The Recency Report: NFL Week 12 Market Moves And Week 13 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on November 22, 2019

Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing week’s games on the schedule.

In this article, we also take a look at the current lines compared to the opening lines at FanDuel from the previous week.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to the previous week’s scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 12 market movement

Here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 12 NFL card:

  • The biggest market move this week from the look ahead lines is a three-point move on the Saints up to -9.5 over the Panthers.
  • Follow the weather forecasts more closely this time of year, as NFL weather shows possible rain showers of at least 50% at kickoff for this week’s games at New England, Philadelphia and New York for the Jets game.
  • Fans will get their pre-Thanksgiving fill with the Sunday Night Football feature Green Bay (8-2) at San Francisco (9-1). The line held steady mid-week at 49ers -3 with extra vig (-120) as the advance line was -3.5. The Packers enter off a bye with a half-game lead over the Vikings in the NFC North. The 49ers pulled out a last-minute win over the Cardinals last week to maintain a one-game lead over the Seahawks in the NFC West.
  • Other games with more market interest and injuries to note along with the betting lines include Seattle (8-2) at Philadelphia (5-5). The line has dipped to Eagles -1.5 with star offensive tackle Lane Johnson in concussion protocol and a depleted wide receiver corps for the Eagles. The Seahawks join the Ravens as two of the most heavily-bet teams this week.
  • Of course, the Patriots (9-1) are taking more than 66% of bets against the Cowboys (6-4) with New England a 6.5-point favorite.
  • The Raiders (6-4) have been among the biggest surprises thus far as Oakland pushes towards the playoffs and just a half game behind Kansas City in the AFC West. Those two teams play next week, but the Raiders must first take care of business on the road this week looking for their fourth straight win at New York against the Jets (3-7). Oakland is taking more bets as a three-point road favorite, but sharp action is supporting gang green and the Jets No. 1 rush defense (79 YPG/3.0 YPR) with QB Sam Darnold and the offense untracked last week for 400 yards albeit against Washington in a 34-17 rout of the Redskins.
Game OpenCurrent
Indianapolis at HoustonHOU -4.5HOU -3.5
Miami at ClevelandCLE -10.5CLE -11
Denver at BuffaloBUF -5.5BUF -4
Pittsburgh at CincinnatiPIT -7PIT -6.5
NY GIants at ChicagoCHI -7.5CHI -6.5
Oakland at NY JetsOAK -3OAK -3
Carolina at New OrleansNO -6.5NO -9.5
Tampa Bay at AtlantaATL -3ATL -4
Detroit at WashingtonDET -3DET -3.5
Jacksonville at TennesseeTEN -3TEN -3.5
Dallas at New EnglandNE -7NE -6.5
Green Bay at San FranciscoSF -3.5SF -3
Seattle at PhiladelphiaPHI -3PHI -1.5
Baltimore at LA RamsBAL -1BAL -3

Market Game of the Week: Baltimore (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams. The Monday night match-up will be the biggest decision of the week for the sportsbooks who may want to offer an odds boost on the Rams. More than 90% of the point spread bets are on the Ravens at DraftKings Sportsbook. The moneyline bets are also strongly favoring the Ravens as the bandwagon on Baltimore and QB Lamar Jackson is sold out.

The Ravens were a one-point favorite on the look-ahead line at FanDuel, but moved to -3 with extra vig (-120) as of Thursday evening. The Ravens are on a roll and three games in front in the AFC North with six straight wins and a 4-0 ATS run.

Meanwhile, the Rams’ confidence in Jared Goff is waning, and a loss will nearly eliminate last year’s NFC Super Bowl entrant from the playoff picture. Like last week’s Monday night game when the Chiefs took game day money as the favorite, expect the Ravens to continue with much of the betting support and a rising line could be in order as the sportsbooks beg for some Baltimore miscues and mistakes to allow the Rams to win and cover.

NFL Week 13 look-ahead lines

The bye week schedule is complete as all teams play each week moving forward. The push for the playoffs is in full swing along with Thanksgiving week games in Week 13. FanDuel Sportsbook has those three Thanksgiving Day games lined, and the rest of the games available as they provide advance lines on Thursday.

GameFanDuel Spread
Bears at LionsDET -1.5
Bills at CowboysDAL -7.5
Saints at FalconsNO -5.5
Packers at NY GiantsGB -7.5
Redskins at PanthersCAR -8.5
49ers at RavensBAL -4.5
Titans at ColtsIND -4.5
Eagles at DolphinsPHI -8.5
Raiders at ChiefsKC -8.5
Buccaneers at JaguarsJAX -3.5
NY Jets at BengalsNYJ -3
Rams at CardinalsLAR -3.5
Chargers at BroncosDEN -1.5
Browns at SteelersPIT -2.5
Patriots at TexansNE -4.5
Vikings at Seahawks SEA -3

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. The highest projected point spreads over the summer for Week 13:

  • Oakland at Kansas City (-13)
  • LA Rams (-8) at Arizona
  • Buffalo at Dallas (-7.5)
  • Tennessee at Indianapolis (-7)

The biggest adjustment from those openers is Raiders down to an 8.5-point underdog in their rematch and now AFC West first-place showdown with the Chiefs.

Other current games of interest from those summer lines at CG Technology include:

  • San Francisco at Baltimore (-4)
  • New England (-3) at Houston
  • Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
  • Minnesota at Seattle (-3)
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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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