Those teams will take fewer bets and less betting action in Week 13: Cowboys (+7.5), Jaguars (+4), Buccaneers (+3.5), NY Giants (+4), Bengals (+5), Lions (+10), Raiders (+15), 49ers (+10) and Vikings (+5). All but Minnesota and Dallas are losing teams, and the Vikings and Cowboys play the powerful Patriots and Saints, which many public bettors like to support.
According to the Action Network and their betting platform partner Sports Insights, which tracks public betting trends from consensus sportsbooks, those underdogs listed above are all taking less than 37% of the bets. So the percentage of bets on the public favorites are at least two out of every three side bets wagered.
For the Week 13 games on Sunday, Dec. 2, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas or New Jersey and current line: Notice the huge point spread swing from Cincinnati a 2.5-point favorite vs Denver to now the Bengals a 5.5-point home underdog to the Broncos.
- Indianapolis at Jacksonville (IND -1.5, FanDuel) – Current line Colts -4
- Buffalo at Miami (MIA -6, FanDuel) – Current line Dolphins -3.5
- Denver at Cincinnati (CIN -2.5, SuperBook) – Current line Broncos -5.5
- LA Rams at Detroit (LAR -7, SuperBook) – Current line Rams -10
- Arizona at Green Bay (GB -11.5, SuperBook) – Current line Packers -14
- NY Jets at Tennessee (TEN -5.5, FanDuel) – Current line Titans -8
- San Francisco at Seattle (SEA -7.5, SuperBook) – Current line Seahawks -10
The major adjustments and market moves are against the losing teams again except for the Dolphins and Bills game, which had Miami too high on the look-ahead line but last week’s Bills win has dropped that line. The Dolphins have also lost four of their last five games with their only win over the bottom-feeding New York Jets.
The sportsbooks understand the need to adjust with most bettors unwilling to bet on the losing teams. Value will be available the rest of the year on many underdogs, like the Cowboys who beat the streaking Saints, and even the worst teams.
Scoring is at a record high 48.0 points per game this season, but follow the weather more closely at this time of year. Try to anticipate both side and totals moves in advance as potential poor weather conditions as game day nears.
NFL Week 14 look-ahead betting lines
The Week 14 NFL look ahead lines show seven division games (*) with some key games of interest impacting playoff positioning and teams pushing for the playoffs (Indianapolis at Houston and Philadelphia at Dallas). The two prime time games lead the TV ratings and betting action. Sunday night the LA Rams play at Chicago with both teams in first place, and Monday night’s feature are two teams leading the NFC wild-card chase with Minnesota at Seattle.
|Game||Westgate Line||FanDuel Line|
|Jacksonville at Tennessee||TEN -6||TEN -5.5|
|Baltimore at Kansas City||KC -9.5||KC -8.5|
|New England at Miami||NE -10||NE -7.5|
|New Orleans at Tampa Bay||NO -10.5||NO -9|
|New York Jets at Buffalo||BUF -3||BUF -3|
|Carolina at Cleveland||CLE -1||CAR -1.5|
|Indianapolis at Houston||HOU -3 (-120)||HOU -3|
|NY Giants at Washington||WASH -3 (+100)||WASH -3|
|Atlanta at Green Bay||GB -7.5||GB -6|
|Cincinnati at LA Chargers||LAC -15.5||LAC -13|
|Denver at San Francisco||DEN -4.5||DEN -4|
|Pittsburgh at Oakland||PIT -12.5||PIT -11|
|Philadelphia at Dallas||DAL -3.5 (+100)||DAL -3|
|Detroit at Arizona||DET -3 (-120)||DET -3.5|
|LA Rams at Chicago||LAR -3.5||LAR -3|
|Minnesota at Seattle||SEA -3 (+100)||SEA -3|