Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 14 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.
Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 14 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.
All lines come from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Dec. 7, rounded to the nearest whole number.
NFL Week 14 Implied Team Totals
| Team | Implied Team Total | Opponent | H/A | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 31 | Texans | Home | -16 | 46 |
| Lions | 28 | Vikings | Home | -2.5 | 52.5 |
| Dolphins | 28 | Chargers | Away | -3.5 | 52 |
| Chiefs | 27 | Broncos | Away | -9.5 | 43.5 |
| Bills | 27 | Jets | Home | -9.5 | 43.5 |
| Bengals | 27 | Browns | Home | -6 | 47 |
| Eagles | 26 | Giants | Away | -7 | 44.5 |
| Raiders | 25 | Rams | Away | -6 | 44 |
| Vikings | 25 | Lions | Away | 2.5 | 52.5 |
| Chargers | 24 | Dolphins | Home | 3.5 | 52 |
| Seahawks | 24 | Panthers | Home | -4 | 44 |
| Patriots | 23 | Cardinals | Away | -2 | 44 |
| Titans | 22 | Jaguars | Home | -4 | 40.5 |
| Browns | 21 | Bengals | Away | 6 | 47 |
| Cardinals | 21 | Patriots | Home | 2 | 44 |
| 49ers | 20 | Buccaneers | Home | -3 | 37 |
| Panthers | 20 | Seahawks | Away | 4 | 44 |
| Steelers | 20 | Ravens | Home | -2.5 | 37 |
| Giants | 19 | Eagles | Home | 7 | 44.5 |
| Rams | 19 | Raiders | Home | 6 | 44 |
| Jaguars | 18 | Titans | Away | 4 | 40.5 |
| Ravens | 17 | Steelers | Away | 2.5 | 37 |
| Buccaneers | 17 | 49ers | Away | 3 | 37 |
| Jets | 17 | Bills | Away | 9.5 | 43.5 |
| Broncos | 17 | Chiefs | Home | 9.5 | 43.5 |
| Texans | 15 | Cowboys | Away | 16 | 46 |
Highest NFL Week 14 Implied Team Totals
| Team | Implied Team Total | DraftKings Team Total | Over Price | Under Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 31 | 30.5 | -115 | -105 |
| Dolphins | 28 | 27.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Lions | 28 | 27.5 | +105 | -125 |
Dallas Cowboys
Perhaps in response to skepticism in some circles, the Dallas Cowboys absolutely exploded against the Colts in Week 13. More specifically, they exploded in the fourth quarter. Locked in a 21-19 battle, they reeled off 33 unanswered in the fourth to turn the game into a laugher.
Can the offense keep rolling and surpass this huge team total?
Playing the Texans should help. While Houston actually played pretty well on defense last week, how much of that was due to Deshaun Watson needing time to get up to NFL game speed? The numbers are pretty rough, particularly against the run.
That could be the key to Dallas running it up here. Tony Pollard ripped off a 30-yard touchdown with the game mostly in hand in Week 13. Even Malik Davis got in on the act with a 23-yard score in garbage time. Against the 31st-ranked run defense by DVOA, Dallas might still score late even if their main goal is to kill the clock.
Detroit Lions
After hanging 40 on the Jaguars, the Lions have climbed to sixth in scoring offense at a more than acceptable 26.3 PPG.
The key has been the health of offensive weapons D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown, as well continued strong play from the offensive line. Jared Goff’s rating falls nearly 50 points when pressured according to PFF, a monstrous number. But he’s protected by a solid line and has lopped off about one-third of last year’s sack rate.
The Vikings bring a bottom-10 rate of pressure. That may explain some of the market steam behind the Lions, who have gone from +3 underdogs in look-ahead lines to now favorites.
Lowest NFL Week 14 Implied Team Totals
| Team | Implied Team Total | DraftKings Team Total | Over Price | Under Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 15 | 14.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Broncos | 17 | 16.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Jets | 17 | 16.5 | -115 | -105 |
| Buccaneers | 17 | 16.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Ravens | 17 | 17.5 | +100 | -120 |
Houston Texans
From Weeks 1-11, the Texans started Davis Mills at QB. They were really bad on offense, 31st in EPA/play. But it was just normal, within-the-bounds of reason awful. Three other offenses were right there in the same ballpark.
The team tried switching to Kyle Allen at QB and they hit catastrophic levels of bad. The -0.368 EPA/play they put up in Weeks 12 and 13 was about three-times worse than their previous mark. It was more than twice as bad as the 31st-ranked offense in that frame.
Thankfully for the Texans players, the team has done the only rational thing, albeit a week late. Mills will return to quarterbacking the team.
Granted, he has an incredibly tough assignment against the Cowboys and their top-ranked pressure rate. But, the Texans should at least look like a professional offense again.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have not exactly been killing it on offense lately either. They have recent games scoring 13 points and 10 points, which is somewhat understandable when two of your top three receiving threats are 36-year-old DeSean Jackson and Chiefs castoff Demarcus Robinson.
And now, they’ve lost Lamar Jackson, seemingly for at least one week, possibly longer.
Luckily for the team, Tyler Huntley has done an admirable job filling in for Jackson dating to last season. Huntley earned a solid 68.3 grade from PFF, with particularly high marks for his rushing prowess.
The bad news is the Steelers will be no picnic. With TJ Watt back in the fold, this unit has returned to top-10 type of production. They rank ninth in EPA/play allowed since the ace pass rusher came back, though the competition has been soft. The market does not think much of Huntley’s chances here.
Other Notable Implied Team Totals
| Team | Implied Team Total | DraftKings Team Total | Over Price | Under Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 21 | 20.5 | -105 | -115 |
| 49ers | 20 | 19.5 | -125 | +105 |
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson fell flat on his face in his highly scrutinized debut. Caveats about missing more than an entire year of competitive football apply, but it was still striking to see the Browns score just six offensive points. Half of that came on an eight-yard drive following a muffed punt, too.
In fact, since the Browns gave up a safety as well, one could argue their offense totaled one net point in this game.
Clearly, the market expects a significant bounce back, even against a Bengals unit that has done solid work for most of the season.
Unless Watson gets up to speed quickly, the Browns won’t sniff this number, in all likelihood. Given his tremendous track record on the field, better things should be coming. But, how quickly?
San Francisco 49ers
What will Brock Purdy bring to the table in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo? That’s the central question swirling around this game.
Purdy didn’t have to do much, surprisingly enough, in his competitive debut, despite the team facing a challenging matchup against the Dolphins. But, this is a seventh-round rookie. The track record of such players is very far from promising.
Sure, Shanahan’s system and playing with a stacked roster helps. But, the Buccaneers have a fearsome defense of their own, ranking eighth in both DVOA and EPA/play.
For a more in-depth breakdown of the 49ers without Garoppolo, click here.
