Eli’s Week 13 NFL Picks: My Favorite Spread And Total Bets

Written By Eli Hershkovich on December 4, 2022
NFL Picks

After going 37-24 (61.0%) with my bets through the first 12 weeks of the season, let’s keep things rolling. Below are my NFL picks for Week 13 odds.

There won’t ever be a bet I post that I haven’t wagered on myself. Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) to receive an immediate notification when I bet anything, including college basketball oddsClick on any of the odds to place a wager on these NFL picks.

Jaguars at Lions: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Although the Jaguars notched an impressive comeback win over the Ravens on Sunday, they were still outgained in Yards Per Play (YPP). Baltimore’s receivers also dropped a pair of would-be touchdowns on drives that resulted in field goals. Hence, Doug Pederson’s team is getting a bit too much credit in the market because of positive variance.

Conversely, the Lions’ offense is slightly undervalued despite its 7-0 ATS record this season with tailback D’Andre Swift in the lineup. You should never blindly tail a trend, but their top-five EPA in that regard is certainly notable.

Moreover, Jared Goff & Co. are up against a Jacksonville secondary that’s yielding the 12th-highest Dropback EPA. It may be without stud safety Andre Cisco (shoulder), too. Both of those factors should position Goff for another productive outing.

If the Lions’ defensive front, which is blitzing at the fifth-highest clip (31.2%) across the NFL, can take advantage of the Jaguars’ susceptible offensive line, they’ll accrue enough pressure to mitigate Trevor Lawrence’s efficiency versus their own exploitable secondary.

Beat The Closing Line Podcast: NFL Week 13 Betting Breakdown

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Commanders at Giants: Spread, Moneyline, Total

For a second consecutive week, I’m playing a total involving the Giants. Hopefully it doesn’t end as pitifully as our under on Thanksgiving.

Not only do the Commanders showcase the third-slowest tempo in neutral situations (per Football Outsiders), but New York owns a below-average pace in those instances as well. A more methodical game script on both sides is suitable for an under.

With that in mind, Giants coach Brian Daboll employs the league’s fifth-highest rushing rate (50.4%). Their offensive line is healthier than it was against the Cowboys, yet they’ll face a Washington defense that possesses the fourth-rated Rush DVOA. This metric adjusts for the strength of the opponent, exhibiting their dominance versus opposing ground-heavy attacks.

Assuming Saquon Barkley is consistently bottled up, Daboll will be forced to rely on fourth-year QB Daniel Jones. Daboll has refined Jones’ accuracy, but the Commanders’ secondary is allowing the third-lowest Dropback Success Rate (SR).

For context, a play is deemed successful if it produces:

  • 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
  • 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
  • 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down

On the flip side, New York’s secondary is still without corner Adoree’ Jackson and safety Xavier McKinney. Even with the Giants’ collective lineup adding some reinforcements this week, their 28th-rated Pass DVOA speaks for itself.

However, so does Taylor Heinicke’s inproficient play, notching the seventh-lowest Dropback EPA since taking over under center in Week 7. Considering all of these variables, I’m willing to back the under for the second of my NFL picks.

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